This is the first part of a series of posts analyzing the swing state Colorado. The second part can be found here.
Starting six years ago, a massive Democratic wave swept through the state of Colorado. Starting with the election of former Senator Ken Salazar, the Democratic Party took control of almost every state office there was to take. The results of this transformation are pictured in the table above.
This is the last part of a series of posts analyzing the swing state Virginia, which aims to offer some concluding thoughts. The previous parts can be found starting here.
Conclusions
As a state, Virginia’s population has always been located in three metropolitan areas: the Northern Virginia suburbs south of Washington D.C., Richmond and its suburbs, and the communities surrounding Hampton Roads. Together these three places compose more than half of Virginia’s electorate:
In all three metropolitan areas, Democrats have been improving their margins.
This is the second part of a series analyzing the swing state Pennsylvania. The next part can be found here.
Like Florida, and unlike Ohio, Pennsylvania’s political geography can be divided into three. The industrial southwest is reddening, the populous southeast is bluing, and Pennsyltucky remains, as James Carville memorably described it, “Alabama without the blacks.” (Actually, Pennsyltucky is a fair bit less conservative.)
The following section will concentrate on Philadelphia, the region upon which Democrats draw the most votes.
Last year, California sent more Obama campaign volunteers to the swing states than any other part of the country – in part due to a website called “Travel for Change.” Now, the same activists who organized that effort are working to send volunteers to Maine – where in 55 days, voters will determine the fate of marriage equality. The “No on 1” campaign has welcomed volunteers who can travel to Maine and commit to working for at least a week. Now, thanks to “Travel for Change,” supporters can donate money or airline miles to make that possible. Many Californians dejected at the passage of Proposition 8 want to help, and with “Travel for Change” they now can get the resources to make a real difference in Maine. As the right treats Maine as ground zero in their effort to halt the march towards marriage equality, defeating Question 1 on November 3rd can have a national impact in the fight for same-sex marriage.
DavidNYC points election junkies to a new report that shows blue states will lose fewer seats in 2012 than previously thought. This shift has some very positive implications for the 2012 swing state map:
Obama 262, Republican 254, Toss-up 22 Electoral College 2012, tied popular vote projection
Solid Obama (PVI of D +6.0 or greater): 217 electoral Votes
Lean Obama (PVI of D +2.3 to D +5.9): 45 electoral Votes
Toss-up (PVI of D +2.2 to R +2.2): 22 Electoral Votes
Lean Republican (PVI of R +2.3 to R +5.9): 47 Electoral Votes
Solid Republican (PVI of R +6.0 or greater): 200 electoral Votes
In the previous projection, Obama needed Virginia in order to win re-election. However, with this new projection, Obama can win re-election by holding the Kerry and / or Gore states plus only Colorado and Nevada. With this new projection (using the far left-hand column in the new report) Virginia, Ohio, and Florida are all unnecessary, and Obama would only have to hold states that he won by 8.95% or more (by comparison, Obama won Virginia by only 6.30%). What follows is still a victory map, and not only for 2012, but also for 2016 and 2020:
Blue 271-267 Red Minimum victory map, estimated 2012-2020 electoral college
Looking at the two maps together, all but three of the swing states Democrats need to win according to the victory map are trending toward Democrats over the long-term. The three exceptions are Minnesota, New Hampshire, and Pennsylvania, as John Kerry did better in these states relative to his national popular vote share than did Barack Obama. From 2012-2020, holding those three states will be the key to the Presidency for Democrats.
Electoral College 2012, tied popular vote projection
Obama 258, Republican 258, Toss-up 22
Solid Obama (PVI of D +6.0 or greater): 213 Electoral Votes
Lean Obama (PVI of D +2.3 to D +5.9): 45 Electoral Votes
Toss-up (PVI of D +2.2 to R +2.2): 22 Electoral Votes
Lean Republican (PVI of R +2.3 to R +5.9): 47 Electoral Votes
Solid Republican (PVI of R +6.0 or greater): 211 Electoral Votes
This map does not project demographic changes in given states, and assumes an even popular vote. “PVI” refers to “partisan voting index,” or the degree to which a given state’s popular vote is projected to be different from the national popular vote. The 2.2% toss-up / lean line and the 6.0% lean / solid line were derived from previous polling research, which was reinforced in 2008 (more on that later).
