Projected 2010 Senate: Democrats 54-46 (assuming no caucus switches)
Even though it is only January, developments in the 2010 Senate picture keep coming in every day. So, it is time for another major update to the Senate picture.
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Today’s forecast shows the Democratic situation has improved in a number of states: Missouri, Colorado, Nevada, and North Carolina. Much of this was due to new statewide polling from Polimetrix. While those all of those states except Missouri still show significant leans, they have moved back into more competitive territory.
While still grim, the situation is far from hopeless for Democrats. A national swing of 3%–which is very doable given the dominance of Rasmussen in the polls here and if the employment situation improves–would add another 2 seats to their total. Keeping a majority of 56 seats would actually be pretty respectable, given that Republicans haven’t had a majority like that since the 1928 elections.
Senate forecast overview
Democrats*
Republicans
Not up for election
41
23
Currently safe
9
12
Sub-total
50
35
Current polling
3.68
11.32
Projected total
54
46
* = Because they caucus with Senate Democrats, Independents Bernie Sanders and Joe Lieberman are considered Democrats
The 15 currently competitive Senate campaigns (“Competitive” is defined as campaigns where incumbent party currently leads by 18% or less in current polling among announced candidates) Democrats: 3.68 (4)
Republicans: 11.32 (11)
The continuing Democratic decline in the Senate forecast led me to start wondering: could Republicans actually retake the Senate in 2010?
While it remains a real longshot, Republicans are only one or two more top recruits from actually putting the Senate in play.
Here are the current Senate matchups that polling shows to be within 18% or closer. For the sake of clarity, only the leaders of the most recent primary poll is included:
That is a pretty bad environment for Democrats. However, even if Republicans win every single one of these campaigns–which right now is not very likely at all–they would still only have 50 seats in the Senate. Since Joe Biden would still be Vice-President, Democrats would retain control even in that nightmare scenario.
So, in order to retake the Senate, Republicans are going to have to put more seats into play. Here are their best options:
* = Poll from February 2009. Political environment has significantly worsened for Democrats since that time.
Before any of the 19 campaigns listed here are decided, Democrats have a 47-34 edge in the Senate. Since Democrats hold the tiebreaker, in order to retake the Senate, Republicans need to win 17 of these campaigns. This means they need at least one of the three recruits in the “potential” section before they even have a shot. And, even then, they would need to shoot the moon.
While it is an extreme longshot that Republicans retake the Senate, that it is even possible at all is quite remarkable. It is a testament to just how negative the political situation has become for Democrats.
Jan 25 Senate update: Democratic loss of 6.01 seats (six)
Change from Jan 21: Democrats down 1.21 seats
Project 2010 Senate: Democrats 53-47 (assuming no caucus switches)
In what is becoming almost a daily routine, today brings even more bad news for Democrats in the 2010 Senate outlook.
In Delaware, Beau Biden has declared he is not running. This means Delaware from a 38% chance for a Democratic victory to, pending the announcement of another Democratic candidate, a 0% chance of victory.
In Indiana, Evan Bayh might actually be in real trouble. A new Rasmussen poll shows Bayh losing to Representative Mike Pence, 47%-44%. The NRSC has been trying to recruit Pence into the campaign, and he would also be a favorite of the teabaggers. This would give Pence a nice combination of grassroots and establishment support, plus a strong poll standing to start with. So, throw another potential Republican pickup opportunity onto the pile:
These two shifts push Democratic chances down further, to a loss of 6.01 seats (from 4.80 seats). This makes a 53-47 Democratic majority currently the most likely outcome based on polling, primary outcomes, and recruiting.
This is turning into a bloodbath. The Senate Forecast methodology can be found here.
Jan 21 Senate update: Democratic loss of 4.80 seats (five)
Change from Jan 20: Democrats down 0.49 seats
Project 2010 Senate: Democrats 54-46 (assuming no caucus switches)
Adding to the sense of impending collapse, Democrats hit a new low in today’s Senate forecast update. For the first time, I am now projecting Democrats to retain only 54 seats in the Senate–and that includes independents Joe Lieberman and Bernie Sanders. New polling from California (Field), Missouri (Rasmussen), North Carolina (PPP) and Pennsylvania (Rasmussen) were the contributing factors to this downgrade.
