Obama Strategy: Wait for McCain-Palin to Implode?

by: tremayne

Sat Sep 13, 2008 at 13:32


Yesterday was supposed to be “the first day of the rest of the campaign” according to the Obama team and the point at which they started to fire back, according to reports I read. So I was a bit disappointed when the day ended and the only “hitting back” were two rather uninspired ads. One ad is just Obama talking into the camera about as uncharismatically as Obama is capable of and saying the other side is talking about change but he means it. Nothing else in the ad, not even a symbolic item or two in the background. The other ad at least mocks McCain as being out of touch and unable to use a computer but I'm not sure how many votes this moves. In fact some lower information voters may not use a computer either and probably don't like to think of themselves as “out of touch.”

So either the campaign is just organically careful and unwilling to take chances at this point or they have a stealthy double-reverse psychology type of plan. While I fear the former, I'm hoping it's the latter and it goes something like this (follow along).

tremayne :: Obama Strategy: Wait for McCain-Palin to Implode?

Sarah Palin is just a smorgasbord of unqualified, hypocritical, scandal-plagued non-governance. And John McCain has recently gone out of his way to highlight his own hypocritical tendencies and willingness to sellout whatever shreds of credibility he still had.

And the media seems to be, surprisingly, taking note. Even the crew at the The View got into the act. Watching McCain's head swivel from one side of the sofa to the other as attacks came in from all angles was beautiful.

And the Palin interview with Charlie Gibson may be having a negative impact. The interview gave Gibson's World News a big boost in the ratings so it was watched and a Nightline that included another portion of the interview beat out both Letterman and Leno. What is the impact? Take a look at the internals from today's dKos tracking poll by Research 2000. Palin now has the lowest favorable rating of all 4 of the candidates. And unlike Joe Biden for whom 18 percent are undecided, only 11 percent are undecided about Palin. The gap between her favorable and unfavorable, which a candidate wants to be as large as possible is down to just +9, the smallest, again, of the four. With a few more days or a few more gaffes it might go down to zero or even move into negative territory.

So maybe the Obama strategy is to let the press do the dirty work of tearing down the opponents. Maybe they are working the back channels to push these lines of attack. And certainly Obama has been pointing out the lies and distortions in his campaign appearances. But I've been surprised at the rather minor squawking they've done over the “sex education” attack ad but perhaps they think it will backfire on McCain-Palin on its own.

Or maybe I'm giving the campaign too much credit and the press is starting to do it's job because they know they abdicated it for much of this decade and this is a “make good” moment.


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this probably is what they have in mind, but…. (0.00 / 0)
I can’t really imagine that the wait and see approach makes much sense in this environment when the McCain campaign is on the offensive 24/7.  I think it’s highly likely that the wait for McCain/Palin to implode position is really a symptom of being caught offguard by the McCain campaign’s rapid video messaging response operation.  If Obama’s team was up to par there’d be a new video produced daily taking advantage of every single one of McCain/Palin’s day to day problems.  Instead, they end up waiting until these gaffes are diffused and meaningless… for example, where’s the ad on McCain admitting he’s out of touch?  More rapid response, please.

The good news is McCain’s bounce is fading, the race is tied and there’s plenty of news cycles left to win.  Let’s hope Obama repositions and takes advantage of their narrow opportunity to rebound.  If things crystallize with Obama perpetually -2 or tied, the rest of the race could be tough.  


 
especially since debating (0.00 / 0)
is not Obama’s strong suit.

Fortunately for us, McCain is also not a great debater, but I’m sure he’ll be prepped with plenty of one-liners and misleading sound bites.

Join the Iowa progressive community at Bleeding Heartland.


[ Parent ]  
Why do people keep saying this? (4.00 / 2)
He did pretty well in the primaries against a much more formidable opponent than McCain. True, he’s a better speechgiver than debater but that doesn’t make him crummy in debates. Although I must admit to some apprehension over how well he’ll be able to counter McCain’s saccharine emptiness when they do square off. It could end up looking like trying to slice cotton candy with a rapier.

[ Parent ]  
I agree with desmoinsdem (0.00 / 0)
And I’ve said the exact same thing in other posts. Granted, I watched only a handful of debates in the primaries, but then again he only has three to make good in the general so I don’t think you have to have seen them all to make a judgment.

