Senate Hopes, Fears And Forecasts–Your Call!

by: Paul Rosenberg

Sun Nov 02, 2008 at 20:30


This is a followup to yuesterday’s diary, House Hopes, Fears And Forecasts–Your Call!  Some folks just couldn’t contain themselves and had to talk about their Senate hopes, fears and forecasts.  But we’re not keeping track of small stuff here, so anyone who did so has a chance to weigh in again–and even tweak their calls, if so inclinced.

What I want to know is:

(1) What’s your biggest hope for

(a) Electing someone to the Senate?  And why, of course, if you still have the strength to put that into words.

(b) Getting rid of someone in the Senate?  And, of course, why.

(2) What’s your biggest fear of what we might not accomplish?  

(3) What’s your forecast of how well we’ll do? (And, don’t forget to double up by voting in the poll as well.)

FYI, current predictions from the House diary are:

* Gain 26-30 – 19 votes (43.18%)
* Gain 21-25 – 10 votes (22.73%)
* Gain 30-35 – 9 votes (20.45%)
* Gain More than 35 – 4 votes (9.09%)
* Gain 15-20 – 2 votes (4.55%)
* Gain less Than 15 – 0 votes (0%)
Paul Rosenberg :: Senate Hopes, Fears And Forecasts–Your Call!
Poll
How Many Senate Seats Do We Gain?
Less Than 4
4-5- Seats
6-7 Seats
8-9 Seats
10 Or More

Results


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my biggest hope (4.00 / 3)
(1) What’s your biggest hope for

(b) Getting rid of someone in the Senate?  And, of course, why.

Norm Coleman.  Two words: Paul Wellstone.

He needs to go crawl back under the rock he came from.  


 
My Pics, Hopes And Fears (4.00 / 1)
(1) What’s your biggest hope for

(a) Electing someone to the Senate?

    Al Franken. High-profile progressive. In the race to keep Paul Wellstone’s legacy alive. What more do you want?

(b) Getting rid of someone in the Senate?  

    Mitch McConnel, of course. Cut off the head.

(2) What’s your biggest fear of what we might not accomplish?

    Not do enough to make Lieberman irrelevant.

(3) What’s your forecast of how well we’ll do?

    I say we make 60 in the Senate without Lieberman: Virginia, New Mexico, Colorado, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Oregon, Alaska, Minnesota, Kentucky and Georgia.


“You know what they say — those of us who fail history… doomed to repeat it in summer school.” — Buffy The Vampire Slayer, Season 6, Episode 3

 
Franken! Franken! Franken! (4.00 / 3)
I have been a huge fan of Al Franken for years. I listened to his Air America show every day. I bought his books. I loved him when he was on SNL.

He’s a solid progressive who is intelligent and informed.

He knows how to brutally make fun of the right wing! I can’t emphasize that enough. When it comes to ridiculing the right, he’s like Barney Frank on steroids.

He can draw the contiguous United States by hand. I imagine him doing it on the Senate floor some day.

And Bill O’Reilly would be absolutely devastated.  


 
Let's see (4.00 / 2)
I hope Al Franken wins, that’s probably my biggest senate hope. I don’t feel like I need to hope for many other races; NC, OR, AK, etc. seem to be in the clear.

I’m also remaining bold and predicting Jim Martin to win without need for a run-off.

I didn’t post in the house thread… I’m predicting about 20 seats. My biggest hopes are with Darcy, I’m not terribly invested in any other races in particular, though I’ve sent money to several candidates. I’d like to see nutbag Steve King go down in IA-05.

In local races, I’m still holding out hope that Sheriff Mike Hussein Scott loses his re-election bid. I talked to his opponent, Christian Meister today at the Obama office. It’s probably a long shot though.

Conduct your own interview of Sarah Palin!


 
my hopes (4.00 / 1)
1a.  I really hope John Kerry wins.  Okay, let’s go with Martin in Georgia.

b. McConnell, who will otherwise try to filibuster everything.

2. Not sure I have a fear with the senate.  

3.  I’ll go with 7 pickups, but I do think we have hope of doing better.

New Jersey politics at Blue Jersey.


 
My biggest fear (0.00 / 0)
Harry Reid decides having Lieberman “in the caucus” is more important than enforcing unity.

Kick Joe out.  Even if it means only having 55/45 advantage.


 
You heard it here first… Rice beats Inhofe in OK!!! (4.00 / 2)
No one has paid attention to this race and the limited polling that has been done has shown a definite tightening.  So, here’s the victory formula: (i) huge turnout among AAs and Hispanics statewide; plus (ii) huge turnout among youth in Oklahoma City, Norman and Tulsa; plus (iii) depressed evangelical turnout statewide.  Strange thing is, this all seems to be happening.

Watch this race and be surprised.  


 
Are You Certain… (4.00 / 2)
that a plague of locusts doesn’t figure in there somewhere as well?

Cause, what with Inhofe’s deeply superstitious view of climate matters, I could definitely see that coming into play.