It is worth noting that North Carolina is one of only two Senate campaigns in the country right now (Illinois is the other) where the likely Democratic nominee, Elaine Marshall, is trending up:
This also happens to be only one of two campaigns (Louisiana is the other) where Democrats are seriously looking to knock off a Republican incumbent. I will have to look into this more, but I wonder if competitive seats featuring a Republican incumbent will be easier for Democrats to win than competitive open seats. This thought makes me cautiously optimistic about North Carolina.
The situation continues to deteriorate for Democrats. Even after Massachusetts, Republicans have six pickup opportunities better than the top Democratic pickup chance (Missouri). They have a 7th opportunity, Illinois, equal to Missouri.
So, now that the country and the Democratic Party face major crises, what’s the Democratic response? Claim they can’t do anything! (emphasis mine)
Dem Talking Points On Brown Victory
MASSACHUSETTS ELECTION MEANS THAT SENATE REPUBLICANS HAVE MORE RESPONSIBILITY TO GOVERN, NOT OBSTRUCT
· We welcome Scott Brown to the Senate.
· While Senator-elect Brown’s victory changes the political math in the Senate, it does not change the challenges are country faces or the need to address them.
· We remain committed to strengthening our economy, creating good paying jobs and ensuring all Americans can access affordable health care.
· Senate Republicans have an obligation to the American people to join us in governing our nation through these difficult times and to help clean up the mess they left behind.
· It is mathematically impossible for Democrats to pass legislation on our own. Senate Republicans to come to the table with ideas for improving our nation and not obstructionist tactics.
Massachusetts–Coakley up by 8%: A new poll on the Massachusetts Senate campaign shows Martha Coakley up by 8% over Scott Brown, 49%–41%. This is precisely in line with the overall polling average, which now gives Coakley a lead of 8.2%, down / up from 8.2% yesterday. Coakley’s win % remains at 91%.
Just in case there was any doubt, a Coakley loss means that health care reform is over. Expect some Blue Dogs to balk at any bill if Scott Brown wins, and expect some Progressives to balk at voting for the Baucus version of the bill if Brown wins.
Connecticut–Blumenthal dominant, Lieberman despised: Quinnipiac is the latest polling firm to find Richard Blumnthal way, way ahead for Senate in Connecticut. He leads the Demcoratic primary 85%-4%, and the general election by 35% over Rob Simmons and 41% over Linda McMahon. This campaign ended the day that Dodd retired, and Blumenthal entered. I only follow general elections within 18.50%, so unless something changes dramatically, this will not appear on my Senate forecast updates.
Also of note–Quinnipiac provides further evidence that Joe Lieberman suffered real damage from his actions on the health care bill:
Connecticut voters disapprove 54 – 39 percent of the job Sen. Joseph Lieberman is doing, one point off his worst grade ever and a steep drop from a 49 – 44 percent approval November 12. Republicans approve 61 – 35 percent while Democrats disapprove 67 – 27 percent and independent voters disapprove 57 – 36 percent.
It is small comfort, but Joe Lieberman’s health care backstab made him very unpopular in Connecticut. This is probably his last term in the Sneate.
Nevada–polling alternatives to Reid: A new PPP poll looks at alternatives to Harry Reid in the Nevada Senate race. The results are not good for Democrats:
PPP tested Las Vegas Mayor Oscar Goodman, Congresswoman Shelley Berkley, and Secretary of State Ross Miller as possible alternatives to Reid.
Goodman comes out the best, leading Lowden 42-40 and tied with Tarkanian at 41. 43% of voters in the state have a favorable opinion of him to 21% unfavorable, and he’s viewed positively by Democrats, Republicans, and independents.
Berkley and Miller both post numbers pretty similar to Reid. Berkley trails Lowden and Tarkanian by identical eight point margins and Miller has a 10 point deficit against Tarkanian and an 11 point one against Lowden.
The problem for Democrats is that Oscar Goodman is already mulling a run for Governor–and as an independent, not as a Democrat. As such, it is highly unlikely that Democrats would ever clear the field for him. and he is, um, colorful. He really is more Governor material than Senate material.