It’s my opinion that Obama’s style of qualifying each statement like 5 times, rambles a bit and says “Um Um Uuhh…” more than my 5yo talks about Star Wars (and that is a lot!) is in stark contrast to McCain’s direct, short declarative statements. Even though McCain is full of shit 90-95 percent of the time, he comes across clearer, sharper and more resolute. People know his stance even if it is batshit crazy.

Frankly, in the primary debates, I thought Biden kicked all their asses six ways to Sunday, you know, so what? The general is much different than the primaries since there is a STARK difference in policy, vision and worldview. I really have to wonder that during the debates if Obama will qualify any  lukewarm attack he has an opening to perpetrate with a 2 minute soliloquy on McCain’s service and bravery and sacrifices.  

He’s certainly not going to mix it up like Clinton did or even Gore and it would be a fanfuckingtastic shock if he channeled 2000 NC McCain and called shame on 2008 McCain right there in the first debate and does it early.  

Laugh hard. Its a long ways to the bank.  


[ Parent ]  
I wouldn't be so sure (0.00 / 0)
he’s not going to mix it up. I certainly agree that he’s going to have to sharpen up his style, but don’t see any reason to doubt that he will. I also share your worry about the Dems’ addiction to pretending that McCain is a hero, or honorable, or a decent human being. Maybe by that time it will be too ridiculous to continue.

Like I’ve said elsewhere in this thread, there’s going to come a time when voters are done with empty emoting and start looking for some meat. At that point McCain has nothing and Obama shines.

PS — I just don’t get why so many folks here want Obama to keep pretending like McCain was OK in 2000. All that does is make listeners think, “maybe that’s still the real McCain, and even Obama liked him.” McCain was always a weasel. It ain’t our job to pretend otherwise.


[ Parent ]  
2000 McCain (0.00 / 0)
No, McCain was a turd back then too, but I liked how he told W to basically go fuck himself for all the dirty campaigning W was doing. I’d like to see that from Obama. Call him out and see if McCain will blow his top. At the very least we get the creepy smile with robo-blinking. Either way its a win for Obama.  

Laugh hard. Its a long ways to the bank.  

[ Parent ]  
Debating Skill (4.00 / 3)
Actual debating skill has little to do with “winning” one of these Presidential debates. They have little to do with proving your points and everything to do with appearing Presidential.

Obama is very good at appearing Presidential.


[ Parent ]  
This is fine… (4.00 / 3)
I have no problem saying that McCain is a more effective debater than Obama.  McCain is just more at home in those settings.

Does anyone not remember the expectation-setting disaster of 2000?  It probably lost the election for Gore (well, made it close enough to steal).  I remember leading up to the debates how everyone said Gore was an amazing debater, and that Bush was a complete moron so would probably get killed by the debates.  Well, Bush held his own… thereby completely surpassing expectations and ended up jumping into the lead.


[ Parent ]  
Working the refs on the low? (0.00 / 0)
That’s the other option I could think, they’re pointing out to the press that they have to call him a liar for their reporting to be worthwhile.

Anyway, either this is the most impressive, well-thought out rope a dope I’ve ever seen, and the plan was to destroy the myth of a maverick, or they have been very weak and are maybe just getting lucky.  After watching the primary, part of me thinks it is the former.  Anyway, we’ll see.


 
Rope A Dope (0.00 / 0)
I guess we’ll see. Perhaps the Obama campaign has simply noticed that the McCain campaign is lying over-the-top non-stop. A basic strategy in just about any game is: When your opponent is about to make a mistake, don’t stop him.

Of course, this all might be some wishful thinking. Who knows?


[ Parent ]  
the computer ad (4.00 / 1)
I thought the computer ad by Obama was lame and could be counter-productive since many older votes still do not use a computer, and many low-income people cannot afford a computer. With that said, that wait-and-see approach equals doom when your opponent is hitting you left and right on a daily basis. You have to hit back.  

 
it's really pathetic if people think like that (0.00 / 0)
i don’t know shit about healthcare policy, but I sure as hell except my elected representatives too.  if they don’t, then they simply shouldn’t be leading this county.  it’s fair game to question whether McCain knows enough about healthcare policy, even if I don’t.

similarly, it’s ok for some older folks not to know how to use a computer as long as they’re not trying to be the leader of free world


[ Parent ]  
Computer Ad (4.00 / 1)
The problem with the ad is not that it raised the fact that a candidate for President can’t use a computer.  It’s a legit point.  Imagine if FDR had said in 1932 he couldn’t use a phone.  Think that would have gone over well?

