Will There be an Obama Convention Bounce?

by: tremayne

Wed Aug 27, 2008 at 17:45


Chris Bowers is feeling no bounce, so far. I tend to think there will be little to no O-bounce for the following reasons:

1. Unlike some previous years, the conventions are back-to-back and this will obscure or cancel out any bounce in the Democrats direction.

2. Giving the length/coverage of the Dem primaries and the lateness in the year of the convention, Obama is more of a known quantity than, say, Kerry was in 2004. John McCain was already a celebrity due to his POW status, his tenure in the Senate, his run in 2000 and his frequent appearances on SNL and the Tonight Show. Known candidates are less likely to "bounce."

3. Media coverage ain't what it used to be. The amount of airtime dedicated to convention coverage has declined over the last several decades. This  reduces the possible bounce.

4. "Mass" Media ain't what it used to be (and maybe that's a good thing). Back before cable and the interweb a person looking to pass some time with media after dinner had few options. If it was convention season, guess what? You were watching the damn convention whether you wanted to or not because it was on all 4 of your stations. Today people who just want some after dinner entertainment have a thousand non-convention media choices. The result is fewer viewers.

5. The previous two points have resulted in, generally,  smaller and small bounces according to this analysis by fladem.

All that said there are some counter arguments:

1. Obama's speech on Thursday could draw big ratings and if he knocks it out of the park it could persuade some undecideds.

2. The ratings for the Republican convention will probably be a little lower because of the "cottage cheese in lime jello" reason. It depends in part on who McCain's VP is. But even Republicans are probably less interested in watching given what most perceive as the likely outcome.

Add it all up and I expect only a return to Obama's summertime polling average lead....about 3-4 points. It may look like a bounce since some national polling shows a dead heat but I think of it more as the "true" state of the race. In November Obama will still have an enthusiasm edge I suspect and a turnout machine advantage as well.

What kind of bounce do you expect? 

 
tremayne :: Will There be an Obama Convention Bounce?

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Will There be an Obama Convention Bounce? | 38 comments
Contradiction: (0.00 / 0)
"2. Giving the length/coverage of the Dem primaries and the lateness in the year of the convention, Obama is more of a known quantity than, say, Kerry was in 2004. John McCain was already a celebrity due to his POW status, his tenure in the Senate, his run in 2000 and his frequent appearances on SNL and the Tonight Show. Known candidates are less likely to "bounce."

Well, by that logic, Kerry should've received a big bounce and Bush should've received no bounce in 2004.  Instead, the exact opposite happened.

my thought is.. (0.00 / 0)
even a well-run Obama convention may yield little upside for him. If, as Chris and others have posited, the 2004 convention was lackluster, that may have countered whatever potential upside Kerry still had.  
[ Parent ]
OpenLeft = Debbie Downer (4.00 / 3)
Man, you guys sure do know how to ruin the most historic, exciting campaign ever.  

did you see the new CNN/Time Polls?  That oughta cheer you up.

ha ha (0.00 / 0)
yes, between the new polls:

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/...

and this beer I'm drinking I feel better already.

Remember: best to expect a little and get a lot than expect a lot and get squat.

[ Parent ]
3-4 points (0.00 / 0)
This sounds about right.  Typically in this campaign, this degree of positive coverage has produced at least a modest bump for Obama, but certainly not enough to assuage any deep fears about our direction.  

But also keep in mind that McCain's cable ads running simultaneous to the convention must be doing a good job blunting the effect, particularly with the "Celebrity" ad which has the effect of making any of the "great speeches" of the convention reinforce this negative meme of Obama as ineffectual celebrity.

But yes, aside from this we have to remember that it will be a long haul, a brutal struggle to the end.  We may well be behind after the convention next week, and will probably have to wait until the debates to pull even again.  This will be a squeaker, but there's nothing wrong with that.  Losing motivation as we fall behind is deeply counter-productive.

Forget the cable ads.. (0.00 / 0)
...when the cable "pundits" are doing anything and everything to hide the good speeches and promote "disunity" talking points...

