Congressional campaigns are making their final advertising purchases over the next couple of days. With a huge Democratic congressional wave possible, let’s help out some of the better ones by pushing the Better Democrats page over 500 donors.
Already, we have shattered our $50,000 fundraising goal, and are only 19 18 15 14 13 donors from 500. Let’s do this, and let’s get it done quickly. If you haven’t already, find your favorite candidate on the Better Democrats, and give them $5 right now. It may not sound like much, but right at the end, every little bit helps.
… (from Matt) Ok, who’s going to be the 500th? Only 7 more to go…
… And 504. Wow. Let’s keep it going til midnight and see how far we get. Come on, throw in $5. Seriously, every candidate right now is putting their last points on TV and scrounging for all the cash they can get. $5.
Now, some experts are backing up our arguments, pointing out that 60 Democratic Senators is simply not a magic number for an Obama administration:
Experts in both political parties say that a majority in the high 50s would clear the path for a lot of legislation.
“I think that a 58- or 57-vote Democratic majority in the Senate would be able to get cloture in a very large number of instances where the current Senate was not able to, and that’s simply because of the 42 or 43 Republican senators that will come back,” said Scott Lilly, a senior fellow at the liberal Center for American Progress and a former House Appropriations Committee staff director. “Those are the guys who are going to be under real pressure to show they can cooperate to move an agenda.”
“Any Democrat[ic] pick-ups beyond 55 essentially get you to 60 on almost any issue without exception, barring card-check and right to work,” a Republican strategist said, referring to two hot-button workplace issues that pit labor against business. “Whether you have replaced a Smith with a Merkley, a Collins with an Allen, or a Smith and a Collins remain, the ability of Reid to add them to his total to be able to invoke cloture, and the challenge for McConnell to keep them with him at 41 to beat cloture, is easy for Reid and increasingly hard for McConnell.”
This is essentially the same argument I have been making for some time. A closer look at voting patterns in the Senate reveals that 56 Democrats is a magic number for most legislation already on the table. Beyond that, 58 plus Lieberman and Specter would be enough for one of the four major positive feedback loops: the Employee Free Choice Act. We should be able to pass two other feedback loops, election reform and media reform, with 56 votes. The fourth positive progressive feedback loop, immigration reform, does not appear viable unless we win something like 15 seats. Maybe we can pull that one off in 2011-2012.
Leaving my bean counting tendencies aside for the moment, I want to return to Matt’s basic argument. Sixty Democratic votes in the Senate doesn’t mean a progressive governing majority has arrived if there is no progressive leadership or voting block in the Senate. Remember, the majority of Senate Democrats voted for the authorization for the use of military force in Iraq, for example. Also, large numbers of Senate Democrats, in some cases a majority, voted for blank check war funding, retroactive immunity for telecoms, and the bailout package. It is important to disabuse ourselves of the notion that only Republicans are blocking a progressive legislative agenda. Sixty votes is not a substitute for progressive leadership, and focuses only on the “more” side of “more and better Democrats.” It would be nice, but there is nothing magical about the number.
Natasha and I are deep in the throes of moving, so I won’t be able to blog much until later tonight. For now, however, here is a polling round-up thread:
Presidential National ARG: +5, up 1%
Battleground +13, up 5
Gallup expanded: +10, even
Gallup traditional: +6, down 1
Hotline +6, even
Rasmussen +5, even (though really +6 and up 1)
Research 2000 +11, down 1
Zogby +6, up 2
Obama’s national lead now 8.5%, largest ever. IBD and LA Times later today…
Presidential States CO: Obama 52%–43% McCain (Q-poll)
CO: Obama 47%–43% McCain (Suffolk)
MI: Obama 54%–38% McCain (Q-poll)
MN: Obama 51%–40% McCain (Q-poll)
NC: Obama 49%–46% McCain (PPP)
OK: McCain 63%–32% Obama (why is there a tracking poll in OK?)