The problem I have with the ad is that it didn’t hammer the idea that the President should be up on and be able to use modern technology and PC/MACs aren’t even the latest technology.  Our falling behind in being a techonologic leader is hurting our economic competitiveness.  It’s an argument that Mark Warner makes very well.  

The ad should have asked – how can a man who can’t even turn on a computer help the US restore its technological competitiveness which is essential to creating good jobs and a strong economy?  That would be an effective use of the argument and Obama could still make it.


[ Parent ]  
The computer ad… (0.00 / 0)
…may backfire. Apparently McCain has trouble working a keyboard because of his war injuries.

 
this is hard to buy — he could get split, ergonomic keyboards…. (0.00 / 0)
god knows, he has the money.  

[ Parent ]  
i've heard this too (0.00 / 0)
I don’t really believe it (you can position a keyboard and mouse down low) but I’m sure their campaign will say “he’s mocking McCain’s disability!”

[ Parent ]  
Just great. (0.00 / 0)
Yet another chance to hear about the career prisoner’s problems.

[ Parent ]  
There are plenty of people with disabilities who can still use a computer. (0.00 / 0)
McCain is just out of touch, that’s all.

[ Parent ]  
That's true (0.00 / 0)
of course, but you just don’t give that kind of soundbite to the opposition. I’m already getting nauseated in anticipation of the pious whining we’ll hear back on this one. There are few things less inspiring than an offensive that’s too timid to address real weakness.

[ Parent ]  
Give It To Them? (0.00 / 0)
This is not giving them a soundbite opportunity. No matter what Obama says, McCain will say “P.O.W!”.

[ Parent ]  
This is baloney (0.00 / 0)
It’s right wing blogger crap, and it’s already been debunked by:
1) multiple photos of McCain using cellphones, including blackberries
2) the campaign itself, lamely claiming that McCain carries a laptop with him

http://latimesblogs.latimes.co…
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/…

In addition, let’s use our brains a little.  Given the last three months, it is completely absurd to think that, if McCain couldn’t use a computer because of war injuries, we wouldn’t have heard about this first from the McCain campaign, screaming about it in rapid-response press releases.

They have been more than eager to use McCain’s POW days to defend him from virtually anything.  It’s ridiculous to say that they wouldn’t have done so here, if they had thought of it (and if it were true, they would have thought of it).


[ Parent ]  
However… (0.00 / 0)
…if you’re looking for backfire, what may just happen is hapless wingnut bloggers, in their zeal to “debunk” Obama’s ad, may end up spreading it around more than it would have been otherwise.

[ Parent ]  
Could work well for Obama, actually (4.00 / 1)
If this is easily disprovable and the McCain campaign tries to use it anyway it could be a great opportunity for Obama to turn the POW thing against him.

Obama would be able to point out how low it is to for McCain to shamelessly and dishonestly use his POW background to attack him. If the press picked up on that it could be downright awful for McCain.


[ Parent ]  
Bull Shit (0.00 / 0)
I’ve met blind people who use a computer. I’ve met people with no arms who use a computer. Injuries, whether from a war or not, are no excuse.

[ Parent ]  
Ever Hear Of Stephen Hawking? (4.00 / 1)
He seems to use a computer just fine.

[ Parent ]  
That's BS (0.00 / 0)
There are lots of pics of him holding a cellphone.  If it can hold a cell up to his ear, he can type on a keyboard.  

This is another did we mention he was a POW moment.


[ Parent ]  
The computer ad is a clear indicator (4.00 / 3)
that, contrary to what Pfouffe says, this campaign doesn’t have a fucking clue.

 
The media are pissed (0.00 / 0)
I would argue that the reason the media are going after McCain is that they are pissed off at him and his managers.

For a long time McCain was their favorite and he knew just how to play them. Now things have changed. The choosing of Palin and then the actions to keep her hidden annoyed both print and broadcast reporters. Heaven forbid that anyone interfere with their ratings drive.

The real question is whether or not they will keep it up.


 
maybe the media industrial complex (0.00 / 0)
Viacom, Disney, General Electric, and TimeWarner are having second thoughts about handing Sarah “mushroom clouds over Russia” Palin the nuclear launch codes. The fallout from her clueless decisions might negatively impact their annual earnings.