REID: Voting against us was never part of our arrangement!
SPECTER: I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!
REID: This deal keeps getting worse all the time!
[ Parent ]
I'm going to lay this out... maybe people won't like it. (0.00 / 0)
If we don't start seeing Obama's numbers drastically improve in the next few days, I think we're in for a bit of trouble.  As in last time, the Republicans get to go last, and they know how to put on a convention.  At the very least, they know how to eviscerate a candidate, and they don't care how they'll look doing it, because quite honestly, it probably doesn't even matter in the end...   People will forget about how vile they are and just remember all the nasty things they said about Obama instead. Obama is going to be called a whole host of shitty things next week, including "untested", "dangerous", "terrorist sympathizer", hell.. they may even throw out the "Muslim" thing... in primetime.  They are absolutely vile and have no qualms about it.

So, we get a few hits and stuff on McCain here and there in this one, and we're happy if we get no bounce?  I'm sorry... we're in deep shit if we don't get something out of it, because the Republicans absolutely will. I have to say that this "it's ok if there's no bounce" is the same thing that I heard in 2004... and then suddenly Bush jumped 10 points ahead.

...wtf is with people thinking national polls matter? (0.00 / 0)
And daily tracking polls are worse.

Expecting the daily tracking polls to reflect true change in the electorate that will be meaningful on election day 10 weeks away is just scary.

Focus on helping Obama/Biden win the swing states (all of them, not just the state du jour the media has declared matters most) and work to extend the reach of the campaigns message beyond the traditional media and blogosphere.  Will they win your neighborhood? Your street?  If you live in a really red area, can you get them five extra votes from your neighborhood?   Try the DNC's new neighborhood tools:

http://www.democrats.org/a/200...

Like I said in another thread, the Obama Campaign is playing a long sell, going after a huge shift in voting by assembling a complete arguement one piece at a time, or at least that's what I'm seeing from the outside.

The negativity reflected across this site and others is also not going to help anything, you want to win? You need a positive attitude, confidence and energy.  Attacking the campaign for everything they do different than you would is not helping the situation at all.

[ Parent ]
I'm not attacking the campaign... (0.00 / 0)
And I don't think the convention has been as bad as a lot of people seem to think here.  I DO think that the Republicans will be much more eviscerating than ours, though.  This is just based on what I saw in 2004.

I don't know what the answer is, and I agree that there is a tendency to focus a bit too much on the day to day polls, but they are what they are... and when we see trends going up and down we try to figure out why so we can fix them.  I'm pretty sure that after next week's evisceration, Obama's numbers will go down... they just will.  And that's why we need to prop them up as much as possible this week.  If we can manage a 10 point bounce that may be able to absorb whatever the bounce McCain gets next week.

So yes, it matters.

[ Parent ]
Maybe, maybe not... (0.00 / 0)
We are all just assuming that it will be 2004 redux, which makes sense, considering how the campaign has been running so far...

However, it may not be as nasty as we think... McCain's got the base sewn up... he needs independents, but his attacks aren't working on them... they are working on disaffected democrats...   but, that's not enough.... he has to try something different to restore his McCain 2000 brand...

2004 was a pure base GOTV election... they know that won't work this year... their base has shrunk too much...

I expect a lot of Hillary-type stuff... utilizing her attacks, but also focusing on the positive things that drew her voters to her...

I fear a woman VP from the McCain camp, although I don't know if there are any that would be pro-life enough other than Palin, who is too young, too hot, and not ready "on day one"...  I've talked to some Hilary people about it, and (other than the hardcore PUMA's who he has already, anyways) just having a woman on his ticket isn't enough... she has to be the "right kind of woman"  Carly Fiorina, for example, doesn't cut it...  Perhaps the McCain camp knows that...

We'll see... I imagine there are a lot of fights going on at McCain camp at the moment... McCain really, really, really wants Lieberman or Ridge and the goopers won't let him have them....

REID: Voting against us was never part of our arrangement!
SPECTER: I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!
REID: This deal keeps getting worse all the time!

[ Parent ]
Case in point here... (0.00 / 0)
http://seattletimes.nwsource.c...

