The past week has featured a lot of wild Senate news, meriting another update in the overall forecast. From post-primary polling in Arkansas, Kentucky and Pennsylvania, to pre-primary polling in California and Nevada, to the Blumenthal scandal in Connecticut, and now to Dino Rossi's likely entry into the Washington Senate campaign against Patty Murray, quite a few things have changed.
Oddly enough, the changes appear to almost precisely cancel each other out, resulting in virtually no change from the May 19th update. Democrats experienced marked improvement in California, Pennsylvania and Nevada, which offset their backslides in Washington and Kentucky. Overall, the last time Democrats were in a better position than this was on February 11th.
Note that I am now projecting J.D. Hayworth as the winner of the Republican nomination in Arizona, despite John McCain holding a 11.7% lead over the last three polls of that primary. The reason for this is that a lead of 11.7% is a pretty bad starting point for an incumbent, much less a former Republican presidential nominee. With numbers like that, my gut tells me there is no way McCain survives the anti-incumbent and teabagger waves this year.
Thirteen campaigns, from Wisconsin through Kentucky in the chart below, are really and truly competitive right now. If Democrats were to somehow sweep them all, they would actually gain a seat, and take 60 going into 2011. If Republicans were to capture them all, they would take a 53-47 majority in the Senate. This means both that control of the Senate is in play, and also that a huge amount will depend on the quality of individual campaigns from here on out.
Senate forecast overview, May 24th
Dems
GOP
Not up for election
41
23
Incumbent party safe
6
10
Sub-total
47
33
Current polling
5.08
14.92
Projected total
52.08
47.92
Notes: Because they caucus with Senate Democrats, Independents Bernie Sanders and Joe Lieberman are considered Democrats. For now, Charlie Crist is considered more likely to caucus with Republicans, and as such is included in the GOP's overall total.
The 20 Senate seats that might switch partisan control The chart below looks only at a broadly defined definition of "competitive" campaigns. Campaigns where incumbent party currently leads by 18.5% or more are considered "safe" and not listed.
Rossi is still considering a run against Murray. If Rossi were to enter the campaign, it would start precisely even, according to the four most recent polls.
As of last Tuesday, Senate polling currently projected to 51.83 Senate seats for Democrats after the November election. However, that projection was based on a 100% chance of victory in Washington State. While this poll does not change that victory percentage right now (no other poll has the campaign so close), it does suggest that this could be a difficult seat for Democrats to hold. This is especially the case if Rossi runs.
With Washington state in play, Republicans would have an outside chance of winning the Senate. It would require winning 17 of the 18 campaigns listed here. While this is certainly a tall order, it is not impossible. The Senate is no longer absolutely secure for Democrats in the 2010 elections.
