Messaging & the future: Progressive polling post-mortem from Stan Greenberg & Robert Borosage pt 2.

by: Paul Rosenberg

Mon Nov 08, 2010 at 09:00


This Friday morning I participated in a briefing with pollster Stan Greenberg and Campaign for America's Future co-director Robert Borosage, based on an election post-mortem poll done by Greenberg's firm, Greenberg Quinlin Rosner, which Greenberg has been doing every election since 1996.  I wrote about this earlier in my diary, "Progressive polling post-mortem from Stan Greenberg & Robert Borosage".  Now I want to take a narrower look, specifically at questions that deal with how people see the state of the country and the challenges ahead, and how well the Democrats could have or did reach them.

The first slide shows strong support for three narratives, about the country being in decline, "while countries like China have a vision to succeed," about "entrenched special interests that finance both parties' campaigns," and about politicians "pursuing their own party's agenda - ignoring the needs of regular citizens and the country."  The first narrative is relatively rare as a message in the elite media, and is generally bad for conservatives, the second two are increasingly more common, and tend mask a fairly significant asymmetry between the two parties.


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The second slide shows only slightly lower levels of support for three more narratives: that middle class families played by the rules, and got screwed, while Wall Street, big banks & CEOs destroyed the economy and got bailed, that America's prosperity was built on a growing middle class that's now in decline, while the government serves CEOs instead, and that "Politicians have spent the country into bankruptcy."  The first two narratives are relatively rare in elite media, and damaging to conservative ideology, while the third is fairly omnipresent in elite media, and quite useful for conservative elites, even though they are responsible for the vast majority of the debt:


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Collectively, these views represent a fairly substantial net potential advantage for liberals and Democrats, if they chose to mobilize and message based upon four of these six narratives. Inaction, however, allows two of them to be used against liberals and Democrats (post-partisanship & the debt), even if conservatives & Republicans are actually the ones responsible for the problems identified.

Paul Rosenberg :: Messaging & the future: Progressive polling post-mortem from Stan Greenberg & Robert Borosage pt 2.

Polling on three potential Democratic messages showed how those pre-existing narratives might well be tapped into by two powerful messages that Democrats might have used--Democrats are committed to a "Made In America" policy path, as opposed to Republican "free trade" and outsourcing, anhd Democrats are pledged to change Washington to benefit the midddle class, while Republicans are committed to protect those special interests--in sharp contrast the message that Democrats did use--Democrats want to move forward, while Republicans want to take us back.  Here's the dramatic difference in how people responded to these messages:


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Here's how the "Made in America" message played across different demographic groups, particularly the white working class. These are all groups identified as "swing" voters (though Chris has long ago debunked the notion that only groups splitting more-or-less evenly are statistically "swing"):


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And here's how the "Middle Class" message played across different demographic groups, again, particularly the white working class:


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Compared to the messages Democrats actually used:


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You can see that everyone except Republicans had nearly identical perceptions about the decline of the middle class (59%-62% saying "not rising), but even Republicans were more likely to see things like this than not:


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And finally--perhaps most significantly and surprisingly--you can see that despite heavy messaging calling for reduced spending and virtually no messaging for infrastructure investment, and a significantly more conservative electorate, there was virtually no change from 2008 to 2010 in the balance between these two competing outlooks:


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There could not possibly be a more stark Demonstration of how consistently the Democrats have turned their backs on a sure winning political vision and strategy--one that brought them political dominance in the past for a period of roughly four decades.  Such long-term dominance is right there at their fingertips once again, if only they chose to reach out and take hold of it.

Here's the last slide from my first diary, just to drive that point home one last time, the 80% support for a "rebuild America" Agenda:


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And yet, instead of focusing on this message like a laser, what is President Obama doing immediately after the election?  Going on a "trade mission" to India.  I have nothing against India.  But if anyone thinks that India's recent development boom is a good thing, you haven't been keeping up with Arundhati Roy.  We have long past the point where anyone can empirically argue that economic development and equity or democratic values go together.  This is no more true in India than it is America. But the neo-liberals currently dominating the Democratic Party elite remain as impervious to reality in their own way as all the various factions in GOP remain in theirs.


p.s.  I wrote this Friday, but tweaked it slightly over the weekend after it got squeezed out of the lineup.  On Saturday, Dante Atkins wrote a short front-page DKos diary, "Republicans win office, kill jobs immediately".  The jobs killed--in the Midwest--were:

(1)

Governor-Elect Kasich in Ohio has killed the federally-funded passenger rail project that would have connected Cincinnati, Columbus and Cleveland.

(2)

Meanwhile, in Wisconsin, 300 people working on the high-speed rail project that would connect Madison and Milwaukee have been let go owing to the election of Republican Scott Walker, who has vowed to kill the $810 million federally funded project....

Any question at all that we could totally demolish these putzes with a "Build America" agenda?

Coming Tomorrow: Part 3, the last in this series.


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Dunno whether to be inspired or outraged (0.00 / 0)
Are the Democrats stupid, or is this who they are?

I fear it's the latter.  The implications are different depending on which.