Ignoring the numerous horserace machups in the PPP poll for a moment, here are the favorable ratings of the candidates they polled:
Oscar Goodman (I): Favorable 43%–21% Unfavorable
Danny Tarkanian (R): Favorable 33%–24% Unfavorable
Sue Lowden (R): Favorable 29%–22% Unfavorable
Ross Miller (D): Favorable 18%–16% Unfavorable
Shelley Berkley (D): Favorable 27%–27% Unfavorable
Harry Reid’s favorables were not tested, but he does have an approval rating of 36%–58%. This likely makes Shelley Berkley a better bet. Even if she doesn’t poll better right now, she has more potential.
Ohio–Brunner closes gap on Fisher: Rasmussen has new numbers on the Ohio Senate race. Like their December numbers, they show Republican frontrunner Rob Portman ahead of both major Democrats. In a reverse of their December numbers, Jennifer Brunner (down 3%) does better than Lee Fisher (down 7%). In December, Brunner trailed by 7%, and Fisher trailed by 2%.
Here are updated victory odds for the Ohio Senate race, looking only at Brunner vs. Portman and Fisher vs. Portman:
The DSCC has threatened to back Fisher over Brunner’s lack of funding and her standing in the polls, but this poll might cause them to step back a bit.
In Ohio, the filing deadline for the Democratic primary is February 18th, and the primary is on May 4th. In Nevada, the filing deadline is on March 12th, and the primary is on June 8th. See all filing deadlines and primary dates here.
The big change in this forecast is the inclusion of win percentages for each campaign. The win percentage is based on if the election were held today. The specific percentage is based on my research into the 138 closest statewide campaigns from 2004-2009. It projects the likelihood of a Democratic victory given the current polling average.
In campaigns where the general election matchup has not been decided, the win percentage used in the overall forecast features the two candidates I believe will win their respective primaries. That number can be seen in boldface in the win % column. The number is usually based on polling, but is not entirely based on polling. For example, I believe that Rubio will be the Republican nominee in Florida, even though polling says otherwise right now.
Overall, the inclusion of win percentages has very slightly improved the Democratic position in the forecast. Two weeks ago, I projected Democrats would have 55 Senators in 2011-2012. Today, I project 56.
The net effect of Byron Dorgan’s and Chris Dodd’s retirements on the Senate picture is that Democrats will now lose North Dakota instead of Connecticut.
Losing North Dakota In North Dakota, Senator Byron Dorgan’s retirement is a real blow. North Dakota is a pretty red state (Cook PVI R+10), the national environment is pretty favorable to Republicans right now, and Republican Governor Jim Hoeven–who is likely to run–is a very popular figure.
This is made worse given that Byron Dorgan is about the most progressive figure we could have hoped for in North Dakota. While Ed Schultz is a clear exception, even he probably can’t beat Hoeven this year. Schultz is unlikely to run, anyway.
All of this makes it extremely difficult–almost impossible, really–to hold the seat this year. A right-winger is now very likely to replace a pretty good Senator in Byron Dorgan.
Gaining Connecticut Chris Dodd was all but toast in Connecticut. He trailed well known Republican Bob Simmons by 10%, and also trailed little-known Linda McMahon. It is not impossible that Dodd could have held the seat, especially if, as was seemingly likely, Linda McMahon won the primary. However, his retirement improves Democratic odds to hold the seat dramatically.
Attorney General Richard Blumenthal is now the likely Democratic nominee in Connecticut. Blumenthal will announce that he is running at 2:30 p.m., a couple hours after Dodd officially announces his retirement. In the mid-November Quinnipiac poll of Connecticut, Blumenthal sported a gaudy 78%-13% approval disapproval rating. Public Policy Polling, which just completed a Connecticut poll that included numbers on Blumenthal versus Simmons and McMahon, writes “Democrats will keep the Senate seat in Connecticut now.”
In the same way that defeating Hoeven is virtually impossible in North Dakota, defeating Blumenthal is virtually impossible in Connecticut.
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For the Senate, the net result is that Democrats will now lose North Dakota instead of Connecticut. It is not a disastrous trade, though not a great one, either. A loss in Connecticut would have been easier to reverse in 2016 than a loss in North Dakota. Further, as I already mentioned, Byron Dorgan is pretty progressive for a red state like North Dakota. Short of Ed Schultz becoming a Senator, it will be difficult to get a progressive in that seat anytime soon.
Perhaps worst of all, Blumenthal was a lock to defeat Joe Lieberman in 2012. Back in Februrary, Blumethal led Holy Joe 58%-30% in a hypothetical 2012 matchup. Now, Democrats are going to have to find someone else to dump Lieberman in 2012. Whoever else they find will simply not have as good a chance as Blumenthal.
