Senate forecast Update, January 26th

by: Chris Bowers

Tue Jan 26, 2010 at 17:30

Change from Jan 25: Democrats up 0.69 seats (ONE)

Projected 2010 Senate: Democrats 54-46 (assuming no caucus switches)

Even though it is only January, developments in the 2010 Senate picture keep coming in every day.  So, it is time for another major update to the Senate picture.

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Today's forecast shows the Democratic situation has improved in a number of states: Missouri, Colorado, Nevada, and North Carolina.  Much of this was due to new statewide polling from Polimetrix.  While those all of those states except Missouri still show significant leans, they have moved back into more competitive territory.

While still grim, the situation is far from hopeless for Democrats.  A national swing of 3%--which is very doable given the dominance of Rasmussen in the polls here and if the employment situation improves--would add another 2 seats to their total.  Keeping a majority of 56 seats would actually be pretty respectable, given that Republicans haven't had a majority like that since the 1928 elections.

Senate forecast overview

	Democrats*	Republicans
Not up for election	41	23
Currently safe	9	12
Sub-total	50	35
Current polling	3.68	11.32
Projected total	54	46

* = Because they caucus with Senate Democrats, Independents Bernie Sanders and Joe Lieberman are considered Democrats

The 15 currently competitive Senate campaigns
("Competitive" is defined as campaigns where incumbent party currently leads by 18% or less in current polling among announced candidates)
Democrats: 3.68 (4)
Republicans: 11.32 (11)

State	Democrat	Republican	Margin	Current Dem Win %
Wisconsin	Feingold	Wall	D 14.0	100%
WI	Feingold	Westlake	D 15.0	100%
California	Boxer	Campbell	D 7.0	97%
CA	Boxer	Fiorina	D 9.0	99%
CA	R Primary	Campbell	+5.0
Illinois	Giannoulis	Kirk*	D 1.5	72%
IL	Jackson	Kirk*	R 3.5	13%
IL	Hoffman	Kirk*	R 7.0	3%
IL	D Primary	Giannoulis	+14.3
Missouri	Carnahan	Blunt*	Even	50%
Pennnsylvania	Specter	Toomey	R 3.5	13%
PA	Sestak	Toomey	R 5.8	6%
PA	D Primary	Specter	+19.0
Arkansas	Lincoln	Baker	R 4.3	9%
AR	Lincoln	Coleman	R 1.3	31%
AR	Lincoln	Hendren	D 0.8	62%
AR	R Primary	Baker	+2.0	(straw poll)
Ohio	Fisher	Portman*	R 5.3	6%
OH	Brunner	Portman*	R 5.8	6%
OH	D Primary	Fisher	+5.5
Colorado	Bennet	Norton*	R 5.3	6%
CO	Romanoff	Norton*	R 7.8	3%
CO	D Primary	Romanoff	+14.0
Nevada	Reid	Tarkanian	R 5.8	6%
NV	Reid	Lowden	R 8.0	2%
NV	Reid	Angle	R 4.3	9%
NV	R Primary	Tarkanian	+0.5
North Carolina	Marshall*	Burr	R 6.7	4%
Florida	Meek*	Rubio	R 6.7	4%
FL	Meek*	Crist	R 10.0	0%
FL	R Primary	Rubio	+1.5
New Hampshire	Hodes*	Ayotte*	R 8.0	2%
Kentucky	Mongiardo	Paul	R 10.0	0%
KY	Conway	Paul	R 7.0	3%
KY	Mongiardo	Grayson	R 8.0	2%
KY	Conway	Grayson	R 8.5	2%
KY	D Primary	Mongiardo	+3.5
KY	R Primary	Paul	+11.0
Delaware	????	Castle*	R +???	0%
North Dakota	?????	Hoeven	R +???	0%

* = Faces primary challenge, but heavy favorite.

Please let me know how you think the forecast could be improved.  It remains a work in progress.  The methodology can be found here.

1. From now on, primary winners will only be projected based on current polling.

2. Only polls from the last 60 days are included in the averages (instead of 90 days).

3. Only officially announced candidates are included in the forecast.  Potential candidates are not considered until they actually file with the FEC.