As history has shown, there is a difference between submitting a voter registration application and finding your name on the rolls when you go to vote. With registration coming to a close, Project Vote is conducting emergency efforts to ensure that no one who wants to vote is left out on Election Day.
Project Vote's Registration Repair Program is an intensive and urgent effort to collect and rectify large numbers of registrations that have been rejected by boards of election. We have been working all over the country to obtain disqualified applications and to contact would-be voters to repair applications with missing or erroneous information.
And it's crucial that we get this ad on the air right now, because voters - particularly persuadable voters - just started voting yesterday in Ohio.
The ad is tough, aggressive, and hard-hitting against the GOP's failed economic policies. But we need your help to get it on the air by Friday.
This ad highlights the report released by the Ohio Democratic Party on Monday, Ohio's Eight Years of Economic Pain. You can download the full report at www.ohiodems.org/economicpain
1,087 Ohio Companies Shut Down or Had Mass Layoffs under George W. Bush, Costing More than 180,000 Ohio Jobs
83 of Ohio's 88 Counties Hit by At Least One Shutdown/Layoff
Since 2001, 1,087 factories and companies in Ohio have shut down or had mass layoffs due to the failed Republican policies in Washington - an average of one shutdown or mass layoff in Ohio every 2.5 days, a new report revealed today. Read the report at www.ohiodems.org/economicpain.
These 1,087 shutdowns/layoffs cost 180,264 Ohioans their jobs - an average of 61 jobs lost each day for eight straight years. Many of these jobs were shipped from Ohio to China, Mexico, India, and other low-wage countries.
Last week, we finished surveying the lay of the land out West. This week, we begin to turn our attention to the Midwest. Yes, that's right. The Midwest looks to be once again a crucial battleground to win both the White House and Congress. And with just six weeks left until election day, we'd like to talk about the state of the races in America's Heartland.
We recently wrote about the Department of Veterans Affairs decision to open its facilities to voter registration drives after months of urging by voting rights groups and elected officials. This week, however, "VA voter suppression continues," as AlterNet's Steven Rosenfeld wrote Tuesday, with voter registration efforts being blocked in California and the VA general counsel criticizing the pending Veterans Voting Support Act (S. 3308), which would bolster federal protection of voter registration opportunities for all wounded veterans. With just three weeks left to register voters in most states, advocates say now is the time to support voter registration efforts in VA facilities and, most importantly, it needs to be explicitly protected from now on through federal law.
Maybe someone out there who knows the inner workings of EMILY's List can explain to me why this group has not put money behind Becky Greenwald, the Democrat challenging loyal Republican foot-soldier Tom Latham in Iowa's fourth Congressional district.
I have been going over the list of Democratic women running for Congress whom EMILY's List is supporting, with a particular focus on the six challengers most recently added to this group in early August. I do not mean to knock any of those candidates, and I recognize that every race has its own dynamic.
However, after comparing Greenwald's race to those of other candidates, I remain puzzled that EMILY's list is not more involved in IA-04.
Cross-posted at Project Vote's Voting Matter's Blog Weekly Voting Rights News Update
By Erin Ferns
Partisan political operatives in Michigan are taking voter caging operations to depths that would surprise even the most cynical observers of American elections. If their plans are put into action, thousands of Michigan foreclosure victims may find that they will not only have lost their homes this year, but also their vote.
(Great news from Ohio! - promoted by Paul Rosenberg)
For a while now we've been keeping you informed of Project Vote's efforts to prevent a repeat of massive voter caging operations that plagued Ohio in the 2004 elections. A controversial series of vague voter challenge laws, passed by the Ohio legislature in 2006, allowed any voter's eligibility to be challenged, without notice, based on nothing more than a single piece of returned, unforwardable mail. This is the same trick the GOP used to challenge over 35,000 Ohio voters in 2004, when the outcome of the entire presidential election was riding on that state. This transparent voter suppression tactic worked in 2004, and the 2006 laws made it even easier. Project Vote has estimated that, in 2008, voter caging could result in as many as 600,000 eligible voters-mostly low-income Americans, people of color, and youths-being stricken from the Ohio voter rolls without notice or due process.
