Update–The AP has declared Elaine Marshall the winner in North Carolina! Head over to her website, and sign up for her campaign!
It’s primary day in Utah, and run-off day Mississippi and the Carolinas. Politco has all of the results, while Swing State Project has good updates and resources.
The key result so far is in North Carolina, where progressive champion Elaine Marshall is crushing DSCC backed cal Cunningham. With over 30% of the vote in, Marshall leads by a whopping 62%-38%. Awesome! (Update–The AP calls it for Marhsall!)
Another result of note is in the GOP run-off in SC-04. Incumbent Bob Inglis is currently losing by an absurd 72%–28%, with over 30% in. That has to be the most lopsided result in a primary ever, at least for an incumbent who has no obvious scandals.
Finally, in Utah, check out the Democratic primary in UT-02, where progressive Claudia Wright is challenging Blue Dog Jim Matheson. Wright is unlikely to win, but a strong showing would still be a positive sign for future primary challenges.
This is an open thread to discuss the results. Talk amongst yourselves.
Update 11:02: AP calls Arkansas for Blanche Lincoln. Suck. No more vote updates below. New thread coming soon-ish.
Arkansas Senate, 84.5% precincts reporting
Halter
Lincoln
%
48.2%
51.8%
Votes
109,465
117,782
Update 10:40 Thinking ahead for a moment, the questions now are if we still get the good derivatives language, if a message has been sent anyway, and how we prevent voting problems in the future.
Update 10:38 And, its over. Turns out Pulaski was a mistake. Lincoln is going to win tonight, and then get creamed in November.
Update 10:35 Swing State model now projects Lincoln by only 1.1% due to massive 18-20% pro-Halter swing in Pulaski county. Some think the Pulaski report might be an error since it is so against the trend tonight. A wild an developing story…
Update 10:25: Halter moves into the lead, at least for now.
Update 10:12: The swing is pro-Lincoln by just under 3% Halter is improving, however. Also, even with a swing to Lincoln, Halter can still win. Taniel explains how on Twitter:
Only way for Halter to win despite these shifts is if turnout balance has shifted in favor of his counties. Which we can’t know easily.
Update 9:48: Swing State model slowly improving for Halter, but he is still behind where he needs to be by about 4.8%.
Update 9:11 pm: Absentees compose almost all of the early voting so far. Lincoln appears to have won that group narrowly.
*****
Personally, I will also be following the Republican Senate primaries in Nevada (10 pm eastern) and California (8 pm pacific), as well as the potential teabagger upsets of incumbent House Republicans in SC-04 and NJ-07 (polls already closed in both campaigns. You can discuss any campaign you like in the comments.
Four incumbents have already been defeated for renomination this year. That number should go up tonight.
Clean sweep in the four big races: Sestak, Conway and Critz all win. Run-off in Arkansas. An amazing night! The energy is with Dems and progs again!
Update–runoff in Arkansas!: News orgs call a run-off for Arkansas Senate. A clean sweep tonight!
Update–looking good for runoff in Arkansas, but… While Arkansas looks good for a runoff based on topline the returns so far, Blanche Lincoln’s former congressional district has the fewest votes in in so far. So, it looks pretty good, but it’s not over yet.
Update: Republican Burns concedes in PA-12: Dems hold Murtha’s seat in Western PA. This is shaping up to be a decent night! (meltdown in #finreg notwithstanding, merf)
Update: Oh yeah, Go sign up for Joe Sestak’s campaign! Let’s win the general election!
Update–Sestak wins Pennsylvania: AP calls it for Sestak. Woo-hoo! No further updates on those returns tonight, either.
Update–Conway wins in Kentucky: Jack Conway, the more progressive of the two major Democratic candidates in Kentucky, has narrowly held on to win.
Update–Sestak is gonna win: Sestak has taken the lead, and is going to win this. Based on where voted have come in so far, he might win by a lot. Specter’s base in Philly over-represented in total results so far, and yet Sestak leads anyway.
Update–Rand Paul wins Republican primary for Kentucky Senate: To no one’s surprise.
****
Arkansas Senate, Democratic primary, 49.8% reporting News orgs call runoff. will happen on June 8th. No more updates on results for this campaign tonight
Halter
Lincoln
Morrison
42.2%
43.6%
14.3%
Pennsylvania Senate, Democratic primary, 63.0% reporting Sestak wins. No more results updated for this campaign.