On net, the Senate forecast remains the same. Democrats are expected to lose five seats in November, resulting in a 55-45 Senate. The Governor’s races will be looked at in another post.
Blumenthal leads Rob Simmons 59-28, Linda McMahon 60-28, and Peter Schiff 63-23. It would take an epic collapse for him not to be Connecticut’s next Senator.
Barring something truly shocking, Richard Blumenthal will be the next Senator from Connecticut. Now, we just need someone to dump Lieberman in 2012.
Update–Schultz asked to run, but isn’t eligible: Ed Schultz has been officially asked to run for Senate in North Dakota. However, he is not eligible for the seat, since he moved two years ago:
As Schultz pointed out on his show last night, North Dakota requires that candidates maintain residency in the state for five years prior to running for the Senate, and he has lived in Minnesota for the past two years — meaning he is not eligible for the position.
So, this really does appear to be a Connecticut for North Dakota swap.
Update 3–Schultz is eligible: It appears that states cannot actually set requirements about who runs for US Senate–only the Constitution can. This means that Schultz is eligible to run for Senate.
On the off-chance that Hoeven does not run, and Schultz does, it would be pretty awesome for Dems and Progs alike.
Rankings changes:
–Florida moves from “Toss up” to “Solid Republican”
–Kentucky moves from “Toss-up” to “slight lean Republican”
–Missouri moves from “Toss-up” to “slight lean Democrat”
–Ohio moves from “Toss-up” to “slight lean Republican”
–Pennsylvania moves from “Toss-up” to “slight lean Republican”
States with polling changes: Arkansas, California, Connecticut, Florida, Kentucky, Missouri, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin
Commentary: The improvement in the Republican position comes from refinements to the “toss-up” category. Rather than all “toss-ups” being given 50-50 chances of going to one party or another, they have been weighted in favor of the part with the slight advantage. Republicans are now projected to win five of the seven campaigns that were formerly listed as true “toss-ups.” This improves their overall standing to a net gain of five seats. I believe this more accurately reflects the current political situation.
Specific percentages for each overall partisan result (a 28% chance for 58 Democratic seats, a 30% chance for 57 Democratic seats, a 25% chance for 56 Semocratic seats, etc) will become available in mid-2010, once more polling is available for each campaign, and once most primary campaigns are decided. The forecast will always use the plurality percentage as the topline result.
Republican-Held Seats Democratic Pickups: 1 (One of Kentucky, Missouri or Ohio)
Rankings changes: Illinois moves from Lean Republican to Toss-up; Florida moves from Solid Republican to Toss-up.
States with new polls: Arkansas, Delaware, Illinois, Colorado, Connecticut, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania
Commentary: The overall picture actually slightly improves for Democrats. While the negative polling picture in Colorado, Connecticut and Nevada has worsened, those seats were already considered Republican pickups in the forecast. Improvement in Illinois, along with Rubio gaining in the Republican primary in Florida, results in the forecast shifting from a 4-seat loss to a 3-seat loss.
The best way for Democrats to keep improving is to focus on jobs. This is probably why, in a speech before a bunch of CEOs, Rahm Emanuel has declared reducing the deficit is the top economic priority for next year:
Deficit reduction over the long term will be the White House’s primary focus next year, and Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel said at the Wall Street Journal’s CEO Council conference last month it will be a “key component” of the president’s State of the Union address.
“It is foremost on his mind and the mind of the economic team,” Emanuel said.
Good idea. The budget deficit is also the top priority of, like, 2% of the nation:
“What do you think is the most important problem facing this country today?” Open-ended
Economy/Jobs: 47
Health care: 12
War/Peace (general): 4
Poverty/Homelessness: 3
Moral values/Family values: 3
War in Afghanistan: 2
War in Iraq: 2
Budget deficit: 2
Other: 20
Unsure: 5
This poll makes a mockery of the notion that the country is mainly concerned about the deficit right now. When people are not promoted with any choices, only 2% of the country independently lists the deficit as a top priority.
Complete forecast, with all the usual colorful charts, can be found in the extended entry.
Rankings change: As Rubio gains in the Republican primary and as Meek gains on Rubio in the general election, Florida moves ahead of North Carolina and Louisiana.
