In the last two weeks, there have been new polls from virtually every single state in this update. Here are the category changes:
Alaska upgrades from “Lean Democrat” to “Likely Democrat”
Georgia upgrades from “Lock Republican” to “Likely Republican”
Kentucky downgrades from “Lean Republican” to “Likely Republican”
Louisiana downgrades from “Lean Democrat” to “Toss-up”
North Carolina upgrades from “Likely Republican” to “Lean Republican”
Texas upgrades from “Likely Republican” to “Lean Republican”
Two things strike me about this forecast. First, the almost total lack of competitive Senate campaigns is interesting, even if it makes for a boring forecast. Only two campaigns, Louisiana and Mississippi-B, are currently within the margin of error, according to Pollster.com. Further, only two other campaigns, Oregon and Colorado, and within twice the margin of error according to Pollster.com. Virtually every Senate race, including four Democratic pickups, are virtual locks right now.
Second, it is almost impossible to see a Democratic path to 60 right now. Even if no Democratic incumbents lose, reaching 60 even with Lieberman requires winning four of the “Lean” or “Likely” Republican seats. If you can see four victories in there, you are a much more optimistic person than I am. Now, with 60 votes probably unreachable, we should instead be focusing on picking up as many good Democrats as possible, rather than as many Democrats as possible. In other words, if we can squeeze out a win in one of Minnesota, Maine, or Oregon, right now that it probably our best play.
* = Stevens is virtually guaranteed to lose, pending the outcome of his primary. While he now has a self-financing primary challenger, he also leads his primary by about 40 points. If Stevens were to not be on the ballot, the complexion of this campaign would change dramatically.
As an anti-spam measure, there is a 24-hour waiting period after registering before new users can comment. blog advertising is good for you
blog advertising is good for you