Sestak
Specter
52.6%
47.4%
Kentucky Senate, Democratic primary, 98.0% reporting Conway wins, results will no longer be updated
Conway
Mongiardo
44.3%
42.8%
Pennsylvania 12th, Special election, 40% reporting Republican Burns has conceded to Democrat Critz. No more updates on this campaign.
Kentucky update: AP calls Kentucky Republican Senate primary for Rand Paul. On the Democratic side, Jack Conway holds a strong lead of 13.2% with 37% reporting.
****
This is the first thread to discuss tonight’s election returns.
Live returns Politico has put together an excellent returns page for all elections, with easy navigation. Bookmark it.
No exit polls: There will be no exit polls tonight, in any state.
Turnout light in Pennsylvania: Bad news for Specter, who needed less-engaged voters who had not heard of Sestak to turnout:
But Charlie Young, a spokesman for the Secretary of State, says turnout in the state, where the weather is bad today, is low.
“It’s relatively light, with some higher concentrations out in the areas that have the special election for Murtha’s seat,” he says, referring to the battle for Pennsylvania’s 12th district in the southwestern part of the state.
Philadelphia’s turnout, he says, is even lighter. “There are no lines anywhere,” he says.
This is born out by an official with a major union backing Specter, who says union hands doing get-out-the-vote work are reporting back that “turnout is abysmal.”
“People aren’t fired up about Specter,” the official conceded. “It’s low statewide, and then in Philly it especially sucks.”
Early returns will likely favor Specter: Philadelphia, which is strong for Specter, usually posts its returns earlier than the rest of Pennsylvania. As such, Specter should take an early lead, with Sestak gaining the rest of the night.
This is an open thread. I will be live-blogging returns and numbers from Arkansas and Pennsylvania starting at around 8:30 pm eastern.
North Carolina Senate: Elaine Marshall handily defeated Cal Cunningham, 37%–27%. However, since she did not each 40.0%+1, there will be a June 22nd run-off between the two. This isn’t necessarily a negative–it will keep attention focused on the two Democrats, help both raise name ID and improve their campaigns. Open Left will also be active on behalf of Marshall during the run-off.
North Carolina house primaries Larry Kissell (NC-08) and Heath Shuler (NC-11), who both voted against health care and other Democratic agenda items, faced surprisingly stiff primary challenges. Nancy Shakir and Alixa Wilson, each of whom had raised exactly zero dollars by March 31st, took 37% and 39% of the vote against Kissell and Shuler respectively.
The lesson is that both Shuler and Kissell could have been defeated by progressive primary challengers, if either had faced a real campaign. Just being Vichy Democrats cost them 40% of the vote. We have a larger base than we think, and should be playing in more primaries.
The rest: Dan Coats won the Republican primary in Indiana, and will likely be the next Senator from that state. The tea party strikes out again, but might have had a chance if they hadn’t split their vote.
Lee Fisher unfortunately won the Democratic primary in Ohio, and is in a virtual dead-heat against Republican nominee Rob Portman.
On a lighter note, Republican Congressman Dan Burton (IN-05) won renomination with 29.7% of the vote. If that isn’t a record low for an incumbent winning renomination, it has to be close.
This is an open thread to discuss the results of tonight’s primary elections in Indiana, North Carolina, and Ohio. All polls close in Indiana at 7:00 p.m. eastern (some close at 6pm), while all polls close in Ohio and North Carolina at 7:30 p.m.
The premier campaign tonight, bar none, is the North Carolina Democratic Senate primary. The big question is not just whether Elaine Marshall or Cal Cunningham will receive the most votes, but if the winner will receive the 40%+1 necessary to avoid a June 8th runoff.
The Illinois Senate primary is tonight. Polls close at 7 p.m. central time (8 p.m. eastern, 5 p.m. pacific). There are a lot of races taking place but, as a D.C. focused blogger, I will only be providing updates on the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate. Check out Swing State Project and Archpundit for the nitty gritty on the other campaigns.
Vote margin: Giannoulias +34,822 (going up–this is over. No further updates.)
Update (9:12 eastern)–Looking like Giannoulias: Smart observation from alex in the comments:
it’s hard to see a path for victory for Hoffman. He’s not doing well enough in the collar counties to offset Chicago city and he’s doing mostly poorly outside of Chicagoland at the moment.
Hoffman isn’t strong enough in the city of Chicago to stage a comeback there. His weakness among African-Americans, and downstate, appears ready to sink him.
Very worried about Giannoulias making himself, and the party, look bad with his banking ties. He may be the more lefty than Hoffman, but I can’t say I was pulling for him tonight. Ties to a banking scandal are just terrible right now.