So, the GOP pulled them... but I'd be willing to bet something like this gets passed around the RNC next week.

[ Parent ]
Tire pressure guages... (0.00 / 0)
Even though Obama schooled them on this one, they are still going to do it...

REID: Voting against us was never part of our arrangement!
SPECTER: I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!
REID: This deal keeps getting worse all the time!
[ Parent ]
To respond (0.00 / 0)
"1. Unlike some previous years, the conventions are back-to-back and this will obscure or cancel out any bounce in the Democrats direction"
The bounce is usually complete  by Friday morning.  I don't think the conventions going back to back will have much effect.
"2. Giving the length/coverage of the Dem primaries and the lateness in the year of the convention, Obama is more of a known quantity than, say, Kerry was in 2004. "
My review, and those of academics finds little to no difference in the bounce of challengers and incumbents.  No one is better known than an incumbent, and they get as big a bounce as challengers - which suggests how well you are known before the convention is irrelevent.

I completely agree with 3 to 5.

I am as nervous as hell right now - we got no bounce out of Biden which is really a first in recent political history.  In the end, though, I believe are bounce will be higher than the post '92 average in part because of Hillary and Bill.  My guess is a bounce of 7, which should put Obama up about 9.  I know that doesn't look very realistic right now, but I DO think he will see some movement.  

Sounds right (0.00 / 0)
7-pt. bounce looks realistic, damnit. It only wouldn't look realistic to people on Open Left, who have become trapped in some sort of Bizarro World where bounces don't exist before they even have a chance to not come to be! Or something like that.

It's strange days around here...

[ Parent ]
Most unique primary in history... (4.00 / 1)
Perhaps we underestimated the hold that Hillary had on a lot of these voters... While the official "PUMAs" don't seem to have much power and appeared to be limited in number (based on fundraising and numbers that showed up at meetings and gatherings), there is perhaps a large number out there who just really liked her and maybe just anticipated that she'd be the pick.  When it didn't happen, there was a backlash.

Or, maybe it's simply the fact that Biden is basically unknown and was announced on a Saturday and just the fact that he was unknown bothered people.

Or maybe we just ran into a really weird and bad patch of polling here.  I suppose it's possible.

[ Parent ]
I think the Pumas (4.00 / 1)
have been able to push their narrative.  Their ability to sustain after Bill and Hillary speak declines dramatically.

At least that is what I hope.

[ Parent ]
I don't think they have... (4.00 / 1)
I just think there is probably a set of people out there who just expected Hillary to be on the ticket.  When she was not and it was just an unknown, they reacted negatively.

So, it's not exactly the "PUMA" narrative.. Just the expectations of a fair number of people who apparently like Hillary that much.  Hopefully much of that will be put to rest.  In some ways, perhaps it would've been helpful for her to basically talk about how great Joe Biden was in her speech last night.. but maybe that's pushing it. =)

[ Parent ]
Agree Mostly (0.00 / 0)
With the caveat that I think we will see a small bounce from McCain also, giving us a +4 total bounce.  So I would just take your +7, subtract a +3 mccain bounce and we end up with obama up 5-6 about 2 weeks from now.

Or we could all be crazy (not impossible)

"Keep the Faith"

[ Parent ]
Biden (0.00 / 0)
I think the lack of a Biden Bounce is due to a visceral reaction of some of the hard core Clinton supporters.  They saw she wasn't the pick... got PISSED and responded emotionally which is why the tracking polls crashed starting Monday (the first day we'd see after the Saturday announcement and Sat and Sun polling.)

At this point, most have calmed down and after last night I'd bet a good number of the undecided Hillary people and the soft Hillary McSame supporters will switch back.   Yeah the Pumas will be Pumas... but F them... I doubt they were real Dems in the first place.   It feels like the Hardcore Hillary Supporter Democrats (notice I seperate them from the idiot Pumas) are heeding her speech.  And Obama now owes her a favor Don Corleone Style.