“You know what they say — those of us who fail history… doomed to repeat it in summer school.” — Buffy The Vampire Slayer, Season 6, Episode 3


[ Parent ]  
Here's mine. (4.00 / 2)
1a. Scott Kleeb. He’s a real people powered kind of guy who represents the new face of the Democratic Party and the 50 State Strategy.

1b. Same as shelenny.

Norm Coleman. For Paul.

2. Franken could lose and I’ll have to deal with Coleman for six more years.

3. We’ll win in VA, NM, CO, AK, NH, NC and OR. I also think Al will pull it out in MN and that Martin will win in the runoff. So 9 seats I guess.  

John McCain: Beacuse lobbyists should have more power


 
picks (4.00 / 2)
1a) Franken- for Wellstone (who’s ’90 campaign I volunteered for when I was 16).

1b) Inohofe- truly, truly vile.

2. Franken loses

8 seats


 
Franken (4.00 / 1)
Period.  He has to win.  Its so important.

 
Mine (4.00 / 1)
1a: Jeff Merkley. Time to make sure the West Coast is entirely blue in the US Senate.

1b: Mitch McConnell, for the reason someone mentioned above – he’s a clever motherfucker who needs to be out of our way next year.

2: Not electing Franken.

3: +8.


 
The Debate (4.00 / 3)
The Final Debate among Franken, Coleman and Barkley was held tonight at the Fitzgerald Theatre in Downtown St. Paul, sponsored by Minnesota Public Radio.  They archive their events, so if you go to the MPR site, you can listen to a pretty strong hour of red-meat politics, including at least 15 minutes on the latest Coleman scandal.  I recommend.  

The Minnesota Poll out today puts Franken 4 points ahead of Coleman, with Barkley fading from 18 to 15 points.  (Obama is 11 points up on McCain).  It will be determined by DFL turnout.  


 
Here Goes (4.00 / 2)
1a. Jim Martin. There is not a more decent nor a more competent public servant in all of Georgia.

1b. Tie. Conversely to Martin, there is not a lazier, more loathesome, more undeserving human being in all of Georgia than Saxby Chambliss. His willingness to dive head first into the gutter is matched only by Ted Stevens’ willingness to trade favors for votes.

2. The Democrats must at least get to 57 plus Sanders plus Lieberman. Getting stuck on 56+2 will be a disappointment. That largely hinges on Franken.

3. We’ll get to 57+2. Democrats win VA (Warner), New Mexico (Udall), Colorado (Udall), Alaska (Begich), New Hampshire (Shaheen), Oregon (Merkley), North Carolina (Hagan), and Minnesota (Franken). Al Franken owes the next six years to Barack Obama’s coattails. Jim Martin shocks the world by virtually tying Saxby Chambliss in Georgia, but fails to clear 50% and gets wiped out in the runoff. Martin re-emerges in a few years as Georgia’s newly minted governor after years of Republican excess and corruption in the capitol.


 
My hopes (4.00 / 1)
1a – Franken

1b – Dole –  everyone else is saying McConnell, but the only think Lunsford has to offer is a D after his name.   His positions on most issues suck.  

2.  That Lieberman remains in the Democratic caucus (regardless of the outcome).  

3.  We get 8.    NH, VA, NM, CO, AK, NC, OR and MN.      


 
My Call (4.00 / 2)
1) What’s your biggest hope for

(a) Electing someone to the Senate?  And why, of course, if you still have the strength to put that into words.

Mark Udall

(b) Getting rid of someone in the Senate?  And, of course, why.

Saxby Chambliss

(2) What’s your biggest fear of what we might not accomplish?   Neither Bruce Lunford or Jim Martin

(3) What’s your forecast of how well we’ll do? (And, don’t forget to double up by voting in the poll as well.)

Hold all Current Seats
Pickups – VA, CO, NM, NH, AK, NC, OR, MN

Jim Martin will get more votes than Chambliss, but not get 50% and then Martin loses the run-off.

January make-up:
Dems – 56
Rep – 42
Ind – 2


 
Franken and Kleeb (4.00 / 2)
I really like Al Franken: smart, funny, progressive. His radio show was so much better than any of the replacements. His production values were dopey, and always entertaining, but most of all his content was always excellent. He’s smart. Not devastatingly smart like John Stewart, but honest.

Scott Kleeb in Nebraska. First because it would be so sweet. Second because he’s an agricultural economist. I’m hoping he got his name recognition up in the Easter half, which is where he should run better anyway.


 
MY Senate Hope, Fears, Forecast. (4.00 / 1)
MY biggest Hope for electing someone is Al Franken(MN)-This one is for you Paul.
My biggest Hope for Getting rid of Someone – Saxby Chambliss-. The George Allen of 2008. and Mitch McConnell. We get a new Senate Republican Leader.
My biggest Fear is we may not win Trent Lotts old Senate Seat.

We pick up 8 Seats in 08.

