“This is not a left vs. right debate. Voters care about who is going to fight for them in Washington against special interest lobbyists.” – Charles Chamberlain, Political Director DFA
Last night DFA commissioned a poll from Research 2000 to see why Democratic voters went to the polls in Arkansas yesterday.
Here is what we found: Democrats in Arkansas want someone who will stand up for them, not stand with corporate lobbyists in DC. And, Bill Halter is ahead in the run-off 48-46.
Finally results from the Arkansas primary are still not in but as of this morning the two top Democrats are nearly tied and, because neither reached 50 percent, face a June 8 runoff election. That's just 3 weeks away.
As of now, Blanche Lincoln has 44.4 percent and Bill Halter 42.6 percent. But all the momentum is with Halter.
Research 2000 has been polling this race all spring for Daily Kos. The last 4 polls look like this for Halter:
March 25: 31 percent
April 15: 33 percent
April 29: 35 percent
May 13: 37 percent.
In the same polls, Blanche Lincoln was always within 1.5 points of 44.5 which is almost exactly the percent she tallied last night. She's not likely to do any better in June for several reasons. Turnout for special elections is usually quite low which will favor the candidate with more excited voters. Halter's momentum shows he is overcoming lower name ID. Lincoln's favorable/unfavorable numbers are terrible. And finally, polling versus the Republican nominee shows Halter stronger than Lincoln which may also move Democrats to Halter.
You can donate to Halter here.
It will be an uphill fight in the general but 1) Lincoln had no chance in the general anyway and 2) the Democratic Senate caucus is more progressive without her (and Specter) in it. The conservaDems in that group will be increasingly isolated and have less ability to sway the group. And 3) Halter's primary momentum could help carry him to an upset in November.
(Posted last night, but got buried with British and financial news. We’re now at 11 days…and counting… – promoted by AdamGreen)
There are just 12 days left until the Lieberman-Lamont race of 2010 — Lt. Gov. Bill Halter vs. Sen. Blanche Lincoln in Arkansas. Bill Halter released this countdown video today:
The polls are tight. The stakes are high. Do you want to help put a big win on the board for progressives?
The PCCC has raised over $100,000 for Halter's field program and we have local folks on the ground helping to run it. In a primary like this, GOTV will win or lose the election. Chip in here.
Cross-Posted to Project Vote’s Voting Matters Blog
State and federal law outlines, protects, and facilitates the voting rights of citizens. Under ideal circumstances, these laws make voting equally accessible to all eligible Americans without unnecessary barriers or hurdles. Unfortunately, the right to vote is too often misconstrued by the very officials charged with helping to protect and facilitate that right, leaving voters at best confused, and at worst disenfranchised.
The Arkansas Progress Team began organizing three months ago to bring new leadership, ideas, and membership to the Arkansas Young Democrats by focusing on progressive offline and online grassroots organizing. Their three main goals are to increase membership (check this one already), increase fund raising, and increase awareness on the issues important to Young Democrats. On Saturday, April 18th, over 200 Young Democrats turned out to vote at the State Capitol Building and delivered the Arkansas Progress Team a victory.
Left to Right: Eric Bell (Sec/Treas), Jonathan Spinks (Committeeman), and Chris Burks (President)
For awhile it was looking like in the great state of Arkansas, which the last time I checked is still a democracy, 5 incumbent memberS of congress (4 in the house and 1 in the Senate) were going to run unopposed. Up step the Greens, who are giving Arkansas voters an actual choice on their ballots come November.
So far they have nominated three candidates to challenge the five (formerly) unopposed Congressmen: Rebekah Kennedy is running against Senator Mark Pryor(D), Abel Tomlinson is running against Rep. John Boozman (R), and Joshua Drake is running against Rep. Mike Ross (D).
Arkansas Greens, who achieved full ballot access statewide in October, plan to nominate two more folks to run against the other two thus far unopposed Congresscritters, Marion Berry & Vic Snyder.
Republicans operate from the top down. Their institutions push the message of their leadership, and the gears of loyalty and conformity grind away lesser concerns such as competence.
Service in that machine is defined by what you will sacrifice to concentrate further the power of the powerful. It is the ‘us vs. them’ of an ever shrinking circle of ‘us’, and it leaves the basic needs of our communities unfulfilled.
Democrats change all that. Democrats are the force that works from the ground upwards. We are the working members of the community who band together and build healthy neighborhoods. We are the party with the rolled up sleeves and boots laced up for action.
Democrats Work is already growing in five states, and the need is so great that our expansion is limited only by our ability to get out the word.
Teams of Democrats partner with other local organizations and do highly visible and valuable work in neighborhoods. We plant trees, paint graffiti, clean parks and work food banks.