[ Parent ]
right (4.00 / 1)
but on point 1, any polling done after the convention will occur on Friday, the same day McCain will be getting big media coverage for his VP selection. There's only a very narrow window when people can be polled after Obama's speech and before the Republican VP announcement.
[ Parent ]
But remember (0.00 / 0)
we are always looking in the rear view mirror with polls.
On Thursday night we will get a couple of spot polls from the networks and by Friday and Saturday we will see the results of Thursday night.

So I would hope we up by at least 6 on Saturday - when I absolutely agree that the tide will begin to shift.  

[ Parent ]
Bounce? (4.00 / 1)
There are patterns, and there is playing a specific game. In this game, McCain has had to spend a bunch of money in August, because he didn't have it in March and it has to be spent before the primary is over. But he appears to be tied to spending limits of public financing once this is over. Secondly, McCain has not announced a VP pick. Who can he pick that some wing of his support doesn't hate? So, Barack has minimal bounce in the face of greater than usual negative attack, but may improve when McCain deflates with his convention and lack of post convention follow through. AS one more throwaway point, just how bad do the tradmedia hate Obama: will they pull out all the stops in trashing him for McCain's benefit?
Spending (0.00 / 0)
I think McCain gets $84 million and has almost exactly 2 months to spend it. That's $42 million per month. Obama will probably do better than that but then again, the RNC and outside groups may well outspend the DNC and outside groups. Summary: there will be plenty of money for attack ads against Obama. For me the upside is this: in 2008 he's already had millions thrown at him by Hillary Clinton, John McCain and outside groups and he's hanging in there pretty well.  
[ Parent ]
spending (0.00 / 0)
Shouldn't Obama have $50M already set aside for the general; and $50M per month for Aug, Sept and Oct should be a breeze. He could look to spend 2 to 1 on McCain's 84, even if all put to TV, and then spend 40 on ground game, that McCain fails to oppose. I don't oppose a bounce; I just feel less need for one, and expect this year will play out more as a McCain FAILURE, than a big democratic convention bounce.
[ Parent ]
6 points net (4.00 / 1)
Obama will be up 9 but lose three back to the GOP.  As of Monday it will be 6 points.
Obama's already doing pretty well (0.00 / 0)
But I think any bounce will come when and if all the serious problems with McCain's character are displayed to a national audience.

For a quick summary I've been saving a few videos at http://www.liberalwiki.com/pol...

Personally I'll probably try to do an email chain letter or something pretty soon.

But a few attacks showing McCain like that and his poll numbers could seriously drop if it hit the national stage I think.

The liberal wiki
Send an email to [email protected]

yes (4.00 / 1)
even a close relative of mine who is an Obama supporter already hadn't heard the joke McCain told years back about Chelsea Clinton. She was shocked by it. Despite that Hillary complimented McCain last night. I wish she had said "Let me tell you about a joke John McCain once told about my daughter...."
[ Parent ]
If Obama defines McCain, we'll get a huge bounce (0.00 / 0)
If he goes "positive", we'll get nothing.
How are you so sure of this? (0.00 / 0)


"Don't hate the media, become the media" -Jello Biafra
[ Parent ]
Five times as many viewers (0.00 / 0)
as 2004. Plus blog coverage. That seems like it should be worth something.

John McCain opposes the GI Bill.
five times? (0.00 / 0)
link it please.  
[ Parent ]
Nielson (4.00 / 1)
http://blog.nielsen.com/nielse...

Via Political Wire

http://politicalwire.com/archi...



"Don't hate the media, become the media" -Jello Biafra

[ Parent ]
awesome thanks (0.00 / 0)
I guess all the controversy/hype has it's benefits.  
[ Parent ]
Bounce (0.00 / 0)
I don't whether there will be a convention bounce or not, but I do know that I've got a helluva BOUNCE in my step.

It seems like a lifetime ago when in late 2006 the draft Obama petition was first making the rounds.  No one was giving this man a chance, and now look where we are.

http://www.draftobama.org/peti...

It's been a long journey from that time to what has transpired today.  Truly an historic milestone.  I'm beaming with pride for my party and for my country.  

Amazing!