 
Waiting for hurricane (4.00 / 1)
Maybe the Obama campaign is waiting for the hurricane news to pass. It’s hard to compete for the news media’s attention when they are so focused on the hurricane.  

 
Holistic strategy? (0.00 / 0)
I’ve wondered whether Obama’s plan was to start out “above the dirt”, call off the 727s, let McCain overbalance with stupid attacks and lies, and then regretfully call in the 727s and start shooting hard at the “honorable straightshooter” image. Force people to face up to the reality this is not just a game and Mcain and Palin could really end up running this country. As long as the race looks tied or a little better this could work. If McCain gets significantly ahead at any point, though, the gamble is probably lost.

We’ll see very soon whether there’s a plan there. In the meantime, stuff like the computer ad is pretty discouraging. Once again it stinks of bad advisors and internal power struggles. To all appearances, Obama is being influenced by people who are not as smart as he is. That has to stop, whatever the strategy arc might be.


 
Strategy was obviously to play nice (0.00 / 0)
It suits Obama’s personality and it worked against Clinton. They couldn’t have planned to turn now, because the quantity and vileness of sleaze coming from the McCain camp has shocked everybody – to the extent that even a few wingnuts have decried it, and we know what it takes to make them violate marching orders. This is off the planning charts. Obama obviously overestimated his pull with the media – had Clinton been like this the media would have gone on a 24/7 frenzy to take her down. But the media is much more for McCain than for Obama and they’ve given McCain an amazing amount of slack. He also probably overestimated the decency and issue-orientation of the American voter, against because he’s working by the standards of a Democratic primary campaign.

They are still playing nice, because an even mildly aggressive response to the sex ed business is to say McCain would help child molesters to get elected. It’s pretty supportable, not over the edge at all. But all we’re getting is very tepid liar accusations.  


[ Parent ]  
Politely Calling Bullshit (0.00 / 0)
Seriously, everyone knew/knows the depth of sleaze and deception the Republican machine is capable of mining. To say this campaign is a shock or surprise is insincere at best and teeth-gnashingly naive at worst. I would suggest that McCain has held back quite a bit considering the chips stacked against him. I’m surprised there has not been more vile and disgusting interracial, black menace and other brainstem targeting attacks from righty 527s.

Hillary sang from the mountaintop almost daily during the primaries that the republicans would pull out all the stops in order to win. They have nothing to lose. If Obama loses because his team was unprepared or unwilling to level the playing field then shame on him and shame on all of his apologists that would rather blame the scurrilousness of the enemy for the defeat rather than hold our nominee accountable for being ill-prepared or lacking the will to fight on our behalf.

I agree that Obama may have started to believe his own hype and thought the media would be lapdogs. That would have been a safe assumption if he was up against any of the other (R) primary candidates, but McCain has been a media darling for so long, old habits die hard. Shit, even Jon Stewart had McCain on a ton and gave him Bambi eyes each time.

Obama ain’t dead. He’s actually winning right now if you look at things juuuuuuuuust right and with one eye closed, but he has time to close the sale. I have faith that Obama will win. To borrow an earthy phrase from my dad, this things gonna be tighter than a frog’s ass.


Laugh hard. Its a long ways to the bank.  


[ Parent ]  
More like it. (0.00 / 0)
This one is the way it should be. But once again, Obama still has to tell voters why McCain/Palin’s dishonesty and Bushiness are bad for them.

[ Parent ]  
The Obama "secret plan" strikes again! (0.00 / 0)


Michael Bloomberg, prince of corporate welfare

 
Maybe we (I) put too much emphasis (0.00 / 0)
on the computer ad. Here’s Obama’s energy ad, which beautifully plucks the talking points out of a complicated subject and hammers them home. Sometimes they do great.

Let’s look at the situation: McCain’s campaign is running on pure sentimentality, career prisoner bathos, over-the-top attacks that are costing him credibility. That’s the kind of thing that wears thin before too long. At some point voters may just decide they’re getting hungry substance, not more Hallmark/Crypt-Keeper moments. And they’ll find that the only place to get that is Obama. Could work. And it could just be the smartest possible strategy for a candidate who above all, must not be the Angry Black Man.


 
Letting the press do the dirty work (4.00 / 1)
So maybe the Obama strategy is to let the press do the dirty work of tearing down the opponents.