Commentary: It is worth noting that while the Senate forecast has been stuck on a Republican net gain of four for the entire month of November, it seems more likely that the situation will get worse for Democrats, rather than better. The are two main reasons for this.
First, Democratic-held seats in New York and Wisconsin are currently uncompetitive, but would become lean-Republican if the GOP scored top recruits. This is because Russ Feingold slightly trails Tommy Thompson in Wisconsin, and Kirsten Gillibrand signifcantly trails Rudy Giuliani.
Second, as the economy continues to tank, there could be an across the board shift toward Republicans in these seats.
The combination of these two factors makes a ten-seat Republican pickup possible. If Republicans sweep of the races on the Senate chart, plus New York and Wisconsin, the Senate will be 50-50 for 2011-2012. And that is assuming no of the Conservadems switches parties (cough, Lieberman, cough), thereby throwing Senate control to Republicans outright.
Bad times for Democrats electorally. The entire forecast can be found in the extended entry.
Since the last update on November 4th, a few new polls have resulted in some minor alterations to the overall Senate forecast:
California has tightened up a bit, but that is because of polls that fell out of the average, not because of any new polling showing Republican improvement.
Connecticut remains at “solid Republican,” but the rise of Linda McMahon in the Republican primary almost moves it to “lean Republican” or even “toss-up.” A second poll will be needed for confirmation before a change is made, however.
Delaware moves from “lean Republican” to “toss-up”
Illinois moves from “toss-up” to “lean Republican
Ohio has slipped a bit closer to Republicans.
North Carolina has new polling, but remains in the same position as the last forecast.
All of these changes actually make no change in the overall forecast. Now, as with two weeks ago, the most likley outcome if the election were held tomorrow is a Republican net gain of four seats.
However, the election is not held tomorrow. It will be held in 50 weeks, making this prediction by Nouriel Roubini all the more worrying:
Based on my best judgment, it is most likely that the unemployment rate will peak close to 11% and will remain at a very high level for two years or more.
If that is the case, Democrats will be lucky to only lose four seats.
With Mike Castle set to run for Senate in Delaware, Republicans have rounded out an excellent season of candidate recruiting for them. Their current strength in not only Delaware, but also Colorado, Connecticut, Florida, Illinois and New Hampshire is the result of top-tier recruiting efforts. By contrast, Democrats have seen their chances in a number of campaigns–Arizona (Napolitano), Kansas (Sebelius), and North Carolina (Cooper)–take serious blows due to failures to snag top tier recruits. The situation in reminiscent of 2006, when Democrats held the upper hand in Senate recruitment, and used it to make significant gains that year.
Here are some possible reasons to be optimistic, despite this forecast:
Rasmussen, which skews significantly toward Republicans, is over-represented in current polling averages.
A shift of 5% across the broad in these campaigns, some of which can already be accounted for in Rasmussen’s over-representation in these averages, would bring Democrats even in the forecast.
Republicans are not within 15% of any other potential pickups, so it can’t get much worse for Democrats.
For the next year, the two biggest factors in Senate campaigns will be the outcome of primary elections, and the state of the economy. More than ever, it is clear that Democrats will take a real electoral hit if there is not a significant electoral turnaround.
Current 2010 Senate Outlook: Net Republican Gain of 3-5 Seats Republican-Held Seats Democratic Pickups: 1-2 (Ohio, and possibly Missouri)
Keep an eye on Florida as well, if Republican Governor Charlie Crist faces trouble in his primary against Marco Rubio. Texas may also have a special election for Kay Bailey Hutchinson’s vacated seat.
Democratic-Held Seats Democratic Losses: 5-6 (Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware and Nevada, plus one or two of Arkansas, Illinois and Pennsylvania)
(Barbara Boxer’s seat in California, Russ Feingold’s seat in Wisconsin, Patty Murray’s in Washington, and the open seat special election in Massachusetts are some other campaigns to watch.)
Notes:
*= Faces primary, but heavy favorite
**= Faces serious primary challenges, but only candidate for which general election polling is available.
***= Not an announced candidate at this time
–Illinois is rated behind Pennsylvania, despite the better polling average for Republicans in Illinois, because there is only one recent poll of Illinois.
The forecast is based entirely on polling conducted after May 31st.
