Research 2000 has a new poll in Arkansas showing Bill Halter leading Blanche Lincoln, 49%-45%. This is still a very close campaign, given not only the margin but also the poor record of public opinion polling in primaries.
However, the trendline from Research 2000 suggests that Halter is still in a very good position to win on Tuesday. In the eight polls Research 2000 has conducted of the primary, Blanche Lincoln’s share of the vote has remained static, while Halter has consistently gained:
Research 2000, Arkansas Senate primary polling, December 2009-current
| Date |
Halter |
Lincoln |
| June 03 |
49% |
45% |
| May 25 |
47% |
44% |
| May 11 |
37% |
46% |
| Apr 27 |
35% |
43% |
| Apr 13 |
33% |
45% |
| Mar 23 |
31% |
44% |
| Dec 01 |
26% |
42% |
Lincoln’s support is almost entirely unchanged over the past six months. She has hovered in the mid-40s the entire time, with no upward movement whatsoever.
Given that Lincoln was only 2% ahead of Halter on May 18th in actual votes, given her inability to win over new supporters, and given that upwards of 12% of the vote is up for grabs, Bill Halter looks pretty darn good for Tuesday.
Let’s get another primary victory in the old onion bag. You can give to Bill Halter here. Or, sign up to volunteer here. . You can volunteer from anywhere in the US.
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