Open Left Senate Forecast, July 15th

by: Chris Bowers

Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 09:31


Current Projection: Democratic Pickup of 5-6 seats

Republican Held: Democratic Pickups 6
State Type Democratic Republican Dem Cash Margin Polls
Lock D Pickups: 2
Virginia Open Warner Gilmore 1952% D +25.7 3
New Mexico Open T. Udall Pearce 1159% D +22.8 4
Likely D Pickups: 2
Colorado Open M. Udall Schaffer 196% D +9.2 4
New Hampshire Freshman Shaheen Sununu 43% D +11.4 5
Toss-up Pickups: 1
Alaska Incumbent Begich Stevens 20% D +3.0 4
Mississippi-B Special Musgrove Wickler 12% D +1.0 4
Lean R Pickups: 1
Kentucky Incumbent Lunsford McConnell 4% R +7.3 3
Minnesota Freshman Franken Coleman 50% R +6.8 4
Oregon Incumbent Merkley Smith 4% R +5.3 3
Likely R Pickups: 0
Idaho Open LaRocco Risch 27% R +15.0 3
Kansas Incumbent Slattery Roberts 10% R +14.0 5
Maine Incumbent Allen Collins 60% R +14.0 4
North Carolina Freshman Hagen Dole 10% R +12.7 3
Texas Freshman Noriega Cornyn 4% R +10.4 5

Republican Held, Uncompetitive Republican Locks (9): Alabama (Sessions), Georgia (Chambliss), Mississippi-A (Cochran), Nebraska (Open, Johanns), Oklahoma (Inhofe), South Carolina (Graham), Tennessee (Alexander), Wyoming-1 (Barrasso), Wyoming-2 (Enzi)

Democratic Held: Democratic Losses, 0-1
State Type Democrat Republican Dem Cash Margin Polls
Lean D Losses: 0-1
Louisiana Incumbent Landrieu Kennedy 281% D +5.0 3
Likely D Losses: 0
New Jersey Incumbent Lautenberg Zimmer 924% D +10.0 4

Democratic Held, Uncompetitive Democratic Locks (10): Arkansas (Pryor), Delaware (Biden), Illinois (Durbin), Iowa (Harkin), Massachusetts (Kerry), Michigan (Levin), Montana (Baucus), Rhode Island (Reed), South Dakota (Johnson), West Virginia (Rockerfeller)

*****

As with the Presidential forecast, in an attempt to make the Senate forecast less sensitive to each new poll, I have added in several more polls. In this forecast, it has the unfortunate side effect of including numerous internal polls from both sides. That might lead to error in the averages but, hey, if each campaign had positive poll numbers, then both campaigns would release them.

Analysis in the extended entry.
Chris Bowers :: Open Left Senate Forecast, July 15th
The picture is becoming pretty clear:
  1. Barring something shocking, Democrats will take four pickups in Colorado, New Hampshire, New Mexico and Virginia. Democrats +4
  2. The only actually vulnerable Democratic seat is in Louisiana. If Republicans want to sink a bunch of money chasing after their Jersey mirage once again, that is fine by me. Democrats +3-4
  3. Any of the campaigns where Democrats currently trail by double digits seem highly unlikely to flip. Democrats +3-4
  4. That leaves just five truly competitive Senate campaigns: Alaska, Kentucky, Minnestoa, Mississippi-B, and Oregon. All are Republican held, and Democrats have a real shot at each. None are from very large states. Democrats face a cash deficit in all five, but given how small the states are, it can easily be made up by the DSCC’s cash advantage. Democrats +3-9

It no longer appears that Democrats can win 60 seats without Lieberman. However, reaching 58 without Lieberman is realistic, and it should lead to a wave of decent legislation. Overall, however, Matt is right, and the drive toward 60 has always been overhyped in terms of importance.

Later in the week, I will have another Senate forecast update that will include all of the new cash on hand numbers.

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Open Left Senate Forecast, July 15th | 8 comments
I would still keep an eye on North Carolina, Kansas and particularly Maine (4.00 / 1)
And Noriega could still pull a ‘Mongiardo’ in Texas.
 
Over hyped in terms of "Need" — But as with the fifty state strategy (0.00 / 0)
…it is more than a goal.

FDR’s landslide elections were for his second term. But his frist term had the greatest amount of legislation. The second term was the strongest fight and he needed the New Deal Democrats elected in the second term to push through his agenda. Often with opposition from the supreme court.

A request from Obama for America to send Change candiates from the democratic party may be enough to send some over the top. I am intrigued by both Kentucky, which has had good numbers, and Kleeb in Kansas. Kleeb actually out fund raised his opponent this last cycle:

OMAHA, Neb. – Democratic Senate candidate Scott Kleeb seems to be finding fundraising traction in this heavily Republican state, bringing in nearly $700,000 in the latest reporting period and besting Republican Mike Johanns for the first time.
http://www.columbustelegram.com/articles/2008/07/15/ap-state-ne/d91tu4180.txt

This has to be encouraging to the money people in the DSCC. I urge them to consider this a real chance to turn Kansas Blue. He has made the grade as a real contender, now throw him support he needs.

Change
“We must break up the banks and never again let them get so big that they distort our politics and take down the economy.

 
I'm Boneheaded Kleeb Is in Nebraska, I wrote Kansas. (0.00 / 0)
[ Parent ]  
I'm still somewhat intriqued by Kleeb and Rice. (0.00 / 0)
Kleeb’s race seemed to be slipping away, but he just outraised Johanns for the quarter, so that at least gives some new hope. These races may still be “uncompetitive Republican locks”, but they’re less so than the others in the list.
 
Agreed on Andrew Rice (0.00 / 0)
I would like to see some polling because his fundraising has been excellent.
[ Parent ]  
Too early to write off any races (4.00 / 2)
This is potentially another wave election, with a very real presidential landslide possibility to boot.

The important metric isn’t so much polling right now, but is a combination the approval rating of the incumbent AND the general unhappiness of the electorate.

So, Susan Collins might look good right now, but is a Lincoln Chafee waiting to happen. Similarly, Saxby Chambliss in GA (if Jim Martin wins) and John Cornyn and Mitch McConnell are very vulnerable b/c their approval ratings are awful.

I still think we’ll get to more than sixty, and perhaps well beyond sixty — which IS very important for a number of reasons. I don’t think it’s overrated at all.  

 
Writing Off (4.00 / 1)
It is way too early to write off races.  I suggest something more positive:  Let’s focus on three or four lean-R or likely-R races and move them to toss-up.  

Frankly, I like our chances in Oregon, NC, and Maine, and others certainly have potential.  I agree with the comment above that Maine could turn out the way RI did in 2006, and Allen has the money to take the fight to Collins.  (I also do not trust the latest poll.)  In Oregon and NC, our candidates are just getting started after primaries and have just had great 2Q fundraising.  

 
sigh (0.00 / 0)
So many of those polls are sparse and stale. How do we learn anything useful from two polls from mid-June? I wish pollsters would spend a little less on national presidential polls and a little more on the Senate races.

The truth about Saxby Chambliss
 
Open Left Senate Forecast, July 15th | 8 comments
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