Approaching Peak "I Told You So's"

by: Chris Bowers

Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 16:18


From how bad Republicans would actually be if they got the trifecta, to the Iraq war turning into a bloody, expensive, long-term occupation, to global warming, to Lieberman, the rate of progressive “I told you so’s” is increasing rapidly. Heck, we now seem to be approaching peak “I told you so’s”:

Oil’s 2-day surge tops record
Futures skyrocket $11 on a sliding dollar, geopolitics and a Morgan Stanley report predicting $150-a-barrel oil.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) — Oil prices surged for the second straight day, cresting a previous trading high, on a dollar decline that stemmed from a weak jobs report, geopolitical tensions and a forecast of $150-a-barrel oil.

At 1:20 p.m. ET, the July light crude contract was up $8.81 to $136.60 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, surpassing the $135.09-a-barrel trading record set May 22.(…)

The euro rallied to $1.5659 from $1.5593 late Thursday, after the Labor Department reported that the unemployment rate rose to 5.5% in May from 5% in April, the biggest monthly jump in more than two decades. The economy lost 49,000 jobs in May, marking the fifth straight month of job losses.(…)

When the greenback softens, the price of crude oil increases, prompting investors to look to commodities as a hedge against inflation.

In addition, crude oil is traded globally in U.S. dollars. The less valuable the dollar, the more expensive crude oil becomes.

While I kind of enjoy all of these “I told you so’s” coming our way, the United States is probably facing a perfect storm where a dramatically devalued dollar, dramatically increased oil prices, and an expensive, dead-end war in Iraq is going to severely reduce our national standard of living for an extended period of time. And that will impact all of us, even progressives. “I told you so” will be small comfort when our national wealth is dramatically reduced. The progressive window might be the only way out. Even then, we might not go far enough to make the changes that are necessary.  

Chris Bowers :: Approaching Peak “I Told You So’s”
');
Tags: , (All Tags)
Print Friendly View Send As Email
The perfect storm (4.00 / 2)
When I think about all the things we have to do while confronting peak oil a slowing economy and a massive budget deficit, I always come back to the same thing. The only way we pay for it is either really high taxes on the rich (and probably everyone else) or serious cuts in our painfully wasteful military spending.

10% of our military budged would pay for an awful lot of stuff we have to do.

I support John McCain because children are too healthy anyway.


 
Really high taxes on the rich (0.00 / 0)
Let’s go back to what they were in the Eisenhower years.

[ Parent ]  
There is good news (4.00 / 3)
We’re not befuddled.  We know what to do.  

Anyone know much about the Great Depression?  In 1930 and 1931, business, government and intellectual elites were seriously questioning whether or not the Western way of life and economic activity was even viable anymore.  There was open talk of fascism in this country.  Roosevelt got elected on vague principles, and nobody, not even Roosevelt, was sure what to do, so they tried all kinds of stuff.  Eventually we figured it out but it was touch and go for a bunch of years.

The problems we face are, in my view, greater in scope but at least we know what to do.  We know how to transfer away from an oil based economy.  We have the technology.

We know how the economy should be organized.  We largely know what incentives and regulations need to be in place.

We know how to get every American quality healthcare.  

We know how to build infrastructure.

We know how to walk out of Iraq.  And we know how to prevent future foreign policy disasters and be a powerful, but good, member of an increasingly multipolar international community.

I take comfort in knowing that we have the answers.  Our challenge is not figuring out what to do but building a real power base to make it happen.  

I’m trying to keep this in perspective.  But it’s still scary.  At least I have a good job for now.  


 
I really don't enjoy the "told you so" (4.00 / 4)
for the reasons you close with.  I have Republican friends, and periodically they suggest that I must be feeling pretty smug about how conservative government and Iraq turned out.  I don’t, I feel sick to my stomach and wish I’d been proven wrong.

What happened is affecting a lot of people.  In addition, those who advocated these destructive policies are almost universally not in the military and very well-off.  Thus, the endless grind of the Iraq occupation on our military and high gas prices don’t really affect them.  

John McCain: Healthcare for kids?  In America?  No way.  


 
Herbert Hoover Redux (0.00 / 0)
“You know what they say — those of us who fail history… doomed to repeat it in summer school.”
    –Buffy, in “After Life,” Buffy The Vampire Slayer, Season 6, Episode 3


“Senate passes expanded GI bill despite Bush, McCain opposition”

 
I have a relative .. (0.00 / 0)
a labor union type Dem .. who thirty years ago .. was saying that we might end up having another revolution in this country .. given the way corporations run this country .. we might be closer to that point then one would imagine .. Bush & the Rethuglicans are partially responsible for all three things Chris mentioned .. the dollar is devalued .. because the Fed is printing money like its nobody’s business .. which is partially due to Bush’s out of control spending(on the war among things) .. which part of the reason oil is so high .. is the devalued dollar(because that is what oil is still priced in) .. and global turmoil

John McCain: Bush right to veto kids health insurance expansion

 
Motivation (0.00 / 0)
What’s interesting is that I think this provides the motivation for a series of dramatic policy changes that actually would make America a better, fairer and more satisfying country.  A dramatic drop in national wealth has the potential to reshape socially-accepted norms and values, creating a society that becomes much less focused on “stuff” and much more focused on a smaller, simpler, more sustainable and more self-sufficient society that sees people existing on less monetary wealth but being dramatically happier.

We would have to recreate our social infrastructure, move away from individual cars and toward public transportation, remake our energy infrastructure, and change what we thought was important.  We would start to shift toward smaller living spaces, but we would enjoy doing it.  Cities and towns would become more centralized and would create a greater concentration of residential and commercial.  We would create a new middle class revolving and around sustainable energy and food production.

