Rather than slamming quick hits with half a dozen entries, here are six polls released today worth noticing:
Indiana Senate looks terrible for Democrats. Both leading contenders (Evansville Mayor, Jonathan Weinzapfel, has apparently bowed out) to be the Democratic nominee in Indiana are losing by at least 10% to every potential Republican nominee, according to Rasmussen reports. So, it looks like keeping Evan Bayh's seat will be a real longshot for Democrats. Groovy.
I will attempt to have a full Senate forecast up later today. Tomorrow at the latest.
There appears to be a strong anti-Palin vote, as President Obama's numbers go up to 50% when matched against her. Against everyone else, he is steady at 45-46%.
Nevada health care poll. The PCCC / DFA / CREDO coalition that is conducting the Senate whip count on the public option has released a new poll on health care in Nevada. The key findings are what people following polls closely would expect:
The overall health care bill is unpopular;
The public option is popular;
Voters don't really care about process issues like reconciliation and the filibuster.
Nothing untoward about Fire Dog Lake House polls. Nate Silver analyzes the Fire Dog Lake polls of four House districts. He concludes that there was nothing fishy about the polls, just a significant pro-Republican House effect due to methodological decisions made by SurveyUSA (not by FDL)
So I don't think there's anything untoward that's gone on here -- although there do appear to be some house effects in these congressional district polls resulting from methodological decisions that SurveyUSA has made.
I am with Nate here, and I am pretty much done criticizing individual polls myself. After my research on election forecasting showed that just taking the simple mean of all polls conducted over the last fifteen days of a campaign produced the most accurate results around, I've pretty much got a deaf ear now when it comes to complaints of bias or methodological flaws in any single poll. Forecasting works out best when you look at them all equally, rather than sifting out polls you don't like. Poll averaging is more accurate than any individual pollster.
House ballot update. After forgetting for a few days, I have finally updated the National House Ballot again. I am trying to get a seat by seat House forecast completed soon. Apologies for the delay.
CPAC straw poll. CPAC is holding their straw poll this weekend. Last year, Mitt Romney won. Four years ago, at the same point in the presidential election cycle, George Allen narrowly edged out John McCain.
A seventh poll worth looking at, but already mentioned in Quick Hits, comes from the Illinois Senate race. According to an internal poll, Democrat Alexis Giannoulias leads by 4%.
Just in case anyone out there was thinking about helping Tamyra D'Ippolito get on the ballot for Indiana Senate, please consider my plea for you to not provide that help.
On the surface, Tamyra D'Ippolito has a story that might appeal to some people. She appears to hold some left-wing, if vague, positions, is the first woman to run for Senate in Indiana, and was willing to mount a primary challenge to Evan Bayh. And, if she gets on the ballot, it will severely complicate Evan Bayh's parting plan of allowing the Indiana state Democratic Party, sans primary, from likely anointing a right-wing Democrat as the nominee.
However, even a cursory look at D'Ippolito's campaign and background shows that she is a really, really bad choice for Democrats in Indiana. Consider:
She worked on Wall Street for 20 years, including for Lehman Brothers: From the front page of D'Ippolito's campaign website:
At 25, I moved to New York City where I lived for the next 20 years. I worked on Wall Street for Salomon Smith Barney and later for Lehman Brothers.
Ooooo... now there's a winning background for 2010! She worked on Wall Street for 20 years, including for the company that was the immediate cause of the financial collapse in September of 2008! That should play well.
No grassroots support. D'Ippolito appears to have been running since at least November 5th. And yet, despite this, she does not have enough of an organization to get the needed signatures to make the ballot:
So how's D'Ippolito doing? She's collected 3,500 of the 4,500 signatures, 500 in each Congressional district in Indiana, which are needed by noon tomorrow in order to qualify. D'Ippolito said that she's particularly short in IN-08, in the Terre Haute/Evansville area of the district. Her campaign manager has contacted all of the heads of the county Democratic parties asking them if they would help her get on the ballot.
She isn't going to even collect enough signatures to make the ballot on her own? And she is particularly weak in Terre Haute where, according to her website, she went to college? That is a severe lack of organization.
But wait, it gets worse! D'Ippolito has all of 23 Twitter followers, despite receiving a mention on Keith Olbermann's program. And then there is this bit:
She is very earnest and liberal, but one of her Facebook posts from 3 days ago says "I am having trouble with my computer so I am going to the library every day."
Really feeling the off-line and online grassroots with this campaign. She is ready to take on the establishment party, and then win the general election.
No Money Some people decry the amount of money in politics, and don't like ti when candidates are dismissed because they can't raise money. However, D'Ippolito is bad at fundraising even by the standards of Arizona's public financing system, which requires candidates to bring in several small donations before receiving public funds.
D'Ippolito has three donations on Act Blue, for a total of $60. One of those donations came in today.
Further, she has not even filed a report with the FEC, which means she is either flouting campaign finance laws or raised less than $5,000 in November and December combined. I am going to assume it is the latter.