This map forecasts an almost precisely even Electoral College, with Virginia as the ultimate swing state. Whoever would win Virginia’s 13 electoral votes would reach 271 electoral votes, thus winning the election no matter what happens in Colorado. Virginia’s preliminary Partisan Voting Index is Republican +0.86%, but ongoing demographic changes in the state, particularly in Northern Virginia, probably would render it an even contest by that point.
As already noted, this map is crude, and does not take inevitable fluctuations of demographics, organizing, and candidate appeal into account. Still, if Virginia is the number one swing state in the event of a close 2012 presidential election, the Virginia Governor’s campaign in 2009 becomes a lot more interesting. Apropos, this first poll on the campaign was released today. It revealed, unsurprisingly, a very close campaign for the seat to be vacated by Tim Kaine.
Obama at 338 minimum: Obama wins the Kerry states plus Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Mexico, Ohio, and Virginia.
Three toss-ups: Missouri, North Carolina and North Dakota are the only remaining toss-ups, in that polls yet to be released could still flip those states.
Four close states for McCain: Arizona, Georgia, Indiana and Montana are projected for McCain, even though there is still a small chance for Obama to win one or more of those four states.
This projection comes from looking at the simple mean of polling conducted during the final week of the campaign. I stand by this methodology despite it’s simplicity, and even to a certain extent because of it’s simplicity. I have come to believe that forecasting close (within single digits), statewide, general elections accurately is not the sole province of statistical wizards and those who wish to argue with polls. Instead, I believe it is something anyone can do as long as they have an Internet connection, and are willing to not argue with the polls they don’t like. As long as you have the courage to look at all of the recent polls and avoid adding any special sauce of your own, then you can project close (within single digits), statewide, general elections as accurately as any “professional” forecaster around.
On November 5th, we will know if I am correct. However, if I turn out to be wrong, and Obama scores a larger than expected victory of around 400 electoral votes, the reason will be due to cell-phone only households. Within the last twenty-four hours, both fivethirtyeight.com and Pollster.com have released studies indicating that Obama leads by about 4% more in polls that include cell-phone only households, than he does in polls that do not. A shift of that magnitude has the potential not only to push all three of the toss-up states to Obama, but also all four of the narrow McCain states. This could give Obama up to 406 electoral votes, and a national popular vote victory of 9-10%.
Now, I’m sticking with the “use all polls” and “don’t argue with polls” philosophy, and instead projecting Obama to win by around 7% nationally and to pull in between 340-360 electoral votes. With only one day left, I will not abandon my old mantra, “the truth is always in between.” However, this cell-phone only discrepancy should still give hope to those of you working in those four “Lean McCain” states. Keep in mind that there could also be a discrepancy in the other direction due to a lingering “Bradley effect,” that might push Obama’s victory down to around 5% or so, and which could still tip Florida and / or Ohio toward McCain. There is no circumstance I can forsee where Obama drops below 291 electoral votes, meaning the Kerry states plus Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, New Mexico and Virginia.
I am forecasting 7% and 340-360, but I can see reasonable people pegging the range anywhere from 4% to 10%, with electoral votes ranging from 291-406 (or even 407, with Nebraska-02). What is your final prediction? Let’s lay it on the line in the comments.
Update 3:00 p.m.: New Rasmussen swing state polls added. New Strategic Vision Pennsylvania added. New PPP Missouri added. Links can be found in quick hits.
Update 6:00 p.m.: Survey USA North Carolina, along with PPP Indiana and Nevada.
Update 8:00 p.m.: Strategic Vision Florida, Georgia and Ohio included.
Update 9:00 p.m.: New Florida, Georgia, Maine and Washington polls added.
Update 1:00 a.m.: New Florida, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Virginia polls added.
Update 10:00 a.m. Tuesday: Final update completed. North Carolina flips to McCain.
Dark Blue (273): Obama +6.0% or more
Lean Blue (18): Obama +2.3%-+5.9%
White / Toss-up (87): Obama +2.2% to McCain +2.2%
Lean Red (28): McCain +2.3%-+5.9%
Dark Red (132): McCain +6.0% or more
Relevant States Chart
Polls 10/28-11/02 States not shown are further either direction
Dark Blue (252): Obama +6.0% or more
Lean Blue (66): Obama +2.3%-+5.9%
White / Toss-up (60): Obama +2.2% to McCain +2.2%
Lean Red (29): McCain +2.3%-+5.9%
Dark Red (131): McCain +6.0% or more
Relevant States Chart
Polls 10/26-11/01 States not shown are further either direction
Since Chris has put out his predictions today (here and here), I think I should follow up with my own assessment, just to get you really jazzed. Some caveats on my predictions:
I, of course, look at numbers- polling, early voting, etc.- when making my predictions. But I also rely on instinct and emotion, which is why I would never suggest people make big bets on my predictions. There are certain races where my head tells me one thing but my heart absolutely won’t let me predict a loss.