Last week, we wrote about how some reporters have stopped playing into the hands of voter suppression operatives and suddenly acted like journalists by actually investigating partisan claims of voter fraud in relation to voter registration drives. Until the Virginia press corps showed how it should be done, this kind of every-day feat of journalism had been as rare as voter fraud itself. But, if this is August of an election year, then this must be voter suppression season.
By Nathan Henderson-James and cross-posted at Project Vote's blog, Voting Matters.
A Sunday news story by Catherine Dolinsky in the Tampa Tribune highlights Florida's failure to comply with the National Voter Registration Act (NVRA) and talks extensively about the joint efforts of Project Vote, Demos, and ACORN to force Florida to follow this federal law. Dolinksy quotes ACORN's Florida Head Organizer Brian Kettering on the civil rights implications of Florida's failure,
"Hispanic and African-American communities are being deprived of the opportunity to register to vote at a higher rate than anybody else," Kettenring said. "So this is a fairness issue, but it's also a civil rights issue."
Cross-posted at Project Vote's blog, Voting Matters
Weekly Voting Rights News Update
By Erin Ferns and Nathan Henderson-James
Massive voter registration drives, recent passionate immigration debates, and the contested presidential primaries are finally bringing one of the nation's fastest growing populations into the democratic process, despite decades of low voter participation rates and recent voting rights attacks based on anti-immigrant rhetoric. Recognizing their rapidly increasing voting power - which is catching up with their "raw demographic power," particularly in the closely contested states of Florida, Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada - both presidential candidates are actively pursuing Latino voters. However, advocates caution a powerful lesson must be learned from voter suppression schemes executed in recent elections in order to ensure this former "sleeping giant" of electoral participation will have access to the polls in November, and most importantly, have their votes counted.
Yesterday's Washington Post had a front-page piece on Findlay, Ohio - the "Flag City" - where small-town voters in the ultimate swing state still believe that Barack Obama is a Muslim. What the Post didn't report is that Findlay voted 2-1 for George Bush in 2004, and in 2006 rejected Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown (who won a landslide victory statewide.) It's just the latest example of the media projecting the myth that the Presidential race is somehow close, and grasping for non-existent trends to keep it alive.
But reality says otherwise. Women and Latinos who supported Hillary Clinton are flocking to Obama, despite the narrative that Democrats are "divided." State-by-state polls consistently show Obama on his way to surpassing 270 electoral votes - with hints that November could become a rout. Even national polls with Obama ahead by double digits are dismissed as "outliers," along with the constant reminder that Michael Dukakis blew a 17-point lead (without any context of two very different candidates). The media won't admit that the Presidential race is over, and Obama is going to win.
Cross-posted at Project Vote's blog, Voting Matters
Weekly Voting Rights News Update
By Erin Ferns
In light of the U.S. Supreme Court's decision to uphold Indiana's voter ID law, the state-by-state battle to pass similar legislation has escalated with politicians seeking partisan gain furiously pushing laws that hinder access to the ballot. However, lawmakers seeking to dismantle barriers to electoral participation are just as committed to election integrity and protecting the voting rights of potentially millions of voters by calling out voter ID laws as "sheer political posturing." Meanwhile, positive measures to increase participation through Election Day Registration (EDR) are gaining ground in several states even as Iowa prepares to test-drive its new EDR law in the June 3 primary.
Who's behind the mysterious "robo-calls" that have spread misleading voter information and sown confusion and frustration among North Carolina residents over the last week?
Facing South has confirmed the source of the calls, and the mastermind is Women's Voices Women Vote, a D.C.-based nonprofit which aims to boost voting among "unmarried women voters."