Update 2–A look at the Illinois 10th. Worth noting, from minvis in the comments:
But the House 10th District is shaping up to be a good chance at a pickup for the Democrats. This is Kirk’s old House seat. The moderate Republican, Elizabeth Coulson, is losing substantially to a more conservative Republican. This is a slightly Democratic leaning district nationally. It voted for Gore, Kerry and Obama the last 3 presidential elections. Whoever wins the Democratic race, Seals is leading slightly right now, will more closely align with the electorate there than a right-wing Republican.
Good note. Too add, IL-10 actually isn’t slightly lean Democratic–it is D+6 in Cook PVI, which makes it roughly 12 points more favorable to Democrats than the national picture. It is the second most Democratic district in the country held by a Republican (Delaware at-large is #1 in this category).
Follow the results of the House race here. I am a little dubious about Seals–pretty sure he isn’t particularly progressive. This is also his third run, and he failed to take the seat during two very Democratic years. On the other hand, I know nothing about Julie Hamos, his main opponent.
With 4 precincts left to report, Seals leads by 662 votes. Looks like Seals eeked it out.
update 3–Hamos appears to be Jan Schakowsky protege. Multiple commenters are now reporting that Hamos is a protege of Jan Schakowsky. That sounds pretty good to me.
If Hamos is great, and if she doesn’t pull this out, it feels like a lost opportunity for a progressive pickup. Terrible mistake on my part–should have done my research and gotten involved.
Update 4–Mark Kirk crushes tea party challengers in Republican Senate primary: To no one’s surprise, Mark Kirk cruises to victory in the Republican Senate primary. He currently has 56% of the vote, and only 19% for the closest challenger.
Update 5–I am calling it for Giannoulias: Giannoulias is going to be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Illinois. Hopefully, his scandals will stay local, and he will find a way to beat Kirk despite them. He leads in the polls right now, but keep an eye on this campaign. Could get very dicey.
No further updates tonight. This is an open thread on the Illinois primary.
Bangor Daily News has the map of the vote percentages on Question 1 in Maine:
Snapshot… a much closer view can be found here. Pink and dark pink are good, green and dark green are bad.
I don’t want to get into the official numbers by town and precinct again from election night, but to paint a broader picture.
As you look at the map, our numbers got worse as the population got smaller, excluding the heavily Catholic Lewiston-Auburn area, one of the largest metropolitan areas in Maine, which voted 59% and 54% respectively against marriage equality. Mike Lux asked me what the campaign did to organize in small towns. Mike, as many of you know, did VISTA organizing in rural Nebraska and worked in smaller areas all over Iowa, so he really has a bead on these things. In truth the campaign did a great deal to organize in smaller towns, but there is one tactic no political campaign can fully execute with money or resources or organizing. Part of the reason these small towns are so hardcore against marriage equality, Mike noted, is because in many of these communities, there are no gay people, or if there are, they are usually closeted. To some extent, no amount of TV advertising or direct mail or surrogate work will work as well as person-to-person communication with gay people in your community. The other item that helps, too, is religious outreach, which is where I saw a lot of external organizing going on- not just in liberal areas like Portland, but all over the state.
But I’m most interested in the gay neighbor aspect. In 1978, Harvey Milk played a major role in defeating the Briggs Initiative in California, which would have banned gays and lesbians from working in public schools. What he used as perhaps his most central organizing tactic was getting people to come out of the closet, to demonstrate that this gay person is your beloved schoolteacher or principal or aide, and thus move voters in a very personal way to vote no. This was also what made the Elephant Walk Bar at the corner of 18th and Castro so revolutionary- it was one of the first bars to have broad, open windows where passers-by could look in on the patrons, in 1974, where most or all of the bars had no windows and patrons went in secret. If you wanted to go, you had to essentially commit to being more out of the closet to the community.
We won that campaign with 58% of the vote, and a famous speech Milk gave during it is instructive today:
On this anniversary of Stonewall, I ask my gay sisters and brothers to make the commitment to fight. For themselves, for their freedom, for their country … We will not win our rights by staying quietly in our closets … We are coming out to fight the lies, the myths, the distortions. We are coming out to tell the truths about gays, for I am tired of the conspiracy of silence, so I’m going to talk about it. And I want you to talk about it. You must come out. Come out to your parents, your relatives.
