The 4 daily tracking polls have been moving in Barack Obama's direction in recent days and today the average is: Obama 46.75, McCain 44.75, a 2-point lead for the Democrat.
Obama is nearly back to where he was Sept. 6 when the average showed him leading McCain by 3 points. Obama appears to trail in swing state polling as Chris points out below because some of those polls are afflicted by age. Other forecasters electoral projections are also afflicted by inclusion of Zogby internet polls, which might be worse than old polling.
By my accounting, the last remnants of the McCain-Palin bounce faded away last weekend. Polling conducted Sept. 15 onward should show a more positive picture for Obama at least until something happens to change the current direction of the race. There's a rumor, which I'm starting right here, that McCain will dump Palin and replace her with Jim Cramer from CNBC's Mad Money. Sounds about right.
Full numbers are inside.
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As Chris just wrote below as I was preparing this, the Tracking Poll Average now shows a tie:
Obama, 46.0
McCain, 46.0
This is the first time in the history of the tracking poll average that we've had an exact tie, except when there were just two tracking polls when it happened all the time.
The trend is clear, McCain's lead has been slowly fading from it's peak of exactly 2.0 points on Sept. 8 and 9. What is not clear is whether this fade is just the typical end of a bounce or if it is due, in part, to the recent negative press (well deserved) experienced by the McCain-Palin campaign. I hope it's the latter because rather than settling with where we were right before the conventions started (a tie) I would like to see the McCain-Palin slide continue.
What do you think will happen tomorrow in the tracking poll average? The poll is inside along with tracking poll numbers going back to Sept. 5.
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There's been some debate over the relative advantage or disadvantage of the Obama campaign focusing too much on Sarah Palin. In a moment, I'll give an argument why focusing on her is win-win-win.
First, though, the tracking poll numbers. These were covered earlier today in quick hits but I'll recap here because the news is good for a change. McCain's lead in the tracking poll average had been in the 1-to-2 point range for almost a full week but today dropped to just a 0.25 point lead, 46.25 to 46.0. So my bold prediction from yesterday of the lead falling below 1 today was correct (full numbers on the inside).
Now, back to Palin. One of the 4 tracking polls, Research 2000 for dKos, has some interesting internals which show Palin in a steep favorability dive. Follow along for more.
Update: Almost forgot. I'd like to thank Tina Fey for accepting my plea for her to make cameos as Palin on SNL this fall.
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(UPDATE: Correction below, I inverted the D/H tracking numbers)
Almost no A little movement in the tracking poll numbers released today compared to yesterday. Barack Obama's numbers were almost identical across all four while McCain improved a bitwent down a point in one and up a point in another. The result is the exact same 1-point a 1.5 point McCain lead in the tracking poll average, 47.0 to 45.5.
The 4 tracking polls are Research 2000 for DKos, Rasmussen, Gallup, and Diageo/Hotline and each is based on 3-day rolling averages which serve to eliminate some of the bounce that smaller one day polls would exhibit. By averaging them together you get even less choppiness.
For a full week, Obama is between 45.0 and 45.75 in the average. McCain is almost as stable coming in between 46.2 and 47.3 during that same period. If the recent bad press for the McCain-Palin ticket is going to have any effect we will see it in this average in the next day or two. Otherwise we must expect that this is the new state of the race until the debates begin in about 2 weeks. Daily numbers for the last 9 days are inside.
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John McCain maintains a 1-point lead in the tracking poll average today with McCain at 46.75 and Barack Obama at 45.75. The 4 tracking polls are Research 2000 for DKos, Rasmussen, Gallup, and Diageo/Hotline.
This is the second straight day with a 1.0 margin between the two after two days of small drops from McCain's peak in the tracking poll average of 2.0. The numbers for the past week are inside.
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Today The two tracking polls for Saturday have been released. Gallup shows Obama 47%-45% McCain, down from Obama 48%–44% McCain the day before. Rasmussen shows Obama 49%–46% McCain, which is actually an increase of 1% for Obama from yesterday’s 48%–46%. The Diageo tracking poll, which yesterday showed Obama ahead 46%-40%, is not released on Saturdays and Sunday.
Last Two Days Day by day experts Haggi and Nate Silver concur on the Thursday and Friday results for Gallup. Both estimate that Obama was up by 1% in Thursday’s polling, but that McCain was up by 2% in Friday’s polling (see Haggai’s and Nate’s numbers). However, they disagree strongly on the two most recent days of Rasmussen polling. For that poll, Nate estimates that Obama was up 2% on Thursday and 1% on Friday, while Haggi estimates that Thursday was a tie but Friday showed Obama up by 6%.
Tomorrow Haggai and Nate seem to agree that McCain holds a 0.5% lead in tomorrow’s Gallup poll, with today’s surveys still pending. So, for Gallup, we can safely assume that if tomorrow’s tracking poll is tied or shows an Obama lead, then today’s Gallup polling will have been pretty good for Obama. However, if McCain leads, then his convention bounce has not yet begun to fade.
While we do know that Obama leads in Rasmussen’s Sunday poll, pending today’s surveys, we don’t really know how much he leads by. Nate estimates about 1.5%, while Haggai estimates 3.0-3.5%. It is a pretty big discrepancy. Obama should go down by about 2% tomorrow if Nate is correct, while he should hold about even if Haggai is correct. I guess we will have to wait and see.