Now there is a tried and true strategy with a proven track record of success for Democrats…

…Adding, while McCain’s lies are today’s press ‘flavor of the day,’ let’s not forget that 48 hours ago it was all ‘lipstick’ all the time. And 48 hours from now…? It takes disciplined, focused repetition, day after day, week after week, to fully define the public perception. Assuming the media will do it for you is folly…

Self-refuting Christine O’Donnell is proof monkeys are still evolving into humans


 
first of all… (4.00 / 2)
…as I understand it, Obama put out more than two new ads yesterday (I believe the count was five).

Second, there’s a difference between waiting for the other guy to implode, and standing back while they’re actually imploding.

Don’t get me wrong: I’d like to see the Obama campaign use some of the low-hanging fruit that’s out there (e.g. the rape kits scandal).  But McCain/Palin really are taking some very bad press right now for their blatant lies.  This could be one of those times where if the Obama campaign went after McCain themselves on the lies, it would turn the lies into a “he-said, she-said” situation.

I’d like to see the Obama campaign cut more ads on McCain’s dishonorable behavior/lying in the coming weeks.  But given the bad press McCain/Palin are getting right now, I’m content to wait a bit.


 
We'll see (4.00 / 1)

 The rape-kits story isn’t low-hanging fruit. It’s fruit that’s been picked, washed, and placed on a silver platter with a garnish.

 And what does the Obama campaign do? Put out that beyond-lame computer ad.

 I never thought I’d miss Bob Shrum.  

“We judge ourselves by our ideals; others by their actions. It is a great convenience.” — Howard Zinn


[ Parent ]  
McCain Lies and Getting Back to Talking About Iraq (0.00 / 0)
Is it me or does the media jumping all over McCain’s lies give us a great opportunity to pivot back to Iraq and remind the American people that the lies of the Bush Admin are how we ended up in this morass which has cost 5,000 American lives, $500 billion and America’s international reputation.  I can see commercials with McCain’s lies interspersed with stories about the lies and deceptions that have been uncovered on the run up to the Iraq War ending with the tagline “Can We Afford 4 More Years of the Same?”

I really believe this is a great opportunity to change the subject and think the Obama campaign needs to take it.


 
Iraq may not be a good idea (0.00 / 0)
for the entire campaign since about March, polls have shown the public prefered McCain over both Clinton and Obama on Iraq. The surge has perceived to have worked, thus we’ve really lost Iraq as an issue.

We could argue judgement going in, that Obama had the correct judgement and McCain did not and Obama did that yesterday in New Hampshire, but that’s pretty much it. Obama loses if McCain gets into a surge debate.  


[ Parent ]  
Not the Surge, The Initial Decision (0.00 / 0)
I see it as an opportunity to bring up the lies that led us into Iraq in the first place.  Also, I think most people don’t care about the surge and want us out of there.  I don’t sense that has changed one bit since 2006.

[ Parent ]  
Ice floes, anyone? (0.00 / 0)
Plenty of older Americans (a) do not have or use computers (and on some days, I wish I were in their number), (b) consider themselves, rightly, to be highly informed and engaged politically, and (c) vote in large numbers.

It’s really, really stupid for the OFB to mock them constantly, as this post does, and it’s also stupid to mock McCain for being old, which also insults them.

With friends like these…  

I am in earnest — I will not equivocate — I will not excuse — I will not retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.  


 
It Is Not A Question Of (0.00 / 0)
whether or not you can use a computer?  It is a question of whether or not you think the President should be able to use a computer.  I think most people do.  Even W claims he uses The Google and The Internets.

This ad didn’t address the subject well but it is pretty remarkable that it has been almost 15 yrs since the Internet exploded onto the scene and the guy doesn’t even know how to turn on a computer.  It is not 1994, it is 2008.  A PC/MAC isn’t even the latest tech anymore.

I’d frame the question differently – how can we expect this guy to restore our technological competitiveness, a key to a strong economy as we saw in the 1990s, if he doesn’t even know how to turn on a computer?


[ Parent ]  
NIice try, but tremayne wrote.. (0.00 / 0)
… this:

In fact some lower information voters may not use a computer either and probably don’t like to think of themselves as “out of touch.”

That’s not the ad; that’s tremayne. With friends like these….

I am in earnest — I will not equivocate — I will not excuse — I will not retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.  


[ Parent ]  
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