how old are the OR polls? (0.00 / 0)

Wasn’t Merkley ahead in the most recent one?

I think that race should be upgraded to tossup, especially since it doesn’t seem like Smith will get much top of the ticket help from McCain.

Disappointing that Coleman seems favored to hang in there. He doesn’t deserve to be reelected, and Obama seems comfortably ahead in MN.

Join the Iowa progressive community at Bleeding Heartland.

---

by: desmoinesdem @ Thu Jul 17, 2008 at 18:11:37 PM CDT

 

Don't count Franken out yet (4.00 / 2)

He has had a bad run, much of it self-inflicted but he can still win, especially since, as you pointed out, Obama is going to win big at the top of the ticket.

---

by: conspiracy @ Thu Jul 17, 2008 at 18:19:59 PM CDT

[ Parent ]  

I agree but for this reason (0.00 / 0)

http://www.openleft.com/viewQu…

I think Eric Schultz can help turn his campaign around.

I still think Noriega can pull this out in Texas.  DSCC needs to help him, considering he raised a bunch of money last Q.  

---

by: Benny @ Thu Jul 17, 2008 at 19:48:54 PM CDT

[ Parent ]  

can I just add how satisfying it is (0.00 / 0)

to see Iowa Republicans finally give up on ousting Harkin? He has had to fight hard in all his other campaigns.

Join the Iowa progressive community at Bleeding Heartland.

---

by: desmoinesdem @ Thu Jul 17, 2008 at 18:12:32 PM CDT

 

They also have given Tim Johnson-SD a free pass (0.00 / 0)

this year.
He narrowly defeated Larry Pressler in 1996 and John Thume in 2002- who narrowly unseated Tom Daschle in 2004.
They failed to get Governor Mike Rounds or Ex governor and Pedestrian’s worst nightmare Bill Janklow to challenge Johnson.
They have also failed to recruit a top tier candidate to challenge Lautenberg- Zimmer lost the 1996 NJ US Senate Race to the sleazy Bob Torricelli and lost to Rush Holt in Zimmer’s old US House.
They failed to recruit a GOP against Mark Pryor-AR.  

---

by: nkpolitics @ Thu Jul 17, 2008 at 19:11:20 PM CDT

[ Parent ]  

Heh… (0.00 / 0)

Wasn’t Zimmer the assclown who sang “Twinkle Twinkle Kenneth Star” off-key on the floor of the House?  And got laughed out of office for it when Holt challenged him?  (As an aside, I’d love to see Holt replace Lautenberg when the latter retires — the Senate could use more scientifically literate members.)

---

by: mantis @ Fri Jul 18, 2008 at 22:46:53 PM CDT

[ Parent ]  

Agree on NC (0.00 / 0)

It does seem that beating Dole would be easier than beating Big John Kyl, and NC would be a likelier flip.  Maybe D’s can win in NC-08 (Kissell) and even NC-10 (Johnson v. McHenry).  That would be a treat.  Skelly doesn’t need help with fundraising in TX-07, likely the only seat that might flip to D.

I think the Merkley race is going to be a tossup by your next chart.  Folks don’t seem to have been impressed by Smith’s ads touting his relationship with Obama.

Slattery is disappointing, as is Collins’ solidifying lead in ME.  There may be too many ticket splitters in ME for Allen to win.  And Coleman’s lead in MN.

John McCain–He’s not who you think he is.

---

by: Mimikatz @ Thu Jul 17, 2008 at 19:17:24 PM CDT

 

Allen's gotta go negative. (0.00 / 0)

‘Oh, no, negative doesn’t work in Maine!’

But I bet it would. A lot of those ticket splitters are voting Collins because, as one of her posters says, ‘she’s Maine’s senator.’

McCain is against children’s health insurance.

---

by: Joel @ Thu Jul 17, 2008 at 21:03:10 PM CDT

[ Parent ]  

Liddy Dole-(NC) is the female Lauch Faircloth/Jesse Helms. (0.00 / 0)

Collins(ME) is going to be in a similar situation as Lincoln Chaffee(RI). or Joe Lieberman(CT). She could lose due to a huge Democratic wave but win due to her so called moderate image.  

---

by: nkpolitics @ Thu Jul 17, 2008 at 21:56:33 PM CDT

[ Parent ]  

You're awfully hard on Slattery (0.00 / 0)

I think he’s got a lot more chance of beating Roberts than Lunsford does of beating McConnell.

Also, you need a new category for strong Dem candidates in obscenely Republican states.  Kleeb and Rice would go in that category.

ProgressiveHistorians: History For Our Future

---

by: Nonpartisan @ Thu Jul 17, 2008 at 21:55:00 PM CDT

 

dole is absolutely vulnerable… (0.00 / 0)

…nc is a huge military state, and a “what has bush/dole/mccain done to vets–and their families” campaign would leave her big-time vulnerable…and take advantage of the potential gender gap among military wives and female troops.

---

by: fake consultant @ Thu Jul 17, 2008 at 21:56:11 PM CDT

 

Not to mention .. (0.00 / 0)

Walter Jones voted for Impeachment the other day .. and his area includes Camp Lejune

John McCain: Bush right to veto kids health insurance expansion

---

by: Calvin Jones and the 13th Apostle @ Thu Jul 17, 2008 at 22:32:53 PM CDT

[ Parent ]  

jones is more complicated… (0.00 / 0)

…he was one of the very first antiwar rs, and that’s a great combination in his district.

marshall adame, who ran against him as a d but lost in the primary, was the guy who used to run the basra airport during the time just after we invaded, and he was a former marine to boot…so big-time military and iraq cred was not enough to grab the crossover vote needed to challenge jones.

jones, unlike jesse helms (to give a recent example), also does not seem to come across as anti-black, and eastern nc has a significant black population, unlike western nc.

this suggets jones is fairly secure in his position.

to take him down might require a lot of outside money…and there is one avenue of attack that might be effective:

jones is forever announcing his surprise at otherwise predictable events, and the point of attack might be to question whether having a naive congressman is a smart idea for the troops–but it’s not gonna be an easy sell right now.

of course, the same “rs don’t support the troops” arguments could be used against jones…but i suspect his differences with his own party on iraq will insulate him from some of that criticism.

---

by: fake consultant @ Fri Jul 18, 2008 at 00:22:12 AM CDT

[ Parent ]  

Jones father represented the NC-1 CD before his death in 1992. (0.00 / 0)

NC-1 was a CBC district-
Eva Clayton- 1992-2002
Frank Ballance- 2002-2004
GK Butterfield- 2004- present.

---

by: nkpolitics @ Fri Jul 18, 2008 at 07:52:53 AM CDT

[ Parent ]  

Also … (0.00 / 0)

I believe he used to be a Democrat .. so in some ways .. he’s like a Blue Dog .. and the other commenter was right about his dad

John McCain: Bush right to veto kids health insurance expansion

---

by: Calvin Jones and the 13th Apostle @ Fri Jul 18, 2008 at 13:55:34 PM CDT

[ Parent ]  

Time to revive Use It or Lose It? (0.00 / 0)

Mark Warner could surely afford to donate the maximum allowed to Begich, Musgrove, Lunsford, Franken, Merkley, LaRocco, Allen, Hagen, and Noriega, and the same is probably true of every single one of our incumbent Senators; I would think that fifty maxed-out donations would go a good way toward evening up the money races in those states.  All those potential donors would be helping themselves as well as the recipients, too, since a stronger majority benefits everyone in the majority party.

---

by: mantis @ Fri Jul 18, 2008 at 22:41:58 PM CDT