OH: Obama 50%–45% McCain (Survey USA) Ohio is again lean-Obama. OR: Obama 57%–40% McCain (Survey USA)
PA: Obama 55%–40% McCain (Survey USA)
PA: Obama 51%–38% McCain (Tracking)
WI: Obama 54%–37% McCain (Q-poll)
Senate Colorado: Udall (D) 45%–34% Schaffer (R)
Colorado: Udall 54%–40% Schaffer. Goodnight Irene. Minnesota: Franken 38%, Coleman 36%, Barkley 18%. I think we are going to win this one. Franken leads by 4% across the last three polls. The large 3rd party performances makes the campaign very unstable, however. North Carolina: Hagen 46%–44% Dole. Another state where we look good for the win
House First, three new polls from the DCCC… WA-08: Burner (D) 49%–44% Reichert (R-inc). Yes!! Darcy leads! It is true that other polls show Reichert ahead, but the recent one showing him up by 8% had Obama only up 4%. In a district like this, Obama should lead by around 13%. This campaign is probably tied. Contribute to Darcy here. NJ-03: Alder (D) 38%–34% Myers (R)
NJ-07: Stender (D) 40%–31% Lance (R) (8% to a 3rd party candidate)
And a couple more from other pollsters… NV-02: Heller (R) 51%–38% Derby (D) Every rose has it’s thorn… PA-03: Dahlkemper (D) 48%–41% English (R-inc) This one looks like a lock.
Amidst justified worries that passing a $700 billion bailout bill would significantly reduce the value and power of Barack Obama’s first term as President, it also turns out that the next Congress next administration will actually have enormous, unexpected, immediate power in another area: the 12 departmental appropriations bills that, along with the budget, constitute the heart of federal governance. This is because a continuing resolution has just been passed that delays the necessary passage of those twelve bills off until March 6th, six full weeks into the next Presidency and eight weeks into the next Congress. Emphasis mine:
Congress over the weekend approved and delivered to President Bush a continuing resolution that would fund the federal government at current levels for more than five months and authorize $6.5 billion of bond-related community development funds. But a multibillion-dollar economic stimulus package that was approved in the House Friday seemed unlikely to get full congressional approval as of yesterday.
The Senate approved the continuing resolution, which was attached to a homeland security appropriations bill, by a roll call vote of 78 to 12 on Saturday. The measure had passed in the House by a 370 to 58 vote on Wednesday.
The bill is expected to be signed into law by the president.
The resolution continues appropriations for all agencies and activities that would be covered by regular fiscal year 2009 appropriations until enactment of such appropriations or March 6, whichever occurs first. The measure is necessary because Congress has failed to pass any of the 12 individual appropriations bills for the next fiscal year.
The bailout, as currently formulated, will probably put a damper on increasing social investment programs next year, such as the economic stimulus package. However, because of this continuing resolution, if we have the White House–U.S. Senate–U.S. House trifecta in January, that trifecta will have immediate authority over twelve departmental appropriations bills that normally would have handled this year, and thus under normal circumstances needed to go through Bush. So, this is a case where we have done a good job of reducing Bush’s power, and increasing that of the next administration.
Along with the next President, the next Congress will have an immediate say on some extremely important legislation. This is one good reason why we need better members of Congress, and why you should donate to Open Left’s Better Democrats page. Hopefully, if there is one thing that the bailout fight has shown, we are not electing people to deal with abstract problems. Huge amounts of money–four times the amount of the bailout–are at stake every year, and making sure that money is spent in a productive, progressive manner requires having progressives in Congress and the White House. Help put some more progressives in the White House, and help us meet our goal of 100 donors today. Right now, we stand at 3241! donors, so let’s keep that momentum going.
Democratic Held, Uncompetitive Democratic Locks (11): Arkansas (Pryor), Delaware (Biden), Illinois (Durbin), Iowa (Harkin), Louisiana (Landrieu), Massachusetts (Kerry), Michigan (Levin), Montana (Baucus), Rhode Island (Reed), South Dakota (Johnson), West Virginia (Rockerfeller)
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I know that the Senate forecast isn’t exactly the biggest news right now, but sometimes I find crawling into numbers the best way to feel better. Analysis and methodology in the extended entry.
STATE BLOGS