Right now, if I were a Republican activist, I would be working to help D'Ippolito get on the Indiana primary ballot as a Democrat. If I was in the Indiana state Democratic Party, I would be hiring lawyers to challenge her filing when it is submitted. This is because D'Ippolito would be a disastrous Democratic nominee in Indiana. At best, she would get thumped by 30-40%, and we would never hear from her. At worst, she would get thumped by 30-40%, and we would hear about how another Democratic Senate nominee has ties to banks that caused the financial crisis (ala Giannoulias Illinois.
Republicans are inching closer to retaking the Senate. Indiana is a winnable seat--and we can get someone more progressive than Bayh, hopefully--but we throw Republicans a further lifeline if we help D'Ippolito get on the ballot. Please, please, don't help her.
Update: Given the three candidates who are being floated--Rep. Baron Hill, Rep. Brad Ellsworth, and Evansville Mayor Jonathan Weinzapfel--I'm with David Dayden. Mark me down for Weinzapfel. He appears more liberal, and he isn't holding office in D.C. right now.
Evan Bayh's surprise retirement announcement comes only four days before the filing deadline for the Indiana primary. Since Indiana requires Senate candidates to submit 500 signatures from each of the state's nine congressional districts (by tomorrow!), there is no feasible way for a new candidate to announce and gather the necessary signatures before the filing deadline.
So, this means that the only option left for Democrats in Indiana is for the state party to select a candidate. As such, there will be no primary election:
R.J. Gerard, communications director for the Indiana Democratic Party confirmed to TPMDC that the state Democratic Party would be able to select a new candidate to run in November's general election if no one files petitions with 4,500 signatures (500 within each of the state's nine House districts) to run in the primary.
"I would imagine that it would be the plan, depending on what happens between now and Friday," Gerard said. Gerard did not know whether any discussions are going on with potential new candidates.
This means the Indiana Democrats would avoid holding a primary to choose who will be their nominee in the fall.
Who might the state party choose? The Indiana bench, at least at the Congressional level, is weak.
They could go with Andre Carson, but would Indiana really be the first state to put a Muslim in the Senate? Doesn't feel like a red state in 2010 is when that barrier will be broken.
So, among Indiana Congressman, this basically leaves Joe Donnelly by default. This would not be very exciting, given that Donnelly is one of the most conservative members of the Democratic House caucus. His lifetime Progressive Punch score on crucial votes is only 33.78%, ranking him 245 out of the 255 current Democratic members of the House.
Anyway, given the anti-Washington mood, it is probably a good idea for the Indiana state party to look outside of the Congressional delegation. Hopefully, they can find a Mayor or State Senator in the mold of Eric Massa or Alan Grayson. Anti-financial institution and anti-bailout rhetoric is probably the best chance Democrats have in red districts this year. Also, Massa and Grayson also happen to be the only two members of the Congressional Progressive Caucus from lean-Republican districts. They have the only proven model for Progs in Republican districts.
Update--another Democrat already in the race: There is an existing candidate, Tamyra d'Ippolito. She has 23 followers on Twitter, 2 donations on Act Blue, and a pretty bare bones campaign website. She hasn't collected the signatures to get on the ballot yet, and I doubt that she will given what appears to be a very small organization. But, if she did somehow get on the ballot, the Democratic Party would probably have to defeat her in a write-in campaign. Otherwise, she would be the nominee, and Republicans would cruise in the general election.
Kind of makes me wonder if Republicans will start helping her get on the ballot now..
Update 2--Dem strategists leaning toward Brad Ellsworth: A member of Congress I forgot about, Brad Ellsworth, is being floated by Democratic strategists:
Rep. Brad Ellsworth (D) is the early name Dem strategists are throwing around. He easily beat ex-Rep. John Hostettler (R) in '06 to capture a centrist district, and he has cut a moderate swath in his 2 terms in the House.
Its true that Ellsworth defeated Hostettler. However, Hostettler is not a strong candidate. If Hostettler were to win the Republican primary, the seat would be very winnable for Democrats.
There are three problems with Ellsworth: he is in D.C., his House seat would be taken over by a Republican, and he is just as right-wing as Donnelly.
They need to pick someone from outside of D.C. who is willing to go after financial institutions. That is the model right now.
Sen. Evan Bayh (D-IN) will not seek a 3rd term in the Senate next year, according to a Dem source, handing Dems yet another setback as they struggle to salvage their damaged ship.
Bayh, elected statewide 5 times, will become the 5th Senate Dem not to seek another term. His decision to step aside , first reported by The Fix and confirmed to Hotline OnCall, creates an open seat in IN, a usually-red state that broke the mold in '08 by voting narrowly for Pres. Obama.
Bayh actually had a pretty solid lead on his various Republican challengers, so this is something of a surprise. It is also another blow to Democratic Senate hopes in November. Bayh, for all the frustration he caused progressives, was part of a well-known family institution in Indiana, and as such was the best Democratic bet to keep the seat.
It is going to be much more difficult for Democrats to keep this seat, now. Given that Bayh was currently listed at a 98% chance to retain the seat, it will also push the projected Democratic Senate total for 2011 down to only 52 seats.
