It is a truism in politics that there are more swing voters in the middle of the electorate–self-identified moderates and Independents–than at the edges. However, exit polls indicates that is not necessarily the case. In fact, from 2004 to 2008, Democrats appear to have gained more votes from self-identified liberals than from any other ideological group.
- In 2004, according to exit polls, 17.85% of the electorate were self-identified liberals who voted for Kerry
- In 2008, according to exit polls, 19.58% of the electorate were self-identified liberals who voted for Obama.
- From 2004 to 2008, exit polls estimate that the Democratic Presidential nominee improved his overall vote percentage by 1.73% entirely through self-identified liberals.
By way of comparison:
- In 2004, according to exit polls, 24.84% of the electorate were self-identified moderates who voted for Kerry.
- In 2008, according to exit polls, 26.40% of the electorate were self-identified moderates who voted for Obama.
- From 2004 to 2008, the Democratic Presidential nominee improved his overall vote percentage by 1.56% entirely among self-identified moderates.
So, according to exit polls, Democrats actually gained more from 2004 to 2008 among self-identified liberals than among self-identified moderates. Conservatives were not far behind, either:
- In 2004, according to exit polls, 5.44% of the electorate were self-identified conservatives who voted for Kerry.
- In 2008, according to exit polls, 6.80% of the electorate were self-identified conservatives who voted for Obama.
- From 2004 to 2008, the Democratic Presidential nominee improved his overall vote percentage by 1.36% entirely among self-identified conservatives.
Swing voters from 2004 to 2008 were spread fairly evenly across the ideological spectrum, with liberals, moderates and conservatives all making up significant portions. Although it is within the margin for rounding error, exit polling actually suggests that liberals were the largest swing voting block of all.
If elected officials primarily consider themselves accountable to voters who can potentially change their voting habits, and thus change the results of elections, it would be unwise to focus solely on the middle of the electorate. Roughly one-third of the swing voters that put Democrats in office are liberals, and as such Democrats need to keep those voters happy. Further, even apart from votes, the partisan and ideological base drives resources–donations, volunteers, positive messaging to family, friends and co-workers–which can in turn be used to acquire votes from non-base groups.
As such, while some Democrats may think there are no repercussions for using the partisan and ideological base as either a foil or a corner in a triangulation scheme, there are good reasons to think that that dissing the base is an extremely dangerous electoral strategy. While the 2000 election should have already made this obvious, these numbers further show the liberal vote is not static. The liberal vote can change in ways that can result in Democrats winning, or losing, elections.
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