| Having taken a lengthy vacation from politics (for pressing engagements on other fronts), I've been freed up just in time for some good old Congressional hijinks as the health care bill approaches its Waterloo.
After two or three weeks lurking (most particularly here), I'm impressed with what seems to be a general understanding that, while a bill with a public option (of some kind) might secure 51 votes in the Senate, it would stand no chance of winning the necessary 3/5 vote on cloture.
With this in mind, Chris has canvassed as 51% solutions both reconciliation and the nuclear option.
Whilst either would be red meat to any connoisseur of Congressional shenanigans, the most vital question to ask before anyone got carried away was (and is): how on earth will you find the 51 votes?
The so-called whip count on the public option - which I seem to recall stands at around 45 senators expressing themselves in favor - is worse than useless for this purpose: because those 45 senators were not asked whether they favored a 51% solution, which is the only way in the which the public option can pass the Senate.
Of course, few, if any, would have answered so incendiary a question. Why should they, given that lefties seem content with the worthless assurance they'd already given?
Either reconciliation or the nuclear option would surely raise a media firestorm, not only among those outlets targeting the 'death panel' crazies but also across establishment media. The messagemeisters on the right will have honed their strategy over months to meet such a challenge and the Wurlitzer will be ready to wurl.
And we know from bitter experience how bad the Dems and their friends are at responding at such attacks.
If the right can produce 'death panels' out of thin air, a 51% solution will be more than adequate to fuel fantasies about Obama sweeping aside the Constitution to take over the government; pshopped photos of Obama as an African dictator, fly-whisk in hand. And much worse.
And the senators who lefties are fondly supposing will follow through with their support of the public option are (mostly) the folks who talked a good rebellion in earlier Congresses, but somehow never quite made the play!
On the basis of cool, hard political calculation, most senators will see absolutely no percentage in a 51% solution - especially given that the public option which could garner 51 votes would probably be a pretty feeble article.
And this is before any consideration of the hit that senators might take to their campaign finances from being tagged as bomb-throwers.
Or what would happen if, on the key 51% vote, the Dems somehow came up short.
For selfish reasons, I'd love to see the Senate Dems go to the mat on the public option - which inevitably means going 51%.
So I'd love to be shown credible evidence that Senate Dems (or enough of them) are indeed ready, willing and able to go through with it.
Because I've not seen any yet. |
