Senate Forecast, August 27th: Republican Net Gain

by: Chris Bowers

Thu Aug 27, 2009 at 16:30


Open Left's Senate forecast for August shows Republicans picking up seats for the first time since, well, ever.  Although the 2-3 seat Republican gain I forecast is a far cry from the 6 seats Arlen Specter thinks Republicans will gain, it still allows us to maintain our inglorious title as the most favorable to Republicans among all forecasters.

While I must sound like a very boring broken record at this point, almost everything still depends on the state of the economy. There isn't a huge amount of recruiting left to be done, so changes in the campaigns from this point forward will largely depend on the national political environment.  If the economy starts to improve in the Spring of 2010, then Democrats should at least draw even, and possibly even gain seats.  If the economy does not improve, it is possible Republicans could ring up a 5-7 seat gain.

The fate of health care reform represents another major factor.  If health care reform either fails altogether, or only an extremely weak reform is passed, expect Democratic turnout to drop sharply.  This happened in 1994, too.  New Jersey and Virginia should make good test cases for just how serious the threat of lowered Democratic turnout actually is.

This forecast is based entirely on polling. In the 2004, 2006 and 2008 elections, simple poll averaging proved as effective in predicting the final margin as any other methodology (as long as there were two or more polls in the final week, and as long as the outcome wasn't a foregone conclusion of 20% or more).

Current 2010 Senate Outlook: Net Republican Gain of 2-3 Seats
Republican-Held Seats
Democratic Pickups: 2 (Missouri and Ohio)
State Type Democrat Republican Margin #Polls
Ohio
OH Primary Fisher +4.5 2
OH Open Fisher Portman D 9.0 3
OH Open Brunner Portman D 5.3 3
Missouri
MO Open Carnahan Blunt* D 4.3 3
New Hampshire
NH Open Hodes* Ayotte R 2.5 2
Kentucky
KY Primary Mongiardo +11.5 2
KY Primary Grayson +11.0 1
KY Open Conway Grayson R 1.5 2
KY Open Mongiardo Grayson R 5.0 2
Louisiana
LA Incumbent Melancon Vitter R 9.5 2

Also of note...
State Type Democrat Republican Margin #Polls
North Carolina
NC Incumbent Generic Burr R +7.0 1
Texas
TX Special None yet None yet None yet 1
Keep an eye on Florida as well, if Republican Governor Charlie Crist faces trouble in his primary against Marco Rubio.

Democratic-Held Seats
Democratic Losses: 4-5 (Connecticut, Delaware and Nevada, plus one or two of Arkansas, Illinois and Pennsylvania)
State Type Democrat Republican Margin #Polls
Delaware
DE Special Biden** Castle** R 14.5 2
Nevada
NV Incumbent Reid Tarkanian*** R 11.0 1
Connecticut
CT Incumbent Dodd* Simmons* R 9.0 2
Pennsylvania
PA Primary Sestak Specter R +20.0 4
PA Incumbent Specter Toomey R 2.0 3
PA Open Sestak Toomey R 3.7 3
Illinois
IL Special Giannoulis** Kirk* R 1.5 2
Arkansas
AR Incumbent Lincoln Coleman*** R 1.0 1
Colorado
CO Special Bennet Frazier D 4.5 2
CO Special Bennet Buck D 5.0 2
California
CA Incumbent Boxer Fiorina* D 12.5 2
Russ Feingold's seat in Wisconsin, and Patty Murray's in Washington, are two other campaigns to watch.)

Notes:
*= Faces primary, but heavy favorite
**= Not an announced candidate at this time
***= Faces competitive primary, but general election polling not available for other candidates.)
Chris Bowers :: Senate Forecast, August 27th: Republican Net Gain

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Senate Forecast, August 27th: Republican Net Gain | 16 comments
typo alert (4.00 / 1)
The line for NV appears under Delaware.

Not much to say.  We're still all hoping Castle doesn't run.

New Jersey politics at Blue Jersey.

fixed (n/t) (0.00 / 0)

[ Parent ]
WTF ?????? (4.00 / 2)
The idea that Americans would vote to put more Republicans in Congress after what that party has done to this nation in recent years gives me very little hope for the concept of democracy.  Wouldn't a functional democracy require that the citizens pay attention?

Oy, Oy, Oy...

They were paying attention.... (0.00 / 0)
And now that the "crisis" is over, we're back to 2004 mode where swiftboating rules the day...  very sad...

REID: Voting against us was never part of our arrangement!
SPECTER: I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!
REID: This deal keeps getting worse all the time!
[ Parent ]
I think it's clear (4.00 / 1)
that Specter's "forecast" comes from Nate Silver, who said the Dems would lose 6 seats in an intemperate comment a few weeks ago.  Silver's the only person I've seen giving those numbers, even on the right.

