Last week, Senator Majority Leader Harry Reid introduced a merged health care bill including an opt-out public option. The next day, Senator Joe Lieberman threatened to vote against cloture on any health care bill with a public option. The same day, Reid promptly brushed off the threat, saying that "Joe Lieberman is the least of Harry Reid's problems."
Now, sources claim the two Senators have reached a "private understanding" to let the bill go forward:
Sen. Joe Lieberman has reached a private understanding with Majority Leader Harry Reid that he will not block a final vote on healthcare reform, according to two sources briefed on the matter.
Um, OK I guess. There are good reasons to be wary, but I'll take it for now.
Anyone want to guess what the "private understanding" is?
Update: Now, both Reid and Lieberman are denying this to multiple sources. Of course they are. Either there is a private understanding, and saying so in public would make them sound ridiculous, or there is no private understanding, and saying there is would make them sound ridiculous.
In short, stating publicly that you have a private understanding sounds bad.
Progressives rejoiced when Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid announced this week that the final Senate health care bill would include a public option. The announcement was a major victory for left-wing Democrats.
Better yet, it would be a public option without a trigger. Earlier proposals called for a triggered public option which would only take effect if private insurers failed to bring down costs on their own. Under the opt-out compromise, the public option would come on line automatically (albeit not until 2013), but states would later have the option of quitting.
The jubilation was short-lived. Alex Koppelman of Salon explains:
Progressives didn't even get 24 hours to celebrate the victory they won in getting Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid to include a version of the public option in his health care reform bill. The celebration was cut off Tuesday afternoon with the news that Sen. Joe Lieberman, I-Conn., will vote with Senate Republicans to filibuster the legislation.
The Democrats have 60 Senate votes. If they all vote for cloture, a procedural motion to stop debate, the Republicans can't filibuster the bill. The Senators who vote for cloture can still vote against the bill. Reid's strategy for passing the bill was to get all Democrats to vote for cloture and let them vote their conscience on the actual bill. Even without Lieberman, Democrats have the votes to pass the bill by majority vote if they can avoid a filibuster.
Health care is the most important domestic policy initiative of the Obama administration. Would Joe Lieberman really torpedo reform? The Senate leadership thinks Reid is bluffing, according to Steve Benen at the Washington Monthly.
I understand the argument. Lieberman loves attention and power. By threatening to join the Republican filibuster, he gets both-Democrats have to scramble to make him happy, since there's no margin for error in putting together 60 votes. Lieberman gets to feel very important for the next several weeks by making this threat less than 24 hours after Harry Reid stated his intentions, but that doesn't necessarily mean he wants to be known forever as The Senator Who Killed Health Care Reform.
I find it very easy to believe, however, that Lieberman is capable of doing just that. He left himself some wiggle room, but not when it comes to the public option-he's against it, no matter what, even with all of the compromises thrown in.
In other words, if this is all a ploy for leverage, why would Lieberman open by swearing that he won't support a bill with a public option? You'd think he'd just say he was keeping his options open and force Reid to make him a counter-offer. Reid has already decided that the public option is politically non-negotiable. He's afraid that the base won't come out for the 2012 elections if they don't get what they want. Benen speculates that Lieberman wants to be the Senator Who Killed Health Care because he wants to drum up massive Republican support for his 2012 reelection bid. On this theory, Lieberman is joining Rep. Joe "You Lie!" Wilson (R-SC) and Balloon Dad in the quest to make bank on ridiculous publicity stunts.
Senator Olympia Snowe (R-Maine) says that she will side with the Republicans to filibuster the bill "if she has to," as Evan McMorris-Santoro reports for TPM. Snowe was the only Republican to vote for the Finance Committee's health care bill.
Reid must walk a fine line. The administration really can't afford to alienate organized labor before the 2012 elections. Newly elected AFL-CIO President Ricahrd Trumka continues to push for his three core demands for health care reform: a public option, a mechanism to make employers pay their fair share, and no taxes on health care benefits. Last week, AFSCME President Gerald McEntee said that his union would oppose legislation that taxed benefits, but Trumka hasn't gone that far, as David Moberg reports at Working In These Times.