The same tactic Milk used for school employees everywhere must continue to be used in these communities. We have to encourage people in these towns to come out of the closet and say they want the right to marry. State Representative Mike Carey, who represents heavily Catholic downtown Lewiston and voted in favor of marriage equality in the legislature, pointed out to me that in these kinds of votes, the default vote is for fear, and it is a huge barrier to reach one’s conscience if they have no personal knowledge of the issue. For all the “gay marriage will be taught in schools” ads our opponents ran in Maine and will run in other states that tap that fear element, we have to counter with people who can give voters that kind of personal touch on the issue.
Creigh Deeds on October 20: I'm against the public option.
Voters on November 3: We're against you.
That's an oversimplification, but not by much. Here's some data:
In the eight October polls taken before Deeds' comments about the public option he trailed Bob McDonnell by 11 points with 8 percent of voters undecided. Deeds' support was at 40.25 percent in those polls
In the 11 polls taken after Deeds' comments he trailed McDonnell by 14.3 with 4.5 percent undecided. Deeds' support was at 40.7 percent in those polls.
On election day, with no more undecided voters, Deeds lost by 17 percent. He won 41.2 percent of voters.
Summary: In the aftermath of Deeds' comments on the public option, his support, even as undecided voters finally decided, never really climbed. Either a lot of Democrats stayed home or the vast majority of undecided voters broke for McDonnell.
There are plenty of Democrats in Virginia these days. President Obama won the state by a margin of more than six percent. Recent Democratic Governors include Tim Kaine and Mark Warner. Both Senators are Democrats. But you have to get them to show up and you have to give them reason to be excited about your campaign. Also, when a policy is very popular and will actually help people in a time of great need, you should probably not oppose that policy. Just a thought.
U.S. stocks were poised to open higher Wednesday, as Wall Street cheered a number of Republican election wins ahead of the Federal Reserve's latest policy meeting decision.
And later in the story:
But positive market momentum appeared as investors were encouraged by several Republicans victories, including the governor races in both New Jersey and Virginia.
More broadly, the wins reflect a sharp rebuke by Americans of current policies in Washington, including massive spending programs that have helped grow the federal deficit.
"The election results suggest that perhaps the referendum of the Democratic Party, more specifically President Obama, is being challenged in the marketplace," said Mark Luschini, chief investment strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott.
So the stock market, which has been going mostly up for 8 months (apparently cheering uh…something), is set to go up some more this morning. And this is proof that investors are happy about the races for Governor in NJ and Virginia. Nevermind that a lot of investors, like Warren Buffet, George Soros, etc. are Democrats, apparently it is just a given that:
1. Investors are Republicans
2. Happy political results for Republicans = market goes up
Of course the market has been going up and down for the last month. I guess that's because, on some days, Republicans are feeling happy and confident and on other days they are feeling sad.
Obviously this is just as ridiculous as the "markets hate Obama" meme from last February which mysteriously faded away when the markets began moving upward. Amazingly this story is not posted as an editorial but asa front page story on CNN Money.
Anyway, even if you accept the premise, what does that say about the markets? "We like it when Democrats lose because then the gap between the rich and poor widens and we can buy another chateau."
California Democratic Lt. Governor John Garamendi has been declared the winner in the CA-10 special election. Garamendi will be more progressive than Tauscher, who was the chair of the New Dems when she was in Congress.
So that’s two nice upgrades in the House (from McHugh to Owens, and from Tauscher to Garamendi).
Democrats now have 258 seats in the House, up from 257. Whenever a party gains seats in congress, the voters simply are not rebuking that party. With the teabagger vanquished and an upgrade from Tauscher, that is a pretty solid night in the House.
Both Owens and Garamendi will be sworn in before the weekend vote in the House on health care reform. The Committee on Rules in the House posted the bill tonight, which paves the way for a vote in as little as 72 hours. No word yet on amendments, but more on that tomorrow.
Corzine is a real loss, given how few progressives are also Governors. However, with the economy in its current state, it is a difficult time to be an incumbent party.
Maine, as Adam describes below, is looking bleak. Enough to make your blood boil. The only bright side I can offer is that, once again, we are getting closer to winning these elections. Also, once again, we probably won them among voters under the age of 65.
If Democrats–whether Progressive, New Dem or Blue Dog–are going to succeed in 2010, then the objective economic conditions people face in their daily lives have to improve. It is only through a positive turnaround in the daily lives of average Americans that Democrats will continue to gain seats next year.
Update 48: This’ll be the final update for the night. Things are, to put it plainly, looking slim. We are in a deep hole by several points, at close to 90% reporting, and most of the rest of the votes yet to come in are from Yes areas. The yes votes started to report and dragged our totals down.