What's more, Facing South has learned that the firestorm Women's Voices has ignited in North Carolina isn't the group's first brush with controversy. Women's Voices' questionable tactics have spawned thousands of voter complaints in at least 11 states and brought harsh condemnation from some election officials for their secrecy, misleading nature and likely violations of election law.
Shocking to see who is on the board of this organization -- John Podesta and one Michael Lux, a founding partner of this site.
Would love to see some commentary on this from the top.
I've been a fan of the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact, a way to get around the electoral college by simply getting enough states to elect a President with their Electoral College votes to agree to all cast their electoral votes for the winner of the national popular vote. Normally, it's thought of in terms of getting enough states to total 270 electoral votes.
This proposal has tremendous latent appeal, as the Electoral College has become quite unpopular of late. But it hasn't progressed as quickly as many, such as I, might have hoped.
"It disregards the will of a majority of Californians" [and] "is counter to the tradition of our great nation which honor states rights and the unique pride and identity of each state."
You can always count on the Gropenator for a pompous braindead quip. But, then, there's no shortage of others with similar deficits. Add to that the reluctance of battleground states to reduce their importance, and the slow progress so far becomes quite understandable.
Now, however, U.C. Davis law professor and Findlaw.com columnit Vikram David Amar has advanced a radically modified proposal that just might work. Instead of relying on enough state to cast 270 votes, why not rely on a handful of key states--perhaps as few as just three==that no one can win without? His model suggestion is Ohio, Virginia and Florida, but the precise identity of the states is less important than the concept.
He lists three barriers to the NPV compact, and argues that the 3-state solution could substantially reduce all three. Read about it on the flip....
Following the break is a complete roundup and ranking of Ohio races for the U.S. House of Representatives. I have separated them into Republican-held and Democratic-held seats and divided each into tiers. Within each tier they are ranked in order of likelihood of changing parties.
Democrats were very successful in 2006 in winning a U.S. Senate seat, four out of five statewide offices, and a net gain of seven seats in the Ohio House of Representatives, but the U.S. House races were a relative disappointment. The party gained only one seat and watched two promising races end in narrow losses after recounts. In this cycle Ohio has three open GOP seats and perhaps four or five races altogether that already look very promising, with another two or three that could be added to that list. The DCCC has already added three races to their "Red to Blue" program and is likely to take an interest in at least two more. In other words, Ohio is once again a critical congressional battleground.
Cross-posted at Project Vote's blog, Voting Matters
Weekly Voting Rights News Update
By Erin Ferns
The debates surrounding the issue of expanding or restricting access to the right to vote are in high gear this legislative session at both state and Congressional levels. Bills filed range from proposals to lower the voting age to voter ID requirements. Project Vote's Election Legislation monitoring project has identified a surge of contentious election bills this year, but whether this is simply the result of the standard impact of a presidential election year or the byproduct of increasingly fractious partisan politics, the future of the foundational right of American democracy is being set right now.
This week Project Vote examines the progress of four hot-button voting rights issues through legislatures and the media. Youth voting in primary elections, voter identification (and its harbinger; accusations of voter fraud), felon disenfranchisement, and vote caging were all in play.
Advocates concerned with any of these issues as well as the entire spectrum of voting rights and election administration legislation can follow the progress of these types of bills through 21 state legislatures at Project Vote's ElectionLegislation.org tool (registration required).
Yesterday I posted a table showing how late deciders were breaking. I noted that a consistent patter was occurring in SC, Super Tuesday and the primaries before March 4. That pattern showed Obama winning by big margins among those who decided during the last week, and among those who decided in the last three days. However, I also noted that Clinton was actually winning among those who decided on the day of the primary.
I have updated the table to reflect yesterday's primaries, and it now tells quite a story. Hillary's performance among those who decided on the day of the primary was almost identical to her performance on Super Tuesday. The key difference is Clinton won among those who decided in the last 72 hours 65-35. Obviously this is when she won Texas and built her 10 point margin in Ohio. Clinton also won among those deciding in the last week in Ohio (the sub-sample in Texas is not big enough to be significant).