Finally, in other health-related news, Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA), the division of the Labor Department that oversees workplace safety, has issued a sweeping new report condemning Nevada's state-level OSHA program. As I report for Working in These Times, the investigators found that NOSHA inspectors were being pressured by their superiors to write up employers on lesser charges, even when their repeat offenses killed workers.
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Before today, sources had told me that Lieberman was not considered to be one of the top threats to vote against cloture on a health care bill with a public option. Now, even despite Lieberman's threat to vote against cloture today, from the way Harry Reid is talking, it seems like the Senate leadership still doesn't consider Lieberman to be one of the main problems:
"Joe Lieberman is the least of Harry Reid's problems," Reid told reporters at his weekly press conference.
During a Q&A; session with reporters, Reid offered a fairly spirited defense of Lieberman, signaling perhaps that he doesn't believe Lieberman will ultimately be an obstacle--or at least that he doesn't want to tip his hat: "I don't have anyone that I've worked harder with, have more respect for, in the Senate than Joe Lieberman. As you know, he's my friend. There are a lot of senators--Democrat and Republicans--who don't like [parts of this bill]... Sen. Lieberman will let us get on the bill, and he'll be involved in the amendment process."(...)
"We'll get it on the floor, we'll have an amendment process, and that's what we do," Reid said. "We haven't been doing a lot of it because we've had 81 objections so far this year by the Republicans."
I can think of three possibilities here:
There is a deal with Reid and Lieberman to change the bill via amendments that is already in place.
Reid is disappointed, but believes he can get Lieberman to fall in line by the time of the final cloture vote.
Reid has been blindsided by Lieberman, but he is sticking to talking points that reflect the earlier estimate that Lieberman was not one of the main problems.
This is all very speculative, of course. One thing that is not speculative is that we are going to have to find a way to pressure Lieberman hard as a result of this statement. Any suggestions?
Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-Conn.) said Tuesday that he'd back a GOP filibuster of Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid's health care reform bill.(...)
Lieberman did say he's "strongly inclined" to vote to proceed to the debate, but that he'll ultimately vote to block a floor vote on the bill if it isn't changed first.
"I've told Sen. Reid that if the bill stays as it is now I will vote against cloture," he said.
"I can't see a way in which I could vote for cloture on any bill that contained a creation of a government-operated-run insurance company," Lieberman added. "It's just asking for trouble - in the end, the taxpayers are going to pay and probably all people will have health insurance are going to see their premiums go up because there's going to be cost shifting as there has been for Medicare and Medicaid."
One of the main criticisms progressives had of Lieberman leading up to the 2006 primary was that he often joined with Republicans on prominent issues (Clinton impeachment, Iraq war) in order to garner huge media attention for himself. Again, that pattern holds.
Lieberman works to undermine Democrats on major issues in order to increase his personal media profile. It is a good thing we did whatever it takes to keep someone like that in the Democratic caucus.
Update: I completely agree with the commenters who say that Reid should call this bluff. Let's see Lieberman actually casts a vote against sending this bill to conference committee, or against final passage afterward. And then, if he does, let's see what happens back in Connecticut.
Update 2: To clarify, it appears Lieberman is threatening to vote for cloture on the motion to proceed with the floor debate, but against the vote for cloture on final passage. TPMDC:
"I told Senator Reid that I'm strongly inclined--i haven't totally decided, but I'm strongly inclined--to vote to proceed to the health care debate, even though I don't support the bill that he's bringing together because it's important that we start the debate on health care reform because I want to vote for health care reform this year. But I also told him that if the bill remains what it is now, I will not be able to support a cloture motion before final passage. Therefore I will try to stop the passage of the bill."
Looks like Lieberman is making one final push to become President.
Update 3: Lieberman pledged support for universal health care back in 2006 debate:
Last week, Mike Stark asked Joe Lieberman if he'd side with Republicans to block a vote on health care reform.
Lieberman's response: "I haven't decided that yet."
Yesterday, Politico had yet another Lieberman response to the same question:
“Not vote for cloture? I wouldn’t rule that possibility out — not at all,” said Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-Conn.), who caucuses with the Democrats.
