Revised Obama Bounce Theory

by: tremayne

Fri Aug 29, 2008 at 00:25


Yesterday afternoon I cautioned against the idea there would be a large sustained bounce for the Obama-Biden campaign because the attention immediately shifts to the Republicans with their VP announcement and convention and because the audiences for these events have shrunk significantly over the last few decades.

I still think those reasons have merit and if, 10 days from now, you aren't seeing the Obama lead you expect, I think that will explain part of why. Nevertheless a few things have changed in the last 30 hours.

1. That was some speech by Obama tonight. We knew it would be good but that exceeded my expectations.

2. A reader alerted me yesterday to TV ratings which have been far higher that 2004. That year many stations chose not to air the convention on Tuesday night so only 5.9 million saw it. This year it was 26 million. Wednesday brought 24 million viewers, also a large increase over 2004.

3. Those increased viewers are significant just for the extra eyes and ears but they also heard from Hillary and Bill who strongly endorsed Obama and if even 1 or 2 percent of the electorate votes for Obama as a result (or even better switches from McCain) then the significance is magnified.

4. The big night is always Thursday and I expect 2008 will once again exceed 2004. Obama does have a lot very enthusiastic supporters and (hopefully) a significant number of undecided voters tuned in to help make a decision.

5. Hurricane Gustav. Oh the delicious irony. A hurricane bearing down on the gulf coast just as the Republican convention gets underway and on the 3-year anniversary of Katrina. I hope nobody gets hurt and New Orleans doesn't reflood but I hope it's a very near miss (and then fizzles). At any rate, if you thought the Republican mishandling of Katrina would go by unnoticed I think this makes that very unlikely. (Oh and memo to the Bush Administration: THERE'S A HURRICANE COMING! IT'S COMING AND YOU NOW HAVE ADVANCED WARNING! Get Dick Cheney to an undisclosed location immediately. Chickens.)

All of this adds up, in my mind, to the potential for a real bounce. Before I saw things going back to the 3-4 point national lead Obama had for most of the summer. Now I expect that may go higher. The question will be, can the campaign sustain it?

tremayne :: Revised Obama Bounce Theory

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Revised Obama Bounce Theory | 15 comments
The tightest of the post GE conventions certainly leaves it as a possible yes (4.00 / 1)
The pace is faster than 2004. It will be harder and harder for Mccain to shape a new narrative given some other factors you didn't mention- chief among them a) our ground game is better than mcains b) our money situation is better c) obama has apparently found his legs and d) he has stopped poo-poo'ing the 527s as a surrogate. Those four things mean we are able to potentially control the narrative. Just on the convention alone the GOP is having the reassess its own plans for their convention.  
10 points (0.00 / 0)
I saw 10 Gallup by Saturday - wednesday and 8 Rassmussen Sat - Wed.
Your hurricane warning cracked me up (4.00 / 1)
I think the bounce will be big based on the factors you mentioned, and will be sustained because... who the hell cares about the GOP Convention? Giuliani is gonna get up there and spit and stutter about 9/11. Lieberman is gonna scare half the GOP away. And George W Bush himself will be speaking - which will lead to unrelentless mocking by virtually every media establishment.

And the biggest story so far is that they can't fill the seats at their meager convention center.

The bounce will be big and sustained because the Republicans won't get a bounce. Unless McCain goes for the hat trick and picks an unorthodox VP. But since when has the GOP done anything that wasn't painfully orthodox?  

"Don't hate the media, become the media" -Jello Biafra

I think so too. (4.00 / 1)
To kill the Obama bounce McCain will have to drive up negative perceptions of Obama. That's all he's got except tired old war stories and tired old failed dogma. What numbers don't show is what an upbeat, confident convention this was. The whole thing was a masterful mix of showbiz and substance that the GOP just doesn't have the means to match. The convention was, in essence, a triumphant drama, a celebration of coming change. I don't see anything the GOP can do to not look gray, irrelevant, and boring in comparison. Bush will cast a stink over the room that four days cannot dispel and McCain can only try to ignore. Next to the Dem extravaganza, the Reps are going to look like a mafia funeral.
[ Parent ]
Well they do have a great big flag there (0.00 / 0)
and it will swallow up McCain like he's a white raisin.
[ Parent ]
Nah! (0.00 / 0)
Next to the Dem extravaganza, the Reps are going to look like a mafia funeral.

A Mafia funeral has far more somber dignity than the GOP can muster at this point.

Maybe a Punch-and-Judy rendition of a Mafia funeral. That they could pull off, with a little bit of luck, and the right set of color commentators.