These are significant findings. They strongly suggest that Clinton's attacks were decisive and validate the late movement shown in the SurveyUSA Polling of Ohio and Texas.
Later today I will post a comparison of the Mid-West primaries (Missouri, Wisconsin and Ohio) to understand the different outcomes.
States with winners are in bold. Updates will appear below the tables. New threads will be created when the comment load becomes too high. Second results thread here. Entering the night, my count shows Obama with 1,194.5 pledged delegates, and Clinton with 1,033.5
March 4th Primary and Caucus Results
State
Reporting
O %
C %
Delegates
Obama Del
Clinton Del
Ohio
92%
43%
55%
141
62
73
Rhode Island
99%
40%
58%
21
8
13
Texas Primary
97%
48%
51%
126
62
64
Texas Caucus
36%
52%
48%
67
0
0
Vermont
86%
60%
38%
15
9
6
Total
NA
NA
NA
370
141
156
Update 8--Texas Delegate Update: CBS is showing Clinton ahead in Texas delegates 78-70. However, they don't break it down by primary and caucus, so I can't gauge where the delegates are coming from. I'll try to have an update on the table soon.
Update 7--Be Patient On Delegates: Look everyone, just be patient on delegates. They take a looooong time to count. Earlier, Clinton supporters were freaking out because Obama was ahead in Ohio, and now Obama supporters are freaking out because I am showing Clinton so far ahead in Ohio. Don't worry, it will change. If you want updated Texas delegate totals, check out the Texas Secretary of State website. If you want updated Ohio delegate totals, please point me to a good link. Right now I'm using CBSnews.com, but I imagine there are better options. Just relax and be patient. I just put another homebrew in the fridge and I'm getting ready to watch Raider's of the Lost Ark. I'll be up for a long time, and I'll give you the new results when I find them.
Update 6--I'm From Pennsylvania and I Don't Have To Care About What You Think: Reading some of the comments, it never ceases to amaze me how supporters of both candidates always insist that the other candidate is getting the better media, no matter what. The same thing goes for rationalizing wins and losses, and what delegates should and should not count. Really, there is some sort of brain damage that occurs when people start getting a little too far behind a candidate.
But really, so what? I'm from Pennsylvania. In fact, I am a precinct captain and a member of the state party committee. My fellow precinct captain (division committeeperson, as we are called in Philly--better start to learn the lingo) is the ward leader, and she will attend the Friday meeting with both Obama and Clinton. In other words, right now, everyone else has to care about what I think, not the other way around. It'll be like Iowa on steroids, as a friend of mine running for delegate is fond of saying.
Update 5--Still A Volatile Campaign: Clearly, there is still a lot of volatility in the electorate. Obama won early Texas voting 50.6%--47.7%, and was tied or ahead among likely Texas voters just four days ago. However, three days of bad media for Obama, and Election Day voters seem to have swung in favor of Clinton by about ten points (and yes, the polling did see this coming tonight, within 1% of current margins). With the wild swings in this election, clearly, nothing should be taken for granted in the future. Of course, after tonight, Obama will still comfortably lead even with Florida and superdelegates included.
Update 4--Voters Don't Want the Campaign to End: Every time one candidate has had a chance to finish the other off, the voters have decided they want the campaign to continue. Clinton lost Iowa, then Obama lost New Hampshire, then Clinton lost South Carolina huge, then Obama managed to pull even on Super Tuesday, and now Clinton seems to have scratched together enough tonight to keep going.
Update 3--Clinton wins Texas primary: CBS projects Clinton as the winner of the Texas primary, at least in terms of the popular vote. No doubt she will continue on to Pennsylvania now. Still, in addition to the Texas caucus, there are also a lot of delegates still to be counted tonight. I'm in for the long haul.
Update 2--Texas margin stagnant: I've noticed that Clinton's lead in Texas has been stuck at in the 50,000s for a loooong time. Obama doesn't seem to be making up any ground, but he isn't losing any ground, either. Also, this will be the ultimate test of the caucus vs. primary difference between the two candidates.