With the health care issue now moving into Harry Reid's court, the Progressive Change Campaign Committee will deliver this petition signed by over 85,000 people to Reid today:
"Any Democratic senators who support a Republican attempt to block a vote on health care reform should be stripped of their leadership titles. Americans deserve a clean up-or-down vote on health care."
You can still sign the petition, and have your name delivered to Reid. Just click here.
Via grannyhelen. After making national headlines for suggesting that health care reform "may have to wait" until after the recession, Senator Joe Lieberman is now facing some strong pushback from one of his Senate colleagues. Interestingly, the Senator leading the pushback against Lieberman was also Senator Joe Lieberman.
On Sunday, Senator Joe Lieberman said that health care reform "may have to wait" until after the recession. Emphasis mine:
Senator Joseph I. Lieberman of Connecticut on Sunday urged the Obama administration to consider postponing overhauling the health care system and instead work on smaller chunks of the issue until the economy improves.
"I'm afraid we've got to think about putting a lot of that off until the economy's out of recession," Mr. Lieberman said on CNN's "State of the Union." "There's no reason we have to do it all now, but we do have to get started. And I think the place to start is cost health delivery reform and insurance market reforms."
In response, Senator Joe Lieberman sent out an email to his supporters last night, rallying them to the cause of immediate health care reform. Here are some excerpts:
Americans today are faced with greater uncertainty than ever before when it comes to their health needs. These concerns often focus around rising medical costs, access to coverage, and quality of care. With more than 45 million uninsured Americans and health care spending levels that exceed any in the world, our current health care system is unsustainable and one where we reward quantity over quality. The need for health care reform has been evident for quite some time. We cannot afford to wait any longer to provide Americans with the high-quality, affordable health care they deserve, even though doing so will require making some difficult decisions.
As of this writing, there has been no response from Senator Lieberman's office to this rebuke from Senator Lieberman. However, other Democrats have not been so quiet. Many high ranking Democratic officials have criticized Senator Lieberman for rebuking Senator Lieberman. A senior White House advisor who spoke on the condition of anonymity told Open Left that "I don't understand why the left has decided to attack Joe Lieberman." Also, in a meeting with liberal groups, multiple sources have confirmed to me that White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel called the rebukes of Lieberman "f*cking stupid."
In the wake of the AIG bonus scandal, Connecticut Senate Chris Dodd is in serious trouble for re-election. In fact, the odds are now that he will lose, as a new Quinnipiac poll shows him trialing Republican challenger Rob Simmons by a whopping 16%:
This simply must be the result of the AIG scandal. Could anything else have possibly hurt Dodd so badly over the past twenty-five days? It is a painful irony that Dodd is the one taking the fall on this, given that he was the Senator trying to write stronger limits on executive compensation into the stimulus package, and it was other members who stripped it out. The Democrats who were in the room know what happened, and might be able to help Dodd if they fess up on who stripped the language.
Otherwise, not to be bleak or anything, it might not be possible for Dodd to recover from a deficit like this. It is true that a Research 2000 / Daily Kos poll taken just before this Quinnipiac poll showed Dodd ahead of Simmons by 5%, so one of those polls (or both) is very, very wrong. So, it is probably best to wait for a third confirming poll to develop a better sense of the campaign.
However, if the Q-poll is correct, than this is better than the advantage Bob Casey started out with against Rick Santorum in 2005, and akin to the advantage Tom Udall started with in New Mexico in 2007. Those campaigns ended up in 17.36% and 22.66% blowouts respectively, as the incumbent and incumbent party never recovered. I'd be hard pressed to find any incumbent Senator that has ever recovered from a 16% deficit. While the so-called "incumbent rule," where challengers gain the overwhelming percentage of undecideds in campaigns with incumbents, does not hold up as well as it used to, it is still safe to say that trailing by 16% with a name ID over 90% is a bad position. What is worse for Dodd in the poll is that he is also losing by 4% to a lesser known Republican State Senator, meaning that much of his deficit is specific to Simmons, who many Connecticut voters seems to consider an acceptable Republican, rather than just to an anti-Dodd sentiment. As such, retaining this seat will probably require either Dodd not seeking re-election, or Simmons being defeated in a Club for Growth fueled primary.