The campaign will be evaluating the race tomorrow and possibly after the absentee votes come in.
I don’t really have much else to say except this one hurts, in my gut, a lot.
Update 47: The No On 1 campaign manager, Jesse Connolly, just went down with us to the ballroom and announced that the race is too close to call and they are still counting. The counting could continue well into the morning. There will be no concession or declaration of victory, it appears, tonight. Things are extremely tight and no news media so far has called the race either.
I’m going to take a step away from my laptop and will probably post a final update before going to bed tonight.
Update 46: I spoke with Kate Knox, the campaign’s legal counsel. Here is how the recount procedure works:
The campaign has to wait for certification from the Sec of State, which will happen after all absentee ballots come in. In Maine, there is a no-excuse absentee ballot law and she expects there to be a “significant” number of absentees.
The certification takes a maximum of 20 days but is almost always done before then. The campaign has to collect 100 signatures and pay a nominal fee (ranging from a few hundred bucks to $10K but more likely to be a few hundred) depending on how close the vote is.
The recount is statewide, all or nothing. Not challenging individual precincts.
Based on past experience, the recount will take at least a few weeks and likely longer than that.
Update 45: The campaign is now directing staff to call town clerks to get final numbers in and look at our expected numbers there versus what they’re reporting. A lot of this leads up to a potential recount if the numbers are way off, but there are still a lot of numbers waiting to come in.
Update 44: Based on what we have and what other news outlets are reporting, now over 60% of precincts are in, including a lot of more rural places, and it’s looking like 51-49% against us.
Update 43: After talking with some people here, based on projections from the campaign and looking at the rural numbers starting to trickle in, there is a very, very good chance of a recount, and we’re making preparations for that.
Update 42: In Westbrook, a suburb of Portland immediately west, we won 55-45%. It’s a big mill town.
Update 41: Let me emphasize for those who are seeing numbers elsewhere- we’re at 57% after our more base targets that have nearly all come in- not overall. Overall I can’t talk about in detail but they are better for us than 50/50. The rural numbers are starting to come in, though.
Update 40: Places like Brewer went against us, 42-58%- those numbers are starting to come in and pull us down.
Update 39: WMTW-8 TV is reporting 24% of precincts in and deadlocked at 50-50%, 65,452 No, 64,467 Yes. We believe those don’t include the Portland absentees yet though, and they lag behind our reporting numbers.
Update 38: TABOR was also on the ballot, and it went down to defeat. Great news.
Update 37: Lull in reporting. For earlier numbers from the night from my first thread, click here.
Update 36: I now have city of Portland absentee numbers: 6,291 No to 1,762 Yes. That’s 78%-22% for us. That’s freaking incredibly good. That moves the overall city of Portland numbers to 73%-27% for us.
Update 35: We won Auburn 51.5-48.5%! That’s part of the Lewiston-Auburn metro area, heavily Catholic. Vastly different than Lewiston which we lost 60-40%.
Update 34: General update- most of our base vote cities/towns are in, and we’re at 57% overall in our targets. It’s a good number. We’re waiting for more rural parts of the state e.g. Region 4 to come in and a little of 3. See my earlier thread for an explanation of the Regions.
Update 33: OVERALL numbers in so far: 57% No, 43% Yes.
Update 32: Won the town of Waterville 54-46%. It’s 15 minute north of Augusta.
Update 31: York, ME, one of our base vote places, is 63-37%- very good.
Update 30: We won the town of Gorham, 64-36%, which is great news.
Update 29: Some video from the stage at the party downstairs- Jesse Connolly, Rep. Chellie Pingree, Gov. Baldacci, Maine House Speaker Hannah Pingree, Senate President Libby Mitchell. Go here to view.
Update 28: Final % in from the city of Portland itself, largest city in the state and a heavy base vote area- No 71%, Yes 29%, without absentees.
Update 27: We lost the state capitol of Augusta, 47-53%. Not good.
Update 26: I can’t write overall aggregate numbers, but we are doing well. There are 82 precincts in overall, and we are looking at key areas to be able to project.
Update 25: We won the city of South Portland 64-36%!
New York 23rd Congressional
(528 of 606 precincts reporting)
Owens (D)
Scozzafava (R)
Hoffman (C)
49.1%
5.5%
45.4%
Owens margin: 4,580
Update 13–Republican civil war to get bloodier: While I would much rather have had Corzine, and while I am still nervous about Maine, this win by Owens will cause even more damage in the ongoing Republican civil war. Owens won because he was endorsed by Scozzafava, who was herself torpedoed by most of the Republican establishment. Lots of finger pointing, and no clear result. This is going to get even bloodier.
