The 2010 Senate picture continues to get wilder this morning. Three updates:
Connecticut; Rob Simmons has dropped out of the Republican primary, leaving WWE magnnate Linda McMahon to face Richard Blumenthal. Yesterday, Blumenthal apologized for exaggerating his military record. He still has a lead in the polls, but nowhere near the commanding, 30-point leads he once held.
South Carolina: The first trial heat poll out of South Carolina shows Republican incumbent and conservative movement icon Jim DeMint leading Democrat Vic Rawl by only 50%-43%. The only other poll on this campaign had been a generic ballot test from early December, showing DeMint up by 9%, with a lot of voters thinking DeMint spent too much time endorsing conservative candidates nationwide rather than paying attention in South Carolina. So, the poll is believable, and DeMint likely is in some trouble (until Rasmussen shows him up by 27% next week).
This campaign goes up on the competitive seats chart. The current winning percentage for Rawl sstarts at 3%. That figure is if the election were held today, and is not a projection on the future trends of the campaign.
California: In a hard to believe poll, Survey USA shows Carly Fiorina ahead by 23% in the Republican primary in California (and Meg Whitman back ahead by 27% for Governor). This poll isn't like any of the others on the campaign so far, but combined with the others it actually gives Fiorina a 1.3% lead in the primary.. If Fiorina does win the Republican nomination,that is good news for Barbara Boxer. While Boxer only leads Tom Campbell by 4.7% (92% current win %), she leads Fiorina by 8.3% (98% current win %).
All told, these updates improve the Democratic position in the overall forecast by 0.09 seats, for a new total of 52.17 seats. This is another high, post-Evan Bayh's retirement, for Democrats in the Senate forecast.
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