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Finally results from the Arkansas primary are still not in but as of this morning the two top Democrats are nearly tied and, because neither reached 50 percent, face a June 8 runoff election. That's just 3 weeks away. As of now, Blanche Lincoln has 44.4 percent and Bill Halter 42.6 percent. But all the momentum is with Halter. Research 2000 has been polling this race all spring for Daily Kos. The last 4 polls look like this for Halter: March 25: 31 percent April 15: 33 percent April 29: 35 percent May 13: 37 percent. In the same polls, Blanche Lincoln was always within 1.5 points of 44.5 which is almost exactly the percent she tallied last night. She's not likely to do any better in June for several reasons. Turnout for special elections is usually quite low which will favor the candidate with more excited voters. Halter's momentum shows he is overcoming lower name ID. Lincoln's favorable/unfavorable numbers are terrible. And finally, polling versus the Republican nominee shows Halter stronger than Lincoln which may also move Democrats to Halter. You can donate to Halter here. It will be an uphill fight in the general but 1) Lincoln had no chance in the general anyway and 2) the Democratic Senate caucus is more progressive without her (and Specter) in it. The conservaDems in that group will be increasingly isolated and have less ability to sway the group. And 3) Halter's primary momentum could help carry him to an upset in November.
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