A wave of new polling over the last week has prompted an update in the Senate forecast. The overall seat change prediction remains the same, with Republicans netting 2-3 seats resulting in a Democratic caucus majority of either 58-42 or 57-43. The two category changes are Arkansas moving from “toss-up” to “lean Dem,” and Colorado moving from “lean Dem” to “toss-up.”
The recruiting phase of the 2010 elections is nearly over. With the exception of the two special elections (Massachussetts and Texas), the remaining holdout on the recuriting front is Delaware. In the first state, much still hinges on whether Beau Biden and / or Mike Castle ends up running, the major candidates. the latst indications seem to be that Beau Biden is, in fact, running.
Primaries are the next stage in the Senate picture. Here are the best case scenarios for each party:
Democrats: In Delaware, Biden runs, Castle does not; Paul is the Republican nominee in Kentucky; Norton is not the Republican nominee in Colorado, Crist is not the Republican nominee in Florida; Hendren is the Republican nominee in Arkansas. This would result in a forecast where Democrats net 0-1 seats.
Republicans: In Delaware, Castle runs; Grayson is the Republican nominee in Kentucky; Norton is the Republican nominee in Colorado; Crist is the Republican nominee in Florida; Baker or Coleman is the Republican nominee in Arkansas. This would result in a forecast where Republicans net 3-4 seats.
Of course, beyond primaries, much still depends on the overall political environment. If a good health care bill passes and a real economic turnaround are on the way by the spring or summer, then Democrats could very well net seats no matter the outcome of primaries. However, it is possible that everything could go wrong for Democrats in terms of primaries, recruiting and the political environment, thus resulting in a Republican net gain of 6-7 seats.
Current 2010 Senate Outlook: Net Republican Gain of 2-3 Seats Republican-Held Seats Democratic Pickups: 2 (Missouri and Ohio)
Russ Feingold’s seat in Wisconsin, and Patty Murray’s in Washington, are two other campaigns to watch.)
Notes:
*= Faces primary, but heavy favorite
**= Not an announced candidate at this time
***= Faces serious primary challenges, but only candidate for which general election polling is available.
Open Left’s Senate forecast for August shows Republicans picking up seats for the first time since, well, ever. Although the 2-3 seat Republican gain I forecast is a far cry from the 6 seats Arlen Specter thinks Republicans will gain, it still allows us to maintain our inglorious title as the most favorable to Republicans among all forecasters.
While I must sound like a very boring broken record at this point, almost everything still depends on the state of the economy. There isn’t a huge amount of recruiting left to be done, so changes in the campaigns from this point forward will largely depend on the national political environment. If the economy starts to improve in the Spring of 2010, then Democrats should at least draw even, and possibly even gain seats. If the economy does not improve, it is possible Republicans could ring up a 5-7 seat gain.
The fate of health care reform represents another major factor. If health care reform either fails altogether, or only an extremely weak reform is passed, expect Democratic turnout to drop sharply. This happened in 1994, too. New Jersey and Virginia should make good test cases for just how serious the threat of lowered Democratic turnout actually is.
This forecast is based entirely on polling. In the 2004, 2006 and 2008 elections, simple poll averaging proved as effective in predicting the final margin as any other methodology (as long as there were two or more polls in the final week, and as long as the outcome wasn’t a foregone conclusion of 20% or more).
Current 2010 Senate Outlook: Net Republican Gain of 2-3 Seats Republican-Held Seats Democratic Pickups: 2 (Missouri and Ohio)
Russ Feingold’s seat in Wisconsin, and Patty Murray’s in Washington, are two other campaigns to watch.)
Notes:
*= Faces primary, but heavy favorite
**= Not an announced candidate at this time
***= Faces competitive primary, but general election polling not available for other candidates.)
Arlen Specter thinks that Democrats are going to lose huge in the 2010 midterm elections (emphasis mine):
Political analysts predict Democrats will lose six Senate and 20 House seats next year, said Specter. He said likely Republican nominee Pat Toomey, a former congressman who is president of the anti-tax Club for Growth, has raised a lot of money for the Senate campaign.
“It’s going to be a tough general election,” Specter said.