A second layer of artisan production would arise and revolve around a revitalized, small-scale food growing and raising industry.  This would ultimately lead away from industrialized food and would see immediate and appreciable gains in living standards through a dramatic improvement in public health–the problems of which are largely based in our industrial food system.  This would also allow us to create a national health care system that was sustainable, even on our reduced national wealth.

People would walk, and bike, and drive much less, and they would spend more time interacting with family and friends and would spend less time working.  We would reverse the increases in hours worked per week and would increase wage.  The food, energy and artisan-production industries we built at home would create millions of new jobs that would never be outsourced to other countries.

The impetus for all this change can come out of the coming hard times we aren’t going to be able to avoid.  What’s cool about all of this is that the solutions are exciting and, well, kind of fun–the new society that we could build to address these problems would, frankly, be a hell of a lot better for pretty much everyone living in this country.

Unfortunately, I’m not sure if the case for these changes are going to be made successfully and will be able to overcome the huge amount of destructive and defeating pushback they’ll see–so I’m skeptical that the change we need will happen.  The logic behind it is there, though.  It’s just a matter if whether a majority of the country can be convinced of that logic in the face of a widespread, well-financed, systematic, fear-based disinformation campaign against the logic of these changes.

John McCain says overturn the law that legalized abortion  


 
That's really well put (0.00 / 0)
But look at the monstrosity of the farm bill. When prices are rising and transportation costs are rising and poor nutrition is a growing problem, instead of funding local foods and fruits and vegetables, we spend money on ethanol and even more subsidies for corn.

Those changes have to be made. There’s no doubt that we could make a more equitable society with a vastly higher standard of living with a lower GDP than we have now (especially if cut military spending!). Hell, Sweden does it, though not necessary in a model I think we can or should replicate.

I’m just not optimistic that we can do it. The obstacles to change in this country are serious.

I support John McCain because children are too healthy anyway.


[ Parent ]  
Huge Obstacles (4.00 / 1)
I agree that there are huge obstacles.  I’m not overly optimistic myself.  And yet, I do have some optimism.

Maybe I’m seeing too much in small changes, but I think the alterations in behavior when it comes to commuting activity under $3 and $4 gas shows that people will change, and they’ll do it pretty quickly under the right circumstances.

What gives me optimism is two beliefs: Americans are good at changing under the right circumstances and our economic system favors these changes.  I’ll leave the first belief alone, as I’m not too interested in trying to outright prove it at the moment.  Instead, I’ll look at the economic reality.

I live in Portland, Oregon.  Portland, in many ways, gets it.  This alone could be the reason that I’m optimistic (and perhaps unrealistically so.)  Around here, we have the good fortune, through 70s-era land use laws, to have an urban environment that is small and largely concentrated and to have an incredibly strong public transportation system serving that area.  We ALSO have the good fortune of being surrounded by rich, farmable land.

As a result, farmer’s markets are thriving here, much as they are in other parts of the country.  However, the notion of a local, sustainable food infrastructure is also thriving here.  Hell, it’s not just the farmer’s market, but we also have a grocery chain here–New Seasons–which essentially goes a step or two beyond even Whole Foods.  It’s not just a focus on organic and sustainable products, but it’s a focus on LOCAL food, local providers.  It’s not perfect by any means–it’s not a complete institutionalization of farmer’s markets, but it’s a good start.  It gives hints to the ways we can go.

But getting back to the economic pressures–there’s huge demand around here for local, sustainable food and that demand is largely being met.  We see more farms around here going organic, more small farmer’s getting in the game, new farmer’s markets popping up in an already-rich market and an insatiable demand even for community supported agriculture–which starts to get to the ultimate model that we need to start moving toward.  It’s happening with some assists from local government, but mostly through good-old economic pressures.

Which means if we can create the demand throughout the country–and demand is already being created at an incredible pace–then the economic pressures can kick in.  So, in reality, we don’t even have to necessarily create full on policy change, we just need to create economic demand.  At that point, a free market can start to supply that demand and those suppliers can help us progressives push for more policy changes to remove government-sanctioned barriers that favor the industrial and agribusiness concerns.

And look at the sales of books like Omnivore’s Dilemma and the huge growth of farmer’s markets across the country.  The movement is already underway and it’s not going anywhere, even with the atrocious farm bill.

What also needs to be realized is that the organizing around the farm bill

John McCain says overturn the law that legalized abortion  


[ Parent ]  
Oops (4.00 / 1)
Here’s the rest of the above comment:

What also needs to be realized is that the progressive and grassroots organizing around the farm bill has only begun.  The last fight was the infant stage.  The next fight will have better organizing around it and it will face a more friendly atmosphere for change.  The next farm bill won’t be perfect, either, but it will be a hell of a lot better.

Unfortunately, we need the change now.  That won’t happen.  And that’s why we’re going to face some rough times.  But I have a lot of faith that the change is on its way and that the rough times will create even more demand for that change.  There will be a whole lot of forces aligned against the change, yes, but I think it breaks through in the end.

I hope so, anyway.

John McCain says overturn the law that legalized abortion  


[ Parent ]  
Donate to Open Left
ELECTION 2008 Presidential Forecast
Senate Forecast
PREMIUM AD

ADVERTISEMENTS

');

MENU

OpenLeft in your inbox!

 

Or, subscribe to each author individually.

OPTIMIZE MCCAIN About
Tips
McCain
John McCain
SEARCH

   

Advanced Search

OPENLEFT VIDEO WALL
Donna Edwards Thanks OpenLeft


Russ Feingold on the New FISA Legislation


Jon Conyers on Impeachment


Al Franken Thanks Blue Majority


FCC Commissioner Michael Copps on Pearl Jam, Net Neutrality


Darcy Burner on the FISA Legislation

More OpenLeft video…