For the wheel's still in spin And there's no tellin' who That it's namin'. -- Dylan


Short Answer (4.00 / 1)
There's a deep split between the neo-liberal wing and the traditional base of the party.  Taking aim at an individual politician, such as Obama, actually adds to the confusion this split generates.  We need to be working on ways to clarify and sharpen it.

"You know what they say -- those of us who fail history... doomed to repeat it in summer school." -- Buffy The Vampire Slayer, Season 6, Episode 3

[ Parent ]
Let me guess (0.00 / 0)
Re the neo-liberal wing, this is who they are?  Then hammer them.

And the traditional base?  They are stupid?  Then educate them.  With a hammer.

What I'm trying to get at through my crude binary approach is how you would "clarify and sharpen it," since I wasn't actually trying to bring up Dump Obama even in a sneaky way.

You've mentioned that some of us pay insufficient attention to your methodological pieces.  The reason for me is that I find them abstract.  Sometimes extremely insightful, but short on practical implications.

For the wheel's still in spin And there's no tellin' who That it's namin'. -- Dylan


[ Parent ]
Because I'm NOT Trying To Dictate To People (0.00 / 0)
It's pretty funny.  I spend most of my energy trying to describe what I see as the forces in play and options that exist or could be created.  That comes out of not thinking I have all the answers.

But it does mean that some sorts of actions are doomed to fail, if not backfire, and some sorts of analysis are simply too narrow, shorsighted, etc.

This is how science tends to proceed:  The good ideas get tentative, "not disproven yet" stickers. The bad ones get, "forget it" stickers.  Then, because I hand out some "forget it" stickers, you attack me for being narrow-minded, dogmatic, an apologist, etc., etc., etc.

None of which is true.  I just don't want to waste time and energy (mine or other people's) in efforts I can easily foresee coming to naught. Or worse.

"You know what they say -- those of us who fail history... doomed to repeat it in summer school." -- Buffy The Vampire Slayer, Season 6, Episode 3


[ Parent ]
Don't worry ... (0.00 / 0)
... you couldn't dictate to people even if you wanted to.

I'm asking you for SUGGESTIONS based on what you've just put forward.  You say "options that exist" but don't specify what options.  I'm not attacking you for anything.  If I were debating Dump Obama right now, jeffroby666's general lack of subtlety would surely shine through.

Are you reacting to my use of the word "hammer"?  Then substitute "engage in power politics" instead.  

For the wheel's still in spin And there's no tellin' who That it's namin'. -- Dylan


[ Parent ]
To clarify and sharpen the split (0.00 / 0)
You need to draw a line between the the different wings of the party and place individual politicians on either side.  You need to use symbols (including humans as symbols) rather than the usual attempt to focus on substantive issues that never seems to work.

Here's the question.  If you can "clarify and sharpen" the divide, is there any benefit to defining Obama's place on either side?  If a Dump Obama campaign weakens Obama and puts a crazy conservative in the White House, does trying to force Obama into an intra-party scuffle instead of allowing him the option of appearing aloof and above the fray do the same thing?  Should we omit Obama when looking to define neoliberalism by offering up sample politicians who can serve as Emmanuel Goldstein-like foci for ire?  Is there a risk that traditional liberal vs neo-liberal will be defined as Obama vs someone like Evan Bayh?

Things You Don't Talk About in Polite Company: Religion, Politics, the Occasional Intersection of Both


[ Parent ]
First Things First (0.00 / 0)
I think that clarifying the split has to come before all the things you're talking about.  It's sort of cart-before-the-horse kind of situation from where I stand.

"You know what they say -- those of us who fail history... doomed to repeat it in summer school." -- Buffy The Vampire Slayer, Season 6, Episode 3

[ Parent ]
I think it really requires putting a face to the ideology (0.00 / 0)
You need to be able to identify a neo-liberal touchstone which allows you to say "this is what a neo-liberal looks like."

Are we talking about clarifying the divide for the benefit of the electorate (as I am assuming) or are you considering neo-liberalism to be something still a bit nebulous so that someone like you still needs to define it so you can understand it?

Are we at a point where we shouldn't be sure yet who should go on the list of the top ten most neo-liberal neo-liberals in Congress?

What I think I am saying is that, in presenting the case against neo-liberalism to the people, it's better to follow the order:

1) Neo-liberalism is bad
2) These are some prominent neo-liberals who are bad
3) This is why they are bad

rather than

1) Neo-liberalism is bad
2) This is why neo-liberalism is bad
3) Here are some examples of neo-liberals

That may be totally unrelated to the point you are making.

Things You Don't Talk About in Polite Company: Religion, Politics, the Occasional Intersection of Both


[ Parent ]
Not Sure Why 2 & 3 Should Be Separate (4.00 / 2)
They can be, of course.  But I think there may well be good sense in multiple ways of approaching this.

But, really, my focus in this diary wasn't on such negative messanging at all.  It was on positive messaging: Rebuild America.  Even most neo-liberals who aren't hard-core ideologues would go along with that.

"You know what they say -- those of us who fail history... doomed to repeat it in summer school." -- Buffy The Vampire Slayer, Season 6, Episode 3


[ Parent ]




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