Lose six seats in the Senate? What political analysts are saying that? Here are the four major election forecasters who have published complete Senate analyses for August. On average, they actually show more Republican-held seats threatened than Democratic-held seats:
Cook: 6 Republican-held toss-ups or leans, 5 Democratic-held toss-ups or leans
CQ Politics: 8 Republican-held toss-ups and leans; 5 Democratic-held toss-ups and leans
Rothenberg: 6 Republican-held toss-ups or leans; only 4 Democratic-held toss-ups or leans
538: 5 Republican held seats among top 12 campaigns; 7 Democratic-held seats among top 12 campaigns
Rather than predicting a Republican gain of six seats, as per Arlen Specter, these four forecasters average slightly more Republican-held Senate (6) seats as potential flips than Democratic-held seats (5).
Thanks for the pep-talk Arlen. “The party is screwed in 2010, so choose me or be even more screwed.” It is always fun when party higher-ups decide to become concern-troll, Village pundits in a attempt to cajole Democrats into accepting the status-quo of powerful institutions.
“I am very concerned about one-party rule in Washington,” Specter says in the spot. “That’s why it’s so important to elect Chris Hackett to Congress. With Chris Hackett, we’ll have a check against massive Democratic control. And that’s vital for our country.”
Perhaps Specter talking about substantial Democratic losses in the Senate is simply his fear of “massive Democratic control” coming to the surface again.
While glimpsing at my blackberry during vacation, I was eager to put up a new Senate forecast upon arriving back in Philadelphia. Senate forecasting isn’t the biggest news right now, but all of the developments over the past three weeks made this an essential piece of housekeeping.
The current forecast shows no net partisan change in the Senate, as Democratic gains in Ohio and Missouri are offset by losses in Connecticut and Delaware. Further, the number of close campaigns is increasing. As the chart below shows, about a handful of campaigns on both sides could also potentially switch. Due significantly to better candidate recruiting, Republicans have a slight advantage in the number of close, potential pickups they have created.
The complete forecast, including colorful charts, more causes for Republican improvement, and implications for ongoing legislative fights, can be found in the extended entry.
As of today, we are more than one-third of the way between the 2008 and 2010 general elections. In order or this arbitrary milestone, here is a look at the 2010 Senate picture.
The charts have been expanded to account for competitive primaries, and hopefully to provide greater clarity. The overall forecast, showing a net Democratic pickup of one seat, has not changed. The methodology, focusing only on polls, has also not changed.
2010 Senate Outlook: Net Democrat Gain of one seat, for a total of 61 Republican-Held Seats Democratic Pickups: 3 (Missouri and Ohio, plus either Kentucky or New Hampshire)
(Russ Feingold’s seat in Wisconsin, and Patty Murray’s in Washington, are two other campaigns to watch.)
Notes:
*= Not certian to enter campaign yet
**= Faces primary, but no polling for challenger
***= All Pennsylvania polling taken May 15th or later
****= There is no polling in Arkansas for Lincoln against any of the three announced Republican candidates. So, polling on Lincoln vs. other candidates, who are probably equally unknown, is listed instead.)
North Carolina and Nevada are listed at the bottom of their respective tables because, while the incumbents in those states appear vulnerable, no potential candidates are polling particularly close at this time.
This week’s Senate forecast update is the best one for Republicans all year. However, that isn’t saying much, since I currently forecast Democrats to make a net a net gain of one seat, for an overall total of 61. Further, that is the forecast even if all of Representative Mike Castle, former Governor George Pataki and former Senator Jon Sununu all run in Delaware, New York, and New Hampshire respectively. If all three were to decline, then Democrats would be forecast to net 3-5 seats, for an overall total of 63-65.
In short, even after Charlie Crist announced in Florida, and Roy Cooper declined to run in North Carolina, Democrats still have the upper hand in the 2010 Senate picture. That might change, but only if Republicans can not only score the recruits I listed above, but also find top challengers in Colorado and Nevada. One other worrying point could be Arkansas, that is if you actually care whether Blanche Lincoln wins or not (I don’t).
Here is the detailed forecast:
2010 Senate Outlook: Net Democrat Gain of one seat, for a total of 61 Republican-Held Seats Democratic Pickups: 3 (Missouri and Ohio, plus either Kentucky or New Hampshire)
(Note: Senate elections where there is no polling showing the incumbent party ahead by less than 10.0% are not examined in detail. Pennsylvania included due to expected popular demand.
*= Faces primary, but currently the heavy favorite against other announced candidates
** = There is no polling in Arkansas is not for Lincoln vs. Hendren, so previous polling on Lincoln versus other candidates is listed in its place.)
Notes on how to read the chart in the extended entry.
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