Senate forecast update: Even with Rossi's entry, Dems still in best position since early February

by: Chris Bowers

Mon May 24, 2010 at 18:30

• Total Democratic seats: 52.08 (rounds to 52, down 6.92 from current)
  
• Change from May 19: Democrats up 0.01 seats.

Oddly enough, the changes appear to almost precisely cancel each other out, resulting in virtually no change from the May 19th update.  Democrats experienced marked improvement in California, Pennsylvania and Nevada, which offset their backslides in Washington and Kentucky.   Overall, the last time Democrats were in a better position than this was on February 11th.

Note that I am now projecting J.D. Hayworth as the winner of the Republican nomination in Arizona, despite John McCain holding a 11.7% lead over the last three polls of that primary.  The reason for this is that a lead of 11.7% is a pretty bad starting point for an incumbent, much less a former Republican presidential nominee.  With numbers like that, my gut tells me there is no way McCain survives the anti-incumbent and teabagger waves this year.

Thirteen campaigns, from Wisconsin through Kentucky in the chart below, are really and truly competitive right now.  If Democrats were to somehow sweep them all, they would actually gain a seat, and take 60 going into 2011.  If Republicans were to capture them all, they would take a 53-47 majority in the Senate.  This means both that control of the Senate is in play, and also that a huge amount will depend on the quality of individual campaigns from here on out.

Senate forecast overview, May 24th

	Dems	GOP
Not up for election	41	23
Incumbent party safe	6	10
Sub-total	47	33
Current polling	5.08	14.92
Projected total	52.08	47.92

Notes: Because they caucus with Senate Democrats, Independents Bernie Sanders and Joe Lieberman are considered Democrats.  For now, Charlie Crist is considered more likely to caucus with Republicans, and as such is included in the GOP's overall total.

The 20 Senate seats that might switch partisan control
The chart below looks only at a broadly defined definition of "competitive" campaigns.  Campaigns where incumbent party currently leads by 18.5% or more are considered "safe" and not listed.

State	Democrat	Republican	Margin	Current Dem Win %
Wisconsin	Feingold	Wall*	D 11.5	100%
Connecticut	Blumenthal	McMahon	D 9.0	99%
CT	Blumenthal	Simmons	D 17.0	100%
CT	R Primary	McMahon	Even
California	Boxer	Campbell	D 4.7	92%
CA	Boxer	Fiorina	D 8.3	98%
CA	Boxer	DeVore	D 8.7	98%
CA	R Primary	Campbell	+6.0
Washington	Murray	Rossi*	D 2.0	77%
Ohio	Fisher	Portman	R 0.3	45%
Pennnsylvania	Sestak	Toomey	R 1.2	32%
Colorado	Bennet	Norton	R 2.0	23%
CO	Romanoff	Norton	R 2.5	20%
CO	Bennet	Buck	R 0.5	30%
CO	Romanoff	Buck	R 1.0	33%
CO	D Primary	Bennet	+10.5
CO	R Primary	Norton	+11.0
Nevada	Reid	Lowden	R 3.3	15%
NV	Reid	Tarkanian	R 4.0	11%
NV	Reid	Angle	R 5.5	6%
NV	R Primary	Lowden	+6.0
North Carolina	Marshall	Burr	R 4.5	9%
NC	Cunningham	Burr	R 9.0	1%
NC	D Primary	Marshall	+2.5
Arizona	Glassman	Hayworth	R 4.7	8%
AZ	Glassman	McCain	R 19.3	0%
AZ	R Primary	McCain	+11.7
Illinois	Giannoulis	Kirk	R 6.5	4%
Missouri	Carnahan	Blunt	R 7.0	3%
Kentucky	Conway	Paul	R 9.7	1%
Iowa	Conlin*	Grassley	R 11.0	0%
New Hampshire	Hodes*	Ayotte*	R 11.0	0%
Indiana	Ellsworth	Coats	R 15.5	0%
Florida	M 17.8	R 31.5	C 34.3	0%
Arkansas	Halter	Boozman	R 20.0	0%
AR	Lincoln	Boozeman	R 23.0	0%
AR	D Primary	Halter	+2.0
Delaware	Coons	Castle*	R 20.5	0%
North Dakota	Potter	Hoeven	R 47.0	0%

Notes in the extended entry.

1. The methodology can be found here.

2. * = Faces primary challenge, but currently either clear favorite or no polling available.
   

3. The following polls are used in the above averages are not listed in the various links to Pollster.com and Wikipedia.:
   
   • Arizona includes Research 2000 poll from early May.

   • Connecticut includes recent Blumenthal internal poll

   • Illinois includes early May poll from We Ask America.

   • Kentucky includes recent Research 200 poll

   • Nevada numbers include the recent PPP poll on Republican primary, and the FMMM poll for general election.

   • North Carolina includes May 5th Rasmussen poll.

   • Washington includes recent Washington University poll.