Historically speaking, most progressive governance in America seems to happen in short, dense windows that interrupt long runs of either conservative or status quo governance. For example, there was a narrow window in the 1860’s when the southern-less Congress passed a series of amendments that banned slavery and increased civil rights. The early twentieth century, FDR’s first two terms, and the pre-Vietnam Johnson administration were also relatively quick stretches of time that, collectively, account for the majority of the progressive aspects of our government.
All of these time periods seem to follow the same pattern: a thunderous electoral victory is followed by a short time period where a lot of progressive legislation is passed. Jointly, by being the wishes of the majority of the country and by improving the quality of life for the majority of the population, the electoral victory and the legislation cement a policy realignment that is virtually impossible even for an extended period of conservative government to undo.
With this in mind, today, I once again find myself looking at the Democrats vs. McCain map, which takes the best Democratic polling average in each state against McCain, whether Obama or Clinton, and combines it into a single map.
Democrats are set to follow-up our smashing 2006 electoral victories in the House, Senate and state level with a second landslide in 2008. The above electoral map is the key toward a thunderous electoral victory that would present us with a two to eight year window of potential progressive governance. That victory, combined with positive legislation that actually improves the quality of life for most Americans, would solidify a progressive governing realignment that would look kind of like this:
The key to pulling this off is two-fold. First, we need to actually achieve the thundering electoral victory. In my mind, Paul has convincingly argued that an Obama-Edwards ticket is the best means of accomplishing this goal. The second step is to avoid a “failed window,” which Matthew Yglesias argues the 1977-1980 and 1993-1994 Democratic trifectas represent. There is always the prospect that, even if we achieve the dominant electoral trifecta, the opportunity is squandered and the legislation necessary to improve the quality of life in America is not passed into law. Moments like these lead to backlash realignments, as we experienced in both the 1980 and 1994 elections. A failure during the progressive window blows an opportunity for an entire generation of progressives.
All of this general historical perspective leads to a timely conclusion: the opportunity we have in 2008 to pull off the big electoral victory, and then in 2009-2010 to pass legislation, is a rare chance for progressives that only seems to come along once in a generation, or every fifteen to twenty years. A progressive legislation window is within our grasp, and we won’t have the opportunity again for a long time. From my point of view, all of this makes the continued pitched battles between Clinton and Obama supporters, in the form of seemingly endless stereotypes and flame wars, really, really stupid. The opportunity we have here is so much bigger, and can potentially last so much longer, than any one person. Much of the problem comes from the campaigns themselves. In addition to the continued negative campaigning against each other, these campaigns, like any candidate-focused campaign, are institutionally designed not for the long-term realignments, but rather for short-term victories based around something resembling a cult of personality.
We can’t get to the smashing electoral victory, the sort of victory that is a precondition for a progressive legislation window, without all of the voters that both Clinton and Obama bring to the table. The sooner we realize that, and the sooner we realize the enormity of the opportunity that we have this year, the better off the party, the movement, and the country will all be.
