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Give voters in both parties some credit: they feel like they are being treated badly by politicians, and they are pushing back hard. The results in November probably won't be good for Democrats, because Democrats are running things and people tend to vote their pocketbook, but this anti-establishment thing can have some very good effects in it for progressives, too. Yesterday's results were for the most part an example of that.
On the Democratic side of things, there was only one big disappointment for progressives yesterday, and that was Steve Lynch winning his primary against Mac D'Alesandro. Lynch is a pro-war, anti-health care reform, anti-choice Democrat who was running against a strong progressive SEIU organizer. Mac got in late, was dramatically underfunded, and the old machine is still strong in Democratic politics in Boston, so this one was always a long shot, but it would have been great to have won that race. The good news, though, is very, very good:
- In the NH seat left open by Paul Hodes running for Senate, strong progressive Ann Kuster shocked the Democratic establishment by beating Joe Lieberman's Presidential campaign co-chair Katrina Swett. Swett is part of one of NH's most powerful Democratic establishment families, and Kuster's win shocked a lot of people. Backed by MoveOn, DFA, PCCC and Blue America, along with many other progressive bloggers and NH's progressive activist community, if she can win her race she will be another strong voice for progressive values in Congress.
- Carolyn Maloney utterly crushed the candidate of, by, and for Wall Street, winning her race 81-19 in an anti-incumbent year. Carolyn was a true champion on the credit card regulation bill last year and the financial reform fight this time around, and the big dogs on Wall Street decided they didn't like having such an independent-minded reformer in their back yard, so they recruited Reshma Saujani, a hedge fund lawyer known and trusted by the Street, to take Carolyn on. I guess the message about Carolyn beating up on Wall St too much didn't play so well, even in Wall Street's backyard.
- Eric Schneiderman narrowly beat the more establishment (and conservative) Democrat, and former Republican, Kathleen Rice in the NY Attorney General race. This is one of the most important elected positions in the country, as the AG has a great deal of power over who and how to prosecute on Wall Street. If he wins the general election, he will be an aggressive prosecutor of the financial malfeasance perpetrated on us by the biggest banks.
As for the rest of the good news for Democrats, let me turn to the Republican side. Again, give voters some credit: Republican primary electorates have come to be dominated by angry voters just as mad at their own establishment as they are at Democrats, and they are letting their inner dogs howl. As a result, we now have a Delaware Senate seat that has gone from being very uphill for the Democrats to very unlikely for the Republicans in the blink of an eye. And in NH, where the conventional wisdom had AG Kelly Ayotte sweeping to a primary victory and then easily fending off Hodes, the primary there has left a complicated, likely recount election that might not be settled for weeks to come- and whoever comes out of that mess will be damaged and financially depleted.
Given how bad the political climate is, starting out the year, the establishment pols on both sides had assumed DE, NH, NV, CO, KY, and AK would all probably be in the Republican column on election day in November. As of today, Democrats have even or better odds in all those states. Even in FL, where the odds are still against Kendrick Meek, a Republican civil war has given us a chance where we had none. The tide is still against us, but some Republican ships are crashing against the shore, and as a result, Democrats are still alive. As I said last week, this idea of a narrative about Republican extremism is building strength fast, and may be giving us a key to beating them. What we have to remember, though, is that Republican primary voters are not the only ones feeling anti-establishment. Democrats had better seize the populist moment, expose the opposition's insanity but also paint themselves as progressive outsiders determined to clean up corruption in Washington, and fight for the other 98% of us who aren't Wall Street bankers and insurance company execs.
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