If Dodd were to step aside, it is a lock that Attorney General Richard Blumenthal would be able to retain the seat for Democrats. A February Q-poll recent poll showed Blumenthal defeating Lieberman by 28% in the general election, and with a 79%-12% approval rating. While it would be unfortunate to lose such a rock-solid chance to defeat Lieberman, recent polling from Research 2000 has shown that Ned Lamont is still primed to defeat Lieberman in 2012 if he decides to run again. Of course, while Lamont and Blumenthal remain solid bench candidates for Democrats in the state, Republicans have their own in Governor Jodi Rell. The same poll showing Dodd down 16% shows Rell with a 72% approval rating. All of this guarantees that Connecticut will be a big state, possibly the top state, to watch on the Senate front for the next four years.
How did Senators John McCain and and Joe Lieberman spend the sixth anniversary of the Iraq war? Did they apologize for cheerleading the Bush administration's pernicious lies that led our country into and have kept us mired in Iraq? Did they show remorse for a war that took the lives of over 4,000 US soldiers and up to 1 million Iraqi civilians, while costing us $3 trillion when all is said and done? No, instead these Senators brought us the sequel to their twisted buddy comedy, escalating the war in Afghanistan.
In a Washington Post Op-Ed yesterday, McCain and Lieberman urged the Obama administration to go all in after completing its policy review of Afghanistan and Pakistan. The "minimalist" or "reductionist" path would be, in their view, "dangerously and fundamentally wrong, and the president should unambiguously reject it." As with the Iraq war, McCain and Lieberman believe it's in our national interest to win in Afghanistan at all cost, which they even define as establishing "a stable, secure, self-governing Afghanistan that is not a terrorist sanctuary."
How do McCain and his ideological Benedict Arnold of a sidekick propose achieving such a lofty goal? Well, that part they don't get into. No need to be bogged down with the specifics; suffice it to say our country needs a broad counterinsurgency and we need it now! The maximalist approach, which is ironic, considering McCain and Lieberman criticize and fear-monger about those who use "loose rhetoric about a minimal commitment in Afghanistan." The thing is though, and I never ever thought I'd write these words, McCain and Lieberman are absolutely right.
In the grown up world, honorable and reasonable people may initially disagree but eventually compromise upon a collective review of empirical evidence. It was in this spirit, that the nascent Obama administration reached out to Republicans with respect to their proposed American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009, which finally passed both houses of congress yesterday.
A new Quinnipiac poll shows Lieberman's approval rating in Connecticut is down to just 38%. This is actually record-breaking for the Quinnipiac poll:
"Sen. Joseph Lieberman appears to be paying a high price for his embrace of Sen. John McCain in the presidential race. This is the highest disapproval rating in any Quinnipiac University poll in any state for a sitting U.S. Senator - except for New Jersey's Robert Torricelli, just before he resigned in 2002. Among those who say they voted for Sen. Lieberman in 2006, 30 percent now say they would vote for someone else if they could.
Only 21% of Democrats approve of Lieberman's performance as Senator. Also, 40% of Independents, and 68% of Republicans approve of Lieberman's performance as Senator. It is kind of funny, but also not surprising, that Lieberman's constituents are far more aware of his partisan inclinations than his fellow Senators, or even President-elect Obama.
Lieberman isn't up for re-election until 2012. Given that, since 2006, he has been granted a committee chair, I won't be surprised if he is able to make a recovery. Obama validating Lieberman will, I'm sure, run through just about every campaign commercial Lieberman makes for the Democratic primary, too. Expect at least 42 Democratic Senators to endorse him, and campaign for him, in the 2012 Democratic primary, too. Further, don't expect many, if any, challengers to come from elected Democratic officials in Connecticut, for fear of reprisals should they challenge Lieberman. So, while Lieberman has a low approval rating, he is by no means particularly vulnerable right now.
