Tomorrow is a big day for primary elections, with contests in Indiana, North Carolina and Ohio. On the Democratic side, the premier campaigns to watch are the two Senate primaries in Ohio and North Carolina. Polling over the final 15 days of each campaign shows mixed news for progressives:
Ohio: (simple mean of two polls)
Lt. Governor Lee Fisher: 48.0
Sec. Of State Jennifer Brunner: 25.5
This was a close race for a while, but Lee Fisher is surging over the final two weeks (likely due to a large advantage in paid media). This is unfortunate, as Brunner is a noticeably more progressive candidate, but the outcome now seems to be a foregone conclusion. In the general election, Fisher is in a dead heat with likely Republican nominee Rob Portman.
North Carolina: (simple mean of three polls)
Secretary of State Elaine Marshall: 25.7%.
Former state Senator Cal Cunningham: 21.0%
Marshall is the choice here.
There are four other candidates in this primary, but Marshall and Cunningham have pulled away from the field. This campaign is close enough that notoriously inaccurate primary polling cannot predict a winner at this time.
Tomorrow, the issue is not just who wins, but whether or not that winner receives 40% +1 of the vote. If no one receives 40%+1, then Marshall and Cunningham will face each other in a run-off in five weeks. I am of the opinion that a run-off is in no way a negative, as it will continue to raise name ID and sharpen the campaign of the eventual winner.
Also of note
The Republican primary for Senate takes place in Indiana. There are three major candidates, and former Senator Dan Coats is favored. However, there is only one poll on the campaign, so there is no clear picture on where things stand. The winner will likely pummel Democratic nominee Brad Ellsworth in the general election.
Finally, make sure to take a look at the results of the Democratic primary in thhe North Carolina 8th congressional district. Larry Kissell is being challenged from the left by Nancy Shakir. While Shakir isn't going to win, her vote percentage will still be interesting. If she can receive 35% or more of the vote, it will mean that a stronger primary campaign against Kissell-or a more progressive campaign should a Republican take the seat--could work in later cycles.
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