As everyone who reads my OpenLeft.com posts know, I am never one to say it's done until the last hour of the last day. I'll be nervous and edgy until the end, worried that McCain will somehow manage to come back in Pennsylvania and win every single close and near-close state, worried that there is some kind of uber-Bradley effect on the Presidential level there is no way to measure worried about all the different ways elections can be stolen.
And I am too wary and too fricking superstitious to ever do the kind of "Obama's won" post Chris did the other day. Just seeing the headline sent superstitious shivers down my spine (trying saying that fast).
Having said all that though, unlike some folks who see evidence of a tightening at the end, the news over the last four days have got my optimistic, non-superstitious side of my brain thinking we might be heading toward a bigger rather than smaller victory. Here's the evidence I see:
As Chris and many others have noted, Presidential race numbers tend to close at the end rather than get bigger. But the tracking averages the last few days show no signs of that, and maybe even an uptick towards Obama.
As Nate Silver noted, the polls that include cell phones as well as landlines show a considerably higher average number than the more traditional, just landline polls. Since I tend to think the cell phone polls are more accurate, that gives me hope.
These early voting numbers really are stunning- as Chris noted, very different and far better for us than four years ago.
Congressional Republicans seem in full-scale "save our ass, the ship's going down" mode. I suspect the toxicity of the Republican brand, the Obama GOTV operation, and the fact that for the first time since 1992 we have a lot more money out there than they do is making them feel like they will have big losses. Remember, when they were outspending us hand over fist, that dollar edge allowed them to win most of the close Congressional races- even in 2006, they won 63% of the House races decided by 3% or less. If we win just half of the close races this time, it could put us over 30-seat House pickup. And which ever party has the momentum at the end tends to win most of the close Senate elections.
The Obama organization just seems like they are destroying the McCain side. It could well be tough for them to win any of the close states if we're as strong on the ground as we seem.
Whatever jolt Palin gave to the GOP base seems to have long ago faded. We have a 23% gap in the very enthusiastic number between our voters and theirs, again leading me to think we'll win most of the close races.
McCain and Palin are acting like they know it's over. Why would McCain go to New Hampshire when he is so far behind there and it's only four electoral votes except for a wistful nostalgia tour? Why show up in Tennessee of all places? Why are they each going to their own home state on election night? If their internals showed them surging, I think their schedules would look very different.
I'm sure that as soon as I post this I'll think of 12 reasons to be scared again, but it sure feels like things are good out there. I'm just hoping that by admitting that I have these optimistic thoughts doesn't jinx us...
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