We recruit volunteers, keep them visible and active for the stretches between elections, and we get the word out to the community that Democrats are tending to the real needs in the cities and the open spaces. We provide a spotlight for the great elected officials who are willing to pitch in to actually do what their constituents elected them to do, and we bring people into service who may never have thought of themselves as belonging to a party but who are happy to show up wherever people are trying to make a real world impact.
Read on to hear about how you can do the right thing for your neighborhood at the grassroots level, while also building the electoral power that can effect global policy.
Here are some quick hits on elections for Friday afternoon / morning (it depends on where you are reading this from, I guess):
New Nevada Poll
A new poll out of Nevada shows Clinton maintaining her strong lead in the state (Research 2000, Aug. 14-16, 2007, 400 Likely caucus goers, MoE 5, March results in parenthesis):
Once again, just like Iowa and New Hampshire, not much movement at the top, except for Richardson moving up. Oddly enough, even though he is still ahead of Richardson in Nevada, Edwards is cutting back on staff in the state, while Richardson is expanding. This shows that no matter what the national numbers say, he really is a tier above the rest of the field. In the first three states, the campaign is clearly a four-way race between Clinton, Edwards, Obama and Richardson. Also, Romney leads on the Republican side, but to my knowledge they have yet to move up the Nevada caucus to early state status.
Progressive Dem Reverses Retirement Plans
Turns out IL-04 won’t be an open seat after all, as Luis Gutierrez has reversed his retirement announcement. My bet, an this is purely conjecture, is that this reversal is some combination of really liking being in the majority, not being too thrilled with his potential replacements, and not finding his retirement possibilities very exciting. No matter the cause, it is fun to see Republican retirements starting to flow-Pryce in OH-15, Hastert in IL-14, and Pickering MS-03 this week alone-while Democrats are moving in the opposite direction. Guitierrez is a member of the Congressional Progressive Caucus.
A History Lesson on Drafts
I have to agree with Jonathan Singer when it comes to the perplexing Politico article this morning on Fred Thompson supposedly being “the closest thing to a successful draft of a presidential candidate in more than a half-century.” Huh? I was not part of the Draft Clark movement, but I saw it in full-force online back in 2003. Matt, and at least a dozen other people I know, worked on that movement. Further, when Clark dropped out of the race the day after the February 10th primaries, I watched an interview with him the next morning where he specifically stated that he was “obligated” to run because of the draft movement behind him. I’m going out on a limb here and stating that is a little closer to an actual draft movement than Fred Thompson’s “campaign.”
Giuliani Spent 3% of Average Worker Time At Ground Zero
It turns out Rudy Giuliani only spent 29 hours at ground zero, compared to a median of 962 hours for rescue, recovery and debris removal workers. But hey, whose counting? 29 is about the same as 962, right? I think his campaign might start to need some sort of justification besides 9/11.
Clinton Loved In Arkansas
According to new polling from Rasmussen, it looks like Clinton would move Arkansas from a solid red state, to a solid blue state in the general election. She leads every Republican in the state by at least 18%. It should also be noted that Arkansas is the state where Clinton holds her largest primary lead. It appears that Arkansas voters really, really like Hillary Clinton.
National, California Connection In Clinton Polls?
Here is another possible, simpler explanation for Clinton’s improvement in national polls: she is opening up a huge lead in California. Recent Survey USA and Field Poll surveys confirm this, showing Clinton hovering around 50% in the Golden State, although a recent ARG poll shows no significant increase. With something crazy like one in every eight national Democrats in California, half of Clinton’s 4% national increase could have come entirely from California. I don’t know what she is doing out there, but it seems to be working.
Primary Calendar Super Brat Strikes Again
New Hampshire Secretary of State, and primary season super-brat, Bill Gardner is now threatening to screw Iowa too, and hold the New Hampshire caucus on January 8th. This would force Iowa to either hold their cause within just a couple days of New Hampshire, hold it after New Hampshire, or hold it in December. I’m starting to think that every single problem with the calendar rests with Gardner. It would be really funny if Iowa and New Hampshire end up at each others throats. If their alliance breaks down, and Gardner puts New Hampshire on the 8th, then I bet Michigan goes on the 12th, and all hell breaks loose. Two privileged brats who can’t figure out how to divide up the spoils because one of them, New Hampshire, is brattier than the other. Hysterical.
John Edwards was the only presidential candidate to come to the YDA Conference in Dallas, Texas last week. Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton each sent a representative to speak on their behalf. It says a lot that Edwards showed up to an organization that needs attention. It shows that he is committed to helping young people in the Democratic party. We are the ones who will get out your vote, candidates. As one of the presenters said, “you guys aren’t the future of the Democratic Party, you’re the present.”
(I’m second on the right of John in the front row.) originals
Republicans operate from the top down. Their institutions push the message of their leadership, and the gears of loyalty and conformity grind away lesser concerns such as competence.
