Not surprisingly, a new poll of public opinion in the Arab world (with a huge sample size, 3,976) finds that attitudes toward Barack Obama have cooled considerably. This was the third such annual poll, conducted by a collaboration of the Brookings Institute and the University of Maryland, carried out by Zogby International. (Announcement here, pdf here.) The principle investigator is Shibley Telhami, Nonresident Senior Fellow, Saban Center at Brookings and Anwar Sadat Professor for Peace and Development, University of M Maryland.
In announcing the poll, three key findings were cited:
• A substantial change in the assessment of President Obama, both as President of the United States and of Obama personally.
• Remarkably stable views on the Arab-Israeli conflict and the prospects of its resolution
• A majority of the Arab public now see a nuclear-armed Iran as being better for the Middle East
There's actually somewhat increased pessimism regarding the Arab-Isreali conflict, but the shift is relatively small. And the support for Iran's nuclear program almost certainly reflects the disenchantment with the prospects of US change. So the story around declining approval for Obama really is the centerpiece here.
It should be obvious that this topline result is bad for us generally, and specifically bad for dealing with international terror. Indeed, it serves to underscore the total wrong-headedness of the "war on terror" framework. We clearly are losing the battle for hearts and minds--and we deserve to be losing, considering how completely we have failed to consider the legitimate needs and desires of the Arab world--as well as the wider world of Islam. Of all the opportunities that Obama has thrown away, this is perhaps the most tragic, since the opening was so great, and his hand was so relatively free.
Two related questions gave very similar and stark results concerning the loss of positive attitudes. First, there is the loss of hope:
Second, there is the growth of negative attitudes:
The disappointment and negative attitudes are not hard to understand, as two reasons dominate Arab public opinion:
Arabs are actually pleased with improved attitudes towards Islam, but since this isn't what cocerns them most, it's not having the impact it might have if the atmospherics were matched with actual results:
This can be seen in the relatively insignificant differences in attitudes towards the US overal from 2008 through 2010. The departure of Bush did provide a modest shift, which persisted through 2010, but we're still viewed quite negatively overall:
There are four items that dominate negative views of US policy:
There is also a fairly accurate sense of what is driving US policy--much more accurate than Americans own views:
When it comes to admired world leaders, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Erdogan has rocketed to the top, clearly because of his strong stance against Israeli's conduct in the slaughter of Turkish citizens in the Gaza Freedom Flotilla. But Hugo Chavez is still noteworthy for proving more admired than anyone else in the Arab or Islamic worlds:
Finally, there's clear evidence of continued growth in internet use, most dramatic in the continued shrinkage of those who never use the Internet:
Nothing is a given, of course. But eventually, the growth potential for citizen-level peer-to-peer communication is probably our greatest opportunity for peace and justice in the world.
Knowing basic facts such as those revealed in this poll is a basic starting point for moving that process forward.