"Measuring 'Bounce' Off An Uneven Surface" (0.00 / 0)
An interesting piece by "MYSTERY POLLSTER" Mark Blumenthal, which begins thus:

If this week's convention gives Barack Obama a "bounce," how will we know?

That question may seem silly, given the daily tracking polls and the quickie, one-day "flash" polls conducted to gauge reactions to Obama's selection of Joseph Biden. Never mind the challenges of obtaining a representative sampling of the electorate on a single
summer afternoon, pollsters will no doubt pump out all sorts of data this week.

The question of how pollsters will measure convention bounces this year is worth asking because having back-to-back Democratic and Republican gatherings will make it nearly impossible to take measurements of any Obama bounce that are comparable to those from past
presidential campaigns.

We have seen a number of historical analyses this week looking back at voter preferences immediately before and after conventions since the 1960s. (The best are from Gallup's Jeffrey Jones, ABC's Gary Langer and University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee political scientist Tom Holbrook.) However, all of these analyses are based on multiday polls conducted entirely before or entirely after each convention.

This year, the two conventions are in consecutive weeks, with a three-day holiday weekend in between. The most important and widely watched event of the Democratic National Convention, Obama's acceptance speech, will conclude late Thursday evening and is widely expected to
be followed the next morning, reportedly, by John McCain's announcement of his running mate. In that case, pollsters will have no way to conduct even a one-night poll to gauge the Democratic bounce before the McCain pick the next day, much less the kinds of multinight surveys that measured past convention bounces.

I think this is probably right, and certainly worth keeping in mind as we see what unfolds.  Of corse if Fladem is right, and Obama goes up 7 points, then a hearty "never mind" will be in order.


"You know what they say -- those of us who fail history... doomed to repeat it in summer school." -- Buffy The Vampire Slayer, Season 6, Episode 3

Previous Convention Bounce Stats from Sabato (0.00 / 0)

HOW THE CONVENTION BALL BOUNCES
Convention bounces in recent history

Larry J. Sabato
Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

Forget the Olympics. Political junkies are in the convention pre-season. As we approach the Democratic National Convention on August 25 to 28 and the Republican National Convention on September 1 to 4, analysts just want to know one thing: How big are the bounces?

The "bounce", of course, refers to the jump in the polls that a party experiences as a result of its week of media propaganda, broadcast free on all major news networks and in every news publication. Don't get us wrong. We favor giving each party its chance to tell a story about its nominee and its principles; this is invaluable civic education for voters who don't pay close attention normally.

Yet we shouldn't see the conventions as more than they are. Ever since the 1972 GOP Convention that re-nominated President Richard Nixon, when the conclave literally followed a minute-by-minute script that detailed how long delegates should applaud in each instance, the parties have striven to follow the pure public relations model. Nary a discouraging word is spoken, every picture for the cameras is perfect, and "boring" becomes a religion.

Thus, at the end of the week, with the nominee having delivered a much practiced and poll-tested acceptance address and been accompanied by balloons, confetti, and family aplenty on stage, the candidate ought reasonably to be at his polling peak. The extra points added by the convention comprise the bounce, and size matters. The parties compare their bounces, and inevitably someone has a case of bounce envy.

Post convention bounce stats for both parties from 1960-2004
at link:

http://www.centerforpolitics.o...

There will be a bounce but not like the +28 from 1992.

multiple bounces (0.00 / 0)
Brainball: The elders tell of a young ball much like you. He bounced three meters in the air, then he bounced 1.8 meters in the air, then, he bounced 4 meters in the air. Do I make myself clear?
Kissinger: Mister ambassador, our people tell the same story. Oy.


"I think the economic logic behind dumping a load of toxic waste in the lowest wage country is impeccable and we should face up to that."
-Lawrence Summers
After this increasingly fantastic convention, (0.00 / 0)
yes, there will be a bounce. It may get reduced somewhat by the Republican convention but three weeks from now we'll be looking at a changed race for the better.

And everyone can see this except the Seers of Open Left.

Will There be an Obama Convention Bounce? | 38 comments




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