Also, you list Specter's lead over Sestak as "R+20.0."  Even if that's a typo, I think you should leave it, since everyone knows Specter is really a Republican. :)

ProgressiveHistorians: History For Our Future

Lets face it (4.00 / 1)
If we dont get a good healthcare bill this year, we are never going to get one.  If we cant even do it 59/60 Senators, how are we going to do it with 55 Senators?
it makes me angry (4.00 / 3)
that after Daschle lost we chose a majority leader from a purple state instead of from a safe blue state. If we had Durbin as majority leader we'd be in a stronger position.

Join the Iowa progressive community at Bleeding Heartland.
Good opposition research would discover what Gerson (0.00 / 0)
is saying over at RCP:
quote
Democratic partisans still insist that imposing reform by a "go-it-alone" strategy is possible and necessary. The political cost, the argument goes, has already been paid. Why not reap the political benefit by pleasing the base? Didn't we see, in 1993 and 1994, the cost of coming up empty on health reform? It can't happen again.

This might make sense if the main obstacle was Republican resistance to a popular bill. But it isn't. Democrats are fighting against a swift current of fiscal responsibility, widespread skepticism about government and resentment against the use of Medicare as the smashed piggy bank for reform.

A party-line, Democratic transformation of American health care in this environment -- in the midst of decisively losing a public argument -- would smack of power-hungry radicalism, more the liberalism of Robespierre than Jefferson.
unquote

The voters do not trust Congress. Their attitude...a pox on both their houses. So incumbents will take a beating. People are putting themselves on the gold standard. They  know it is a house of cards and they do not want Congress  screwing something else up.

Mace

If I had to guess (0.00 / 0)
I think we would lose at 5 seats at best, and might lose as many as 8.  The only real hope for a pickup would be New Hampshire.  Against that would be losses in CT, PA, Ill, Arkansas, Colorado and Nevada.  

I would not assume what look like safe seats are in fact safe seats.

If the economy does not recover, we are toast.  My guess is we will struggle to keep the House.

In the end the defining fight over 2010 may be over a second stimulus, and not health care.

Was electing Obama really worth this? (0.00 / 0)
The man is an absolute wreck who cant sell any of his proposals to save his life and Democrats are all paying a huge price for it.  We probably should have just let McCain win and let Republicans rightfully take the blame for what is happening.  
[ Parent ]
I don't think it has much to do with (0.00 / 0)
Obama.  It has to do with the economy.

If it recovers, and the TARP is mostly paid back and GM is privatized, 2010 will look completely different than it does today.

[ Parent ]
The economy is recovering (0.00 / 0)
The unemployment rate is likely to fall to 9.2% next week.  However, Obama just doesnt seem to have the political skill to take advantage of it.  
[ Parent ]
If it falls to 9.2% (0.00 / 0)
I will do a backward flip.  The fall last month was in some ways a fluke.  There is no way I can see to align the weekly unemployment claims with another fall in unemployment.
[ Parent ]
It's true, look at the great job all the other Democrats are (0.00 / 0)
doing in selling this.....oh, right.

While there are some exceptions, the vast majority of Dems sounds weak, confused and lacking in confidence. When so many in the party are failing in a similar manner, it's an institutional problem.  

Complaining about Obama as the sole problem, rather than an important part of a larger problem, misdiagnoses it, and mislead us on the solution.  We need to change the party (and its relationship to the base), not just choose a different candidate for the top of the ticket.


Who are the best keepers of the people's liberties? The people themselves. The sacred trust can be no where so safe as in the hands most interested in preserving it.
James Madison

[ Parent ]
Could it come down to turnout and enthusiasm? (0.00 / 0)
Even if the economy does not recover, the GOP won't have much to sell, so the organizational effort on the Dem side has to be about maintaining gov't run by some standard of reason rather than reactionary nonsense. Admittedly, that's not a stance that'll elicit much fire-in-the-belly cheerleading, but the one thing we can't count on the GOP base to do between now and then is continue dialing up the crazy. As we're seeing in the healthcare debate, that tack inspires anxiety and hesitance, but not necessarily converts. And whatever Obama's missteps, there is still a large percentage of the electorate that wants to see him succeed, and feels that what he needs is more time to do so. Can that be tapped into?
Whoops: typo (0.00 / 0)
That second sentence should read "the one thing we CAN count on the GOP base to do..."
[ Parent ]
Senate Forecast, August 27th: Republican Net Gain | 16 comments
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