1)Mark Warner(VA)- He is going to be on the Sunday Talk Show Circuits- Future Chair of the DSCC.
2)Tom Udall(NM)-
3)Mark Udall(CO)-
4)Mark Begich(AK)-
5)Jeanne Shaheen(NH)
6)Kay Hagan(NC)
7)Jeff Merkley(OR)
8)Al Franken(MN)


 
The Millionaires Club. (4.00 / 1)
1a) It’s all about Franken.  This was easily the dirtiest senate race in the country.  And that’s saying something when considering other nasty races in North Carolina and Kentucky.  I really want this one.  Franken’s greatness is simply self-evident.

1b) It would be great to get rid of McConnell, but that’s not going to happen.  So next in line is Chambliss.  He’s a despicable Republican hard-liner and he has got to go.  He doesn’t really like it when black people vote.

2a) I’m really not afraid of anything going wrong in the senate.  I’d be super annoyed if people like Musgrove and Lunsford won instead of say, Franken and Merkley.  But right now it seems that right-wing Democrats are unelectable.  Harold Ford began this trend.

3).  I’ll say we pick up 9 seats.  I am least confident about Georgia’s race of course.  I think Lieberman has already proven himself irrelevant.  Just winning a huge number of seats will make Lieberman more irrelevant.

John McCain lets lobbyists shape his economic policy


 
My picks (4.00 / 1)
1a. Al Franken, because I want to win this seat back for Paul. Franken would also be a strong progressive leader, not a complacent politician. This race has been so close and volatile; it would be absolutely heartbreaking to lose. Merkley is also very promising; luckily for us, he seems pretty safe.

1b. Susan Collins, because a state as blue as Maine should not have 2 Republican senators. Moreover, Tom Allen (unlike Collins) would be at least as liberal as his constituents.

2. I’m scared that a lot of these new senators will hamper our progressive agenda, and we’ll be stuck with them for the next 6 years. I fear that they’ll vote against bold legislation (which will cost money) all in the name of “representing their constituents.” I fear, for instance, the thought of Shaheen voting no on economic packages because New Hampshire hates the taxes that might pay for them.      

3. I’m optimistic beyond all reason. I’m shooting for at least 10 seats.


 
Not that I'm unique, here, but… (0.00 / 0)
(1a) Al Franken!  I’m hoping Limbaugh, Coulter, O’Lielly, Hannity, or some combination thereof die of apoplexy when his victory is announced.

(1b) Chambliss — vengeance for the way he slimed his way into office in 2002.

(2) That we get to 60-including-Liebershit, and the leadership sucks up to him even harder than they did the last two years.  And yes, I know that fulfilling both my hopes is the most likely path to my fear, but I prefer to think of that as the silver lining — if we lose MN or GA, at least we’ll have an easier time flushing Liebershit.  Alternately, I’m hoping Obama will find a job for him outside the Senate that he wouldn’t refuse — Ambassador to Israel springs to mind.

“A fantasy is not even a wish, much less an act.  There is no such thing as a culpable or shameful fantasy.”  —–Lady Sally McGee


 
Oops, forgot (3)… (0.00 / 0)
I think we pick up eight seats, winning the seven where we’re clearly ahead plus Minnesota due to Coleman’s new scandal, but losing Georgia in the runoff after winning a plurality tomorrow due to higher black turnout than the pollsters project and the Libertarian diverting some Republican votes from Chambliss.

“A fantasy is not even a wish, much less an act.  There is no such thing as a culpable or shameful fantasy.”  —–Lady Sally McGee

[ Parent ]  
Al Franken!! (0.00 / 0)
I live in MN 6th Congressional District, so have so many hopes riding on this election!!  
Al Franken is such a good man.  I have seen people, even on MSNBC, who still consider his candidacy a joke.  This man has spent months traveling all over Minnesota talking person to person to learn what Minnesotans need and to persuade people he is the candidate for the middle-class, for the farmers, for the union workers, etc.  When I met him he had just spoken in front of a less than receptive audience and I told him how important it was for us to have someone like him in the Senate supporting MN and laughing at the Republicans.  His eyes teared up and he gave me a big hug.  Al Franken is a real person, and someone I know can trust. He not only would add that additional vote to the Dem side, and a good satirist to laugh at the Republicans in the senate, but I know he would also be able to continue Paul Wellstone’s legacy.
I will be so proud tomorrow to cast my vote for Al Franken!  (and El Tinklenberg!!)  Goodbye Norm Coleman, Goodbye Michele Bachmann!  And if this isn’t taken care of, I will be so disappointed and miserable, even with an Obama win.

 
What if Stevens Won His Race? (0.00 / 0)
1b.  I agree with most everyone else.  I’ve been pulling for Al Franken since I was in high school, which was 25 years ago now.  He spoke out against Limbaugh and the other nutters on Fox when few high-profile people would.  His books are great.  He just has to win.  

1a.  James Inhofe.  This is unlikely, but if I had my choice, Inhofe, the global-warming denier, would be the first to go.

2.  I know this is highly unlikely, but what if Stevens actually won Alaska?  That’s my biggest fear.  That after conviction, a corrupt, meat red pol. could still win an election in a meat red state like Alaska.

3.  A pick up of nine, which includes Minnesota and Georgia after a special run-off election.  


 
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