Arlen Specter's Senate Forecast

by: Chris Bowers

Thu Aug 27, 2009 at 12:45

I work for Joe Sestak--come and join the campaign!

Arlen Specter thinks that Democrats are going to lose huge in the 2010 midterm elections (emphasis mine):

Political analysts predict Democrats will lose six Senate and 20 House seats next year, said Specter. He said likely Republican nominee Pat Toomey, a former congressman who is president of the anti-tax Club for Growth, has raised a lot of money for the Senate campaign.

"It's going to be a tough general election," Specter said.

Lose six seats in the Senate? What political analysts are saying that? Here are the four major election forecasters who have published complete Senate analyses for August. On average, they actually show more Republican-held seats threatened than Democratic-held seats:

Cook: 6 Republican-held toss-ups or leans, 5 Democratic-held toss-ups or leans
CQ Politics: 8 Republican-held toss-ups and leans; 5 Democratic-held toss-ups and leans
Rothenberg: 6 Republican-held toss-ups or leans; only 4 Democratic-held toss-ups or leans
538: 5 Republican held seats among top 12 campaigns; 7 Democratic-held seats among top 12 campaigns

Rather than predicting a Republican gain of six seats, as per Arlen Specter, these four forecasters average slightly more Republican-held Senate (6) seats as potential flips than Democratic-held seats (5).

Thanks for the pep-talk Arlen. "The party is screwed in 2010, so choose me or be even more screwed." It is always fun when party higher-ups decide to become concern-troll, Village pundits in a attempt to cajole Democrats into accepting the status-quo of powerful institutions.

While it isn't clear where Arlen Specter is getting his political analysis, one possibility is that he is channeling an advertisement that he cut for a Republican congressional candidate back in 2008:

"I am very concerned about one-party rule in Washington," Specter says in the spot. "That's why it's so important to elect Chris Hackett to Congress. With Chris Hackett, we'll have a check against massive Democratic control. And that's vital for our country."

Perhaps Specter talking about substantial Democratic losses in the Senate is simply his fear of "massive Democratic control" coming to the surface again.

Chris Bowers :: Arlen Specter's Senate Forecast

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Arlen Specter's Senate Forecast | 8 comments

what kind of a rebuttal is this? (4.00 / 3)

same article...

Specter rebutted Sestak's criticism that Specter cut the $787 billion economic stimulus bill early this year, before Specter changed parties. His support ensured the bill's passage, Specter said.
"Without my vote you wouldn't have had a stimulus package," Specter said.

That's not an answer at all. Maybe he should have said Ben Nelson made him cut it.

New Jersey politics at Blue Jersey.

by: Hopeful in NJ @ Thu Aug 27, 2009 at 11:52:40 AM CDT

by: you @ soon

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"The Devil Made Me Do It" (0.00 / 0)

is his "Plan B" answer.

Don't worry. It's all going to be "Plan B" before too long.

"Senate passes expanded GI bill despite Bush, McCain opposition"

by: Paul Rosenberg @ Thu Aug 27, 2009 at 12:17:32 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

And can Specter tell me ... (0.00 / 0)

who those 6 Senators are? ... is already saying that Harry Reid is toast? .. because Reid would certainly be among those 6 ... Specter predictions skills stink ... so this is just more of Specter showing his time has come ... and is long gone .. Specter is just like HoJo ... incessant backstabbing

by: Calvin Jones and the 13th Apostle @ Thu Aug 27, 2009 at 11:55:47 AM CDT

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We'd be better off still having a majority (4.00 / 1)

and having Reid lose his seat, anyway.

by: Valatan @ Thu Aug 27, 2009 at 12:21:26 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Maybe he's counting himself? (0.00 / 0)

If he thinks Republicans might again become a majority in the Senate, then maybe he's counting himself, because he would switch again?

This is just kidding, really, but the hallmark of a conservative thinker is the inability to see that history does not always repeat itself. Every Republican in Congress is absolutely certain that if they reproduce the conditions that led to their 1994 defeat of Democrats that the wheel of fortune will turn in their favor.

But they shouldn't be so fast. In 1994 they had Rush Limbaugh working more or less off the radar of many Americans who, like myself, were surprised by hearing of his gross influence then. Now that he's become much more public, and much more ridiculous, perhaps things might be different this time.

Finally, if it turns out that Democrats don't lose big in the midterms, then we might begin to credit Obama's mastery of politics: by continuously offering his hand in 'bipartisanship' and being forcefully and loudly rebuffed by Republicans, they will be able to take no real credit when and if things go well. Look at the stimulus they unanimously opposed yet try hard to take credit for when it reaches their home states. They try, but people know...

by: jjmm @ Thu Aug 27, 2009 at 12:02:50 PM CDT

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Maybe He's Just Auditioning For A Job In Cable (4.00 / 1)

Once he loses the primary.

Obviously self-interested and wildly delusional predictions?

Check and check!

"Pennsylvania For Specter" may not be his "Plan B" after all.

"Senate passes expanded GI bill despite Bush, McCain opposition"

by: Paul Rosenberg @ Thu Aug 27, 2009 at 12:15:59 PM CDT

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Ok, Arlen, go back to the GOP (0.00 / 0)

why hang out with the M$P that is in decline?

"It sounds wrong...
...but its right."

by: SpitBall @ Thu Aug 27, 2009 at 12:36:07 PM CDT

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Devil's advocacy (0.00 / 0)

I don't think this is likely, but it is possible that Specter's playing the expectations game. Since they can't practically gain many more seats than they have, a likely result in 2010 will be Dems maintaining roughly the same majorities. By setting expectations early that Dems will lose seats, it'll look far more impressive when they hold the line.

by: BigTuna @ Thu Aug 27, 2009 at 15:00:36 PM CDT

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Arlen Specter's Senate Forecast | 8 comments

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