Update: It looks like the networks caught up to me on Rhode Island. Congrats to international news orgs on staying even with a guy in his bedroom in West Philly. Also, keep in mind that the Texas primary delegates shown here are projections, not actual final delegate totals.
Third results thread here. States with winners are in bold. Updates will appear below the tables. New threads will be created when the comment load becomes too high. First results thread here. Entering the night, my count shows Obama with 1,194.5 pledged delegates, and Clinton with 1,033.5
Update 9--maybe Clinton can win the Texas primary: Austin and Dallas have reported a majority of their precincts now, and yet Clinton's lead continues to slowly eek forward. Maybe she can win the primary popular vote after all.
Update 8--Axelrod channels Mark Penn: Looks like the Obama campaign thought Clinton's strategy of saying that states don't count was such a good idea, that they would try it themselves. Axelrod:
On losing Ohio, he said it doesn't matter if the campaign didn't win since a Democrat will win Ohio regardless -- due to the economic situation there.
Bleh.
Update 7--Rhode Island Delegate Projection: Since none of the media outlets seem to be doing it, I went ahead and projected Rhode Island's delegates myself. It isn't hard. She won the at-large 3-2, the PLEOs 2-1, the seven-delegate district 4-3, and the six delegate district is either 4-2 Clinton or a 3-3 tie. I guess I should be frustrated that I had to do it myself, but that is one of the main reasons for the progressive blogosphere: we started doing what we were doing because no one else was. DIY rules!
Update 6--Texas Primary Delegate Projection: Burnt Orange Report is currently projecting the Texas primary to break 69 delegates for Obama, and 57 for Clinton. That could change, but it would be huge for Obama if it sticks.
Update 5--Clinton declares victory: Clinton declares victory. Pennsylvania, here we come. Oh wait--I'm already here. This is going to be crazy.
Update 4--on to Pennsylvania?: I have to think that with her decently sized wins in Ohio and Rhode Island tonight, Clinton will stay in no matter what happens in Texas. Rumors are swirling that some Clinton advisors want her to stop if he loses Texas, but I don't buy it. Or, at least I don't buy that as the majority opinion of the Clinton camp. Still, this is all speculation on my part, too.
Update--Clinton Wins Ohio: Took 'em long enough to finally call it. The margins in Cuyahoga just weren't there for Obama. Also, Clinton has edged ahead in the Texas primary popular vote. However, I do not expect it to last.
Update 2--Ohio delegate count explanation: Why is Obama ahead in Ohio delegates despite being down by double digits in the popular vote? First, it is because Clinton's strongest congressional districts tend to be four-delegate districts. In order to take a 3-1 advantage in those districts, she would need 62.5001% of the two-candidate vote. Generally speaking, she is instead coming in at 57%-61%. That results in a 2-2 delegate split, even in her best areas. Second, Obama's best areas, Hamilton and Cayahoga, have yet to report many votes. So, the popular vote will narrow. the still fluctuating popular vote means none of the statewide delegates can be counted yet. So, Clinton's statewide lead is not factored into the delegate count yet. Third, Obama's best districts tend to have six or more delegates in them. In order to win a six-delegate district 4-2, he only needs 58.34% of the vote. So, his bar is lower.
Update--Most cities yet to report: CNN has some great maps of Ohio and Texas that show which counties have yet to report. Generally speaking, the major cities are the places with the most outstanding votes. Cayuhuga (Cleveland) and Hamilton (Cincinnati) have 0% reporting. Dallas (where Obama lead by 30%) is at 4% reporting, Houston (where Obama leads by 24%) is at 1% reporting, and Austin (where Obama leads by 30%) is at 9% reporting. Obama also holds large leads in the counties directly surrounding those cities, and those counties have also reported few votes so far. Clinton is up by 9% in San Antonio, which is at 3% reporting.
Overall, I think Clinton looks set to win Ohio, while Obama looks set to win Texas.
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