Analysis It is starting to look like this entire two-week stretch didn’t change much in the campaign. The above analysis seems to indicate that Obama leads by about 1.3-1.5% 0.5%-1.5% in the combined Gallup and Rasmussen tracking polls for the two nights following Palin’s and McCain’s speeches. This is, I believe, exactly where the campaign was before Obama choose Biden. So, after the initial Biden dip, the big Clinton bounce, the decent Obama speech, the small Palin announcement drop, the huge Palin post-selection “vetting” bump, and the McCain-Palin acceptance speech fall, we end up right back a the same narrow Obama lead where we began.
Personally, I am hoping that the tracking polls will start to move back to Obama on Tuesday, as the Republican convention reaction days start to cycle out of the polls. The two pieces of hope that I keep holding onto are that Republicans could be going through a bounce period right now that will inevitably fade, and also that the Gallap and Rasmussen polls have consistently been 3.2%-3.4% more favorable to McCain than all other polling firms combined. If those are both true, than a narrow tracking poll lead for Obama is actually decent news, as it means that Obama is ahead by about 3.0-3.5% nationally, and soon to be even more. Factors that worry me include Republicans closing the partisan self-identification gap to only 5.7%, and that Obama supposedly polls better on the weekends (although I can’t seem to find a link confirming that rumor).
Phew. These weren’t exactly the numbers I wanted, but they also aren’t terrible. At least the morning shakes are over now. How are you feeling about these polls?
I am going to need to enter tracking poll rehab after this election, but for now I am going to dive in head first and worry about the consequences later.
Today’s tracking polls show Obama still ahead, but positive movement for McCain. Gallup moves from Obama 49%–42% McCain, to Obama 48%–44% McCain. Rasmussen moves from Obama 50%–45% McCain, to Obama 48%–46% McCain.
As those of you following the tracking polls closely already know, large movement was expected today, as Monday’s enormously positive numbers for Obama were replaced by Thursday’s post-Palin speech numbers. To show just how deep into the addiction I am, Haggai’s daily tracking poll estimates for yesterday are Obama 47.7%–46.6% in Gallup (with a 1.5% MoE in both directions) and McCain 47.0%–Obama 45.8% in Rasmussen (with a 1.5% MoE in both directions). That averages to an exact tie.
So, it appears that Palin pulled McCain even, for one day, in the tracking polls. That is actually pretty good news, especially when one considers that Gallup and Rasmussen have consistently been 3.2%-3.4% more favorable to McCain than all other polls. Based on polling so far in the campaign, it is reasonable to assume that a dead heat in the tracking polls indicates an overall, narrow Obama lead. Even if his lead has shrunk, if Obama is still ahead after Palin, that is good news.
Now, the more sobering news is that tomorrow’s tracking polls will be the first to reflect McCain’s speech. While the speech didn’t feel like a number mover, I still think it is reasonable to assume tonight’s tracking poll surveys will be better for McCain than Tuesday night’s, which they are replacing. A free hour of advertising has to be better than the giant goose egg that was Monday night of the Republican convention. Obama still held a solid, 4% lead in Tuesday night’s surveys, but last night about 40 million people watched McCain’s speech–more than watched Obama’s. With yesterday roughly even, it is hard for me to imagine that Obama polls a 4% lead tonight, meaning that the tracking polls will continue to move toward McCain.
Returning to good news, we should take heart that it is unlikely polling will improve much from this point for McCain. The times immediately after conventions are almost always the high point for every single campaign. As such, the overall picture appears to be that McCain has closed the gap, but that Obama weathered the storm and still leads narrowly. I’ll take it. At this point, I just want to win by any margin.
P.S. Hotline and CBS might also be instituting tracking polls. I’ll look into that.
Update: Nate at 538 also tries to crack the individual daily numbers for the tracking polls, too. His estimate for yesterday is a bit more postiive than Haggai’s, showing Obama up 1.5%. In the comments, Hagai sticks by his guns.
Following up on Chris's post yesterday on Barack Obama's rise in the tracking polls, the news today is good as well. Both Gallup and Rasmussen show an increase in Obama's margin over McCain. Here are the margins along with those released yesterday and Thursday (day of the Berlin speech):
Gallup Rasmussen
Thursday: +2 +4
Friday: +6 +5
Saturday: +7 +6
It is quite possible these margins will increase again as the last of the pre-speech data drops out and is replaced by more post-speech data. Of course Obama has seen these bumps before, but it will be interesting to see if it holds this time or reverts back to earlier averages.
As an aside, can anyone make sense of this headline and this part of the story:
While his reception at each stop on the trip has been generous, the polls showed his message was having less impact among some segments of the US voter population. A Gallup poll found Obama leading McCain 47-41 percent, a four-point gain for the Republican hopeful from earlier in the week.
Huh?
Update (Chris): More great coverage of the bounce:
A daily tracking poll from Gallup published on Friday showed Obama with a six-point lead over McCain, close to the lead he has held over his Republican rival for the past several weeks.
Yep, moving from a two-point to a six-point lead is “close.”