Also, from the poll, it would appear that the northeast is more progressive than the West Coast:
Connecticut voters oppose 61 - 33 percent amending the state constitution to ban same-sex marriage. Republicans support such an amendment 49 - 46 percent, while Democrats oppose it 73 - 23 percent and independent voters oppose it 58 - 34 percent. Men oppose an amendment to ban same-sex marriage 56 - 38 percent while women oppose it 66 - 28 percent.
I always thought the northeast wasn't given sufficient recognition as the most left-leaning region of the country, which I think it fairly obviously is.
At the center of the Rod Blagojevich scandal is an allegation that he was putting a U.S. Senate seat up for sale. Here are some of the key quotes:
Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich told aides he had something "f-ing golden" - sole power to pick Barack Obama's Senate successor - to trade for a White House post or lucrative outside job for himself, and he sought to sell the seat to the highest bidder, federal prosecutors allege in a sweeping complaint against the Democratic governor.
The Senate seat "is a f--ing valuable thing, you just don't give it away for nothing," Blagojevich said, according to the complaint. He even threatened to name himself "unless I get something real good."
This is pretty bad, and Blagojevich needs to step down and face trial. Still, it needs to be remembered that the only reason Blagojevich seems to be in trouble is because he was selling the seat for money. If he was selling the seat for votes, personal power, or a committee chairmanship, he would probably have been fine. After all, over the past month, there are at least two high-profile instances of conservative Democrats selling their membership in the party for committee chairmanships. First, Lieberman managed to acquire a Senate chairmanship by threatening to vote with another party (emphasis mine, more in the extended entry):
They say change is on the horizon. One thing that won't be changing is congressional subservience to the executive branch. There's good and bad in that. If you believe, as I do, that Barack Obama is far more capable than his predecessor then congressional subservience will allow him to undo much of the bad legislation the previous Congress rolled over and allowed into law.
The bad news is our system has been reduced to two branches (or even 1.5). Bush got what he wanted, even after barely surviving reelection in 2004. Much of what he wanted also passed after Democrats took control of Congress in 2006. Now Obama tells Senate Democrats what to do concerning an important committee and they comply. Again, if you have unlimited faith in Obama this will not concern you. I certainly hope that Obama's strategy is successful and I also hope he is, unlike his predecessor, a benevolent dictator. Still, it would be nice if congressional Democrats showed a spine some day.
I read with some interest the mean things that Markos said about Ralph Nader, arguably the greatest journalist who has ever lived. I voted for Barack Obama but with eyes wide open. I think he'll be better and more sensible than the Republicans in power. But we really need to take a deeper look at our loyalty to the democratic party and the democratic party only if we're really serious about things like the rule of law applying to everyone or even getting out of wars that would be more honestly defined as crimes. In short: if you really want to put the fear of god into Democrats, then you need to start supporting third party candidates. This crazy idea that we just keep giving them more money no matter how horribly they treat us simply isn't beginning to fly anymore.
I'm pretty disappointed at the outcome over the Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs leadership fight. Denying Lieberman the chair would have been a sign that the Senate Democratic caucus was willing to stand up for itself over the next two years, but instead we were given another sign that the legislative branch no longer matters that much in the United States.
However, given the focus on how this vote means that "the left has been foiled again," I want to push back against the idea that the last two weeks has not somehow been a string of defeats for progressives. There have been setbacks, such as today's Lieberman vote, but there have also been real victories. In the extended entry, I accentuate the positive.
Better Democrat and Senator-elect Jeff Merkley spoke out against Lieberman keeping his gavel. I'll have a statement from his office shortly. Hopefully we can get the 13 Senators who voted no on Lieberman to come out publicly so we can praise them. So far, we know that Sanders, Leahy, and Merkley were against Lieberman keeping his gavel.
Meanwhile, Howard Dean recites Obama's talking points about Lieberman, saying that revenge isn't warranted against Lieberman, that this is what Obama wanted, and that it's pragmatic and smart. It is worth noting that Congress is very much looking to Obama for leadership on nearly every issue, so that there were as many as 13 is surprising. It's also suggestive that there's a real nucleus of independent progressive energy in the Senate, since their votes were directly against the wishes of the incoming President.
