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President Obama is giving a speech on the economy today in Wisconsin. Conveniently, is the home state of the lone Democratic Senator, Russ Feingold, who has vowed to block the Wall Street reform bill (Washington's Maria Cantwell is undecided). This trip is reminiscent of President Obama's visit to Ohio late in the health reform fight, a trip which played a role in persuading Representative Dennis Kucinich to vote in favor of that bill.
Don't expect any political pressure to move Feingold, however, given his long track record of taking iconoclastic positions. Feingold voted against using military force in the Balkans and Iraq, declined DSCC "soft money" in his 1998 re-election campaign, voted against 1999 financial deregulation, was lone vote against the Patriot Act in 2001, first Senator to propose a withdrawal timeline from Iraq in 2005, introduced a censure measure on Bush in 2006, voted against TARP in both October 2008 and January 2009, etc. Even if I do not approve of Feingold's actions on the Wall Street reform bill, his overall record is truly inspiring.
While the trip to Wisconsin may be just a coincidence, it could also be the start of a two week long fight over final passage of the conference committee report on the Wall Street reform bill. Continued demurring from a number of Senators (most notably Scott Brown), combined with memorial services for Senator Robert Byrd, has all but guaranteed that the Wall Street reform fight will continue over the July recess. Those are the signals coming from top Democrats, too:
As much as Senate Democrats wanted to pass their Wall Street reform bill by the end of the week, the death of Sen. Robert Byrd (D-WV) Monday morning made that almost impossible. Byrd will lie in state in the Capitol for most of tomorrow, and senators will spend much of Friday at a ceremony in West Virginia, eating up a great amount of the week's remaining Senate floor time. As early as yesterday morning, Senate Whip Dick Durbin told reporters it would be difficult to finish up the bill before July 4, and last night after the conference committee adjourned, legislators suggested very strongly that the vote in the Senate would have to wait.
The House of Representatives is expected to pass the conference report today. When Congress returns on Monday, July 12th, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid will most likely file for cloture on the conference report. This will set up a vote on either Tuesday, July 13th, or Wednesday, July 14th. This makes for an intervening period of at least 13 days when opponents of the bill will try to get three of the following five Senators to vote no on cloture: Scott Brown, Maria Cantwell, Susan Collins, Charles Grassley and Olympia Snowe. With Robert Byrd's replacement likely to be sworn in before the vote, Democrats will also need three of those five in order to reach cloture, and send the bill to President Obama's desk later in the week.
So, it's a two week fight, and the terms are best three out of five. We should be able to win this, but there is recent precedent for Democratic members of Congress getting scared by right-wing turnout at townhalls. As I said in the post just below this, it ain't over 'till it's over.
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