"You know what they say -- those of us who fail history... doomed to repeat it in summer school." -- Buffy The Vampire Slayer, Season 6, Episode 3

[ Parent ]
I Expected A Strong Speech (4.00 / 4)
But I was surprised that it was so unabashedly populist.  And that's the main thing I've been saying that Obama's done wrong since clinching the nomination--reverting to his U of Chicago/Robert Rubin roots.  To pick up Clinton supporters, and deny McCain any chance in Ohio or Michigan, keeping on a strong populist course was what he needed to do back then--and didn't.   Now, all of sudden, he zigs all the way back again.

If I, as an advocate, was surprised to see him do this, I imagine that McCain and his team may well be in a state of shock--even without the dawning awareness that "hey, there's a hurricane coming!"

And even the media seems to have been thrown off, not least because Obama spoke right up to the hour mark, but that was merely icing on the cake.  The real problem was that they got to believing too much in their own silly narratives, and then Obama zigged back on them.

I still think the speech had its weaknesses.  But the more I look at reactions around the web, the more I think that the GOP and the Versailles media just got caught flat-footed and out of position, so they won't be able to pounce on those weaknesses.

And the prospect of the GOP considering postponing their convention because of the Hurricane Gustav, that's just pure poetic justice.

"You know what they say -- those of us who fail history... doomed to repeat it in summer school." -- Buffy The Vampire Slayer, Season 6, Episode 3

Didn't hear about them postponing the convention. (4.00 / 1)
They couldn't fly in an emergency cache of crocodile tears in time?
[ Parent ]
I Hear Someone Wrapped Up The Futures In Crocadile Tears (0.00 / 0)
So it wasn't so much a question of physical logistsics.  It was finding enough oil to pay for them on such short notice.

"You know what they say -- those of us who fail history... doomed to repeat it in summer school." -- Buffy The Vampire Slayer, Season 6, Episode 3
[ Parent ]
i agree, he caught a lot of people flat footed. nt. (0.00 / 0)

[ Parent ]
Fineman on MSNBC said the GOP is reeling.... (4.00 / 2)
...they have been caught flat footed, and may be altering their convention strategy.... it may no longer be "slime Obama" from start to finish, but a kinder, gentler convention...

We are seeing press releases from the GOP alluding to the very same fact... they are blaming hurricane Gustav for it, but the speech is a big factor... No Bush, kinder gentler convention, low key, personal convention...

This speech may have altered the GOP fall strategy, which will benefit us greatly....

REID: Voting against us was never part of our arrangement!
SPECTER: I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!
REID: This deal keeps getting worse all the time!

[ Parent ]
Hmmm. Huricanne Gustav? Or Hurricane Obama? (4.00 / 1)
Or maybe it was an earthquake?

Would you believe, a flood?  

A plague of locusts, perhaps?

Raining frogs?

"You know what they say -- those of us who fail history... doomed to repeat it in summer school." -- Buffy The Vampire Slayer, Season 6, Episode 3

[ Parent ]
There does appear to be renewed enthusiasm among the democratic base (0.00 / 0)
And I don' recall seeing that modern greek temple I'd been hearing so much about.  Then again I only watched Obama's speech.

That being said this speech makes me wonder if it was intentional to dampen enthusiasm in the past month or so.  My guess is no Obama was just taking it easier than normal because he had been running for 6 months or whatever and he just didn't care what his poll numbers were in August.


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By the way (0.00 / 0)
I remember Obama doing a very similar thing before South Carolina and his race speech.

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[ Parent ]
I've Always Thought (0.00 / 0)
I've always thought that Obama was going to get a huge bounce out of this for the following reasons:

1.) A lot of McCain's support is softer than a stick of butter left out in the sun.

2.) Obama's only real weakness is amongst whites who identify as Democrats, so they should be pursuadable.

3.) Obama is the greatest speaker of our time in the format of the convention speech. Best ever. What you saw last night was Jordan elevating over Craig Ehlo to hit the winning shot. You saw greatness.

And now, the reason the Republicans are scrambling is because they realize that anything they do now is going to look like small ball. They look miniature by comparison. Trying to counter 84,000 people at Mile High Stadium and the greatest speaker since JFK with Mitt Romney or Tim Pawletny in front of less than 12,000 at the Nutter Center is going to look pathetic by comparison, and they know it.

They're between a rock and a hard place. Postpone their convention to try and formulate a counter and avoid the hurricane and they risk Obama building such a big and sustained lead that they never catch up. Go through with their convention and they run an equally big chance of looking relatively small and the risk of having a split screen convention with images that will remind America of Katrina on one side of the screen while a bunch of rich, white, out-of-touch Republicans party like it's 1999 on the other side of the screen.

I almost feel sorry for them. I can't recall a time when a presidential campaign has been so screwed at this stage of the game.

Revised Obama Bounce Theory | 15 comments




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