And there we go. Lieberman loses his subcommittee chairmanship on climate change on the Environment and Public Works Committee. That subcommittee chairmanship was going to become mostly irrelevant anyway as climate policy moved to committees with real jurisdiction. So basically 42 Democratic Senators voted for Joe Lieberman, and Lieberman is saying that he kept his slot because of Obama.
I sort of get tired of making this point, but Democratic leaders are often not on our side, they often don't agree with us, and it's foolish to consider them as teammates. They aren't.
Asked what it would mean if Lieberman kept his chairmanship, one Senate Democratic aide said bluntly: "The left has been foiled again. They can rant and rage but they still do not put the fear into folks to actually change their votes. Their influence would be in question."
I don't think that's quite right, as a lot of this is simply persuasion and not brute force. Democratic Senators have not been persuaded to change the way they think about politics, even people like Russ Feingold and Barbara Boxer, who constantly act like wankers while voting reasonably well. But yes, there is an element of telling us to fuck off, and you should get the message. And that message is from everyone who made this possible.
If today's Democratic Senate caucus vote turns out as expected, then the media narrative will credit President-elect Barack Obama for allowing Lieberman to retain the Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs committee chair. In fact, such credit has already been given.
Reuters:
Bowing to the wishes of U.S. President-elect Barack Obama, Senate Democrats seem ready to do what it takes to keep Sen. Joe Lieberman in their ranks despite his support for Republican John McCain in the 2008 White House race, party sources said on Monday.
Several lawmakers involved in the discussions over Lieberman's fate credited President-elect Barack Obama's desire to keep Lieberman in the Democratic caucus and let bygones be bygones as being a key reason Democratic leaders have agreed to support allowing Lieberman to keep his committee chair.
MSNBC:
Obama tipped the scales in Lieberman's favor, one source said. The source essentially explained it like this: If the wrath was directed at Obama and got over it, shouldn't the Democratic caucus do the same?
One senior Democratic Senate aide said that before Obama made his feelings known, more senators than not thought Lieberman should "pay the price." But, the aide expects "the caucus to follow [Obama's] lead."
Everyone is crediting Obama with allowing Lieberman to keep his full committee chair. No one is contradicting these reports. As such, there isn't really any reason not to place this decision at Obama's feet.
Obama didn't stay out of this, or decide he had bigger fish to fry. This is how he wanted the fish fried, and so this is what happened.
A Senate aide reports to the Sleuth: "I was in my car on Constitution Avenue in front of the National Gallery waiting for the light to change when I noticed that lo and behold who but Joe Lieberman himself was in the car sitting next to me. He was being driven by a young male staffer and was furiously scrolling through his blackberry. When the light turned green, they pulled ahead of me and I saw a McCain 2008 sticker on the rear bumper, half scratched off!"
Was Lieberman incompetently and cowardly trying to destroy the evidence of his support for McCain? Well, his aides claim that the half-removal was caused instead by an anonymous bumper scraper:
But a source knowledgeable about the fate of Lieberman's bumper sticker assures us Senator Lieberman had nothing to do with its removal. In fact, no one (person) scratched it off the car, he insists.
The McCain bumper sticker, according to the Lieberman source, was "merely scraped by another car" that accidently backed into Lieberman's vehicle.
So, Lieberman's McCain bumper sticker was only half-removed by someone who will forever remain anonymous. Sound like anything else that is about to happen today?
I hope that my earlier optimism is correct, but at this point too many sources seem to be reporting that Lieberman will lose his sub-committee chairmanship instead of his full chairmanship. The goal of our campaign was for him to lose his full committee chairmanship, but keep a subcommittee of some sort. I should have expected this, since we are dealing with the Senate Democratic caucus. Threats of joining with Republicans have once again led to a compromise that overwhelmingly favors conservatives.
Don't expect a fighting Democratic Senate over the next two years. If a group of conservative Democrats threatens to support a Republican filibuster unless their demands are met, then those demands will probably be met. Of course, I will be more than happy to be wrong. Hopefully, that will start at 9:30 a.m. (eastern) today, when the Democratic caucus meets to vote behind closed doors.
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