I find myself torn between not wanting to be too optimistic on the one hand, and on the other hand thinking all this enthusiasm and field work is going to allow us to really roll up some big numbers. My predictions here are more the former than the latter.
Here is my final assessment on the state of the elections right now:
Dark Blue (291): Obama +6.0% or more
Lean Blue (62): Obama +2.3%-+5.9%
White / Toss-up (25): Obama +2.2% to McCain +2.2%
Lean Red (29): McCain +2.3%-+5.9%
Dark Red (131): McCain +6.0% or more
Swing State Chart
Polls 10/23-10/29 States not shown are further either direction
Update 7:45: Sorry for the delay in the update. New polls for Indiana, Iowa, Montana, New Hampshire, North Carolina and Wisconsin added. Next update at 3:00 a.m.
Update 1:30 p.m.: New polls from Colorado (2), Florida, Indiana, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia (2) added. Also, in order to avoid a lag between state and national polls, I have only included polls taken entirely from October 23-29. Also in an attempt to reduce lag time, I have allowed for only one poll to be included in the averages.
As with yesterday, I will update the forecast twice during the day as new state polls come in. Methodology and analysis in the extended entry.
I just got back from Broad Street, and I have never, ever seen anything like this. After an utterly insane bar where the only way to keep standing was because there was no way to fall over (too many people), my friends and I started walking up Broad Street starting at Pine. We only got two blocks, to Locust, before you couldn’t walk any further. For those of you not from Philly, that is four blocks from City Hall:
Humanity was in all directions. Hundreds of people were above us, standing on newsstands, lampposts, subway entrances and window ledges. People were setting off fireworks, hugging and high-fiving anyone in sight, and futilely trying to send text messages (it took me five tries just to send one). We walked around City Hall, and it went on in every direction. Twenty-six blocks later, horns were still honking. Hundreds of thousands of people. Larger than any gathering I have ever attended, including any and all protests.
And people were happy. Different races, different genders, different ages–everyone has smiling and hugging and cheering and slapping hands. And more than a few people started chanting “O-bam-a” right along with “Let’s Go Phill-ies.” Time and time again I heard “let’s do this again on Tuesday.”
And so, the largest city in a swing state in the entire nation went nuts. Our first win since 1983! Some called it the Curse Of Willy Penn, but maybe it was the Curse Of Reagan. We–the largest city in a swing state–hadn’t won a title since his approval ratings recovered in late 1983. But we won tonight.
My head is spinning. Let’s do it again on Tuesday.
Current Forecaster Consensus: Obama 353, McCain 157, Toss-up 28
With six days and a couple hours before the polls start to close, I thought it would be helpful to put together a consensus of the six “small media” polling aggregation sites I frequent the most: Electoral-Vote.com, fivethirtyeight.com, Pollster.com, Open Left (of course), Real Clear Politics, and TPM Election Central. There is a consensus around the current status of 46 states, plus D.C. Here are the only four states where these six websites do not agree with each other:
Indiana: 538, Pollster, Open Left and TPM show McCain slightly ahead in Indiana, but Real Clear Politics and Electoral-Vote show Obama slightly ahead.
Missouri: 538, Pollster and RCP all have Obama slightly ahead in Missouri, Electoral-Vote and Open Left show an exact tie, TPM shows McCain slightly ahead.
Montana: 538, Pollster, RCP and TPM show McCain ahead in Montana, but Electoral-Vote and Open Left show an exact tie.
North Dakota: Open Left, Pollster and TPM show Obama slightly ahead. Electoral-Vote shows an exact tie. 538 and RCP show McCain ahead.
That’s it. These six forecasters agree on every other state. North Carolina is on the edge, and losing it would knock Obama down to 338 electoral votes. In the next closest blue state, Florida, Obama leads by 2.7% to 3.4% in according to every forecaster. After that, in the remaining 311 blue electoral votes, Obama leads by at least 5.8% in every state according to every forecaster. This is what I meant earlier today about all forecasters showing a state by state Obama lead that is both deep and broad.
So, no matter which forecaster you choose, Obama has 311 solid electoral votes with only six days remaining. Is it closer? Sure, a little bit. Is Obama still solidly ahead? Yep.