Update 12–Owens wins: All national networks call it for Owens. With the remaining precincts, and the newly discovered lack of absentee votes, it makes sense. I have to admit, I am very surprised. Owens better fall in line on health care reform immediately.
Update 11: With 79 precincts left to report, 41 are from St. Lawrence (Owens), 14 from Lewis (Hoffman), 4 from Franklin (Owens), 3 from Madison (Hoffman) and 1 from Jefferson (Hoffman). That’s 45-18 Owens, with 18 unaccounted for.
Update 10–Less than 10,000 absentees: From xtrarich in the comments:
There were more than 10,000 absentee votes sent out before the election and some 5,800 were returned and must be counted. More absentee ballots, if sent before the deadline, could still be received.
Many of these ballots have already been counted. Less than 2,000 Fort Drum military ballots. That is another good sign for Owens.
Update 9–Military absentees will skew toward Scozzafava: As lord_mike notes in the comments, keep in mind that Scozzafava was still in the race before absentee ballots were sent in. As such, those ballots will not necessarily favor Hoffman.
Update 8–Owens will be ahead after tonight: Owens will be ahead after tonight, even with 4 precincts from St. Lawrence county not likely to report until tomorrow due to voting machine problems. The question is how far ahead he will be before the 10,000 absentees are counted. Right now, his margin is 4,175 votes, which would be enough.
Update 7–Remaining Precincts: There are 91 precincts left to report. This includes 46 St. Lawrence county (Owens), 15 in Lewis (Hoffman), 3 left in Madison (Hoffman), 1 left in Jefferson (Owens), and 3 left to report in Franklin (Owens). There are also about 20-23 from other counties, but their websites are down. That is 50-18 Owens, meaning that it still looks good for him as long as the absentees aren’t a landslide.
Update 6–I spoke too soon: Now Hoffman is closing, and perhaps I spoke too soon:
There are more than 10,000 absentee votes to still be counted.
Turnout so far is just under 120,000.
With Fort Drum in the district–the only place in the country where snow-based training for Afghanistan occurs–this is an extremely heavy military district. Those absentees will send this contest into overtime.
Update 5–Now Highly likely Owens will win: This is going to upset a lot of teabaggers, but it is now highly likely that Owens will win. 52 of the remaining 153 precincts are from St Lawrence county, which Obama won by 16%.
Update 4–County level results: You can see the county results here.
Update 3–Albany Project calls it for Owens (with about 70% in): The Albany Project has called it for Owens, based on many of the remaining votes coming from Democratic St Lawrence county.
Update 2 (with about 31% in): It turns out that most of these results are from Clinton county, which is the most Democratic part of the district. Expect Hoffman to close, and possibly take the lead, before long.
Update: For some context, there are three very Democratic counties (as least as far as Presidential voting is concerned) in the northern part of the district, two lean Republican counties in the western part, and a very Republican county in the southern part. I have no idea which of these have reported so far. If these numbers are from the Democratic areas, it probably won’t be enough for Owens to win.
Update 10–Christie wins: Damn it, damn it, damn it. AP calls it for Christie. Don’t expect the projection to be reversed, given what I am hearing behind the scenes. It’s over.
Update 9–Starting to get dire: I am feeling less and less confident here. The projections don’t look great at this point.
Update 8–4 big Democratic towns left to report: From a source, there are four big Democratic towns left to report in New Jersey. Still, going to be difficult.
Update 7–Corzine will get closer: Given the areas that have yet to report, Corzine should end up with between 45-48% of the vote, per 538 on twitter. Given that the total Independent vote looks to be around 6%, 48% would win, and 47% is probably recount territory. Expect a long night.
Update 6–site update: Stripped out some of the content in the left hand columns. Open Left is loading much faster now.
Update 5–exit poll toplines show 1% race: According to Josh at TPM, the exit polls show Corzine and Christie within one point of each other. This may very well be the nail biter the polls had predicted. The early results are from Republican-leaning areas.
Update 4: Real results coming in now.
Update 3: The early results are not from any precinct. Must be early voting of some kind.
Update 2: Early exit poll data indicate that Daggett supporters may have moved hard toward Christie toward the end:
In New Jersey, Republican Chris Christie took 58 percent of the independent vote, according to early CNN Exit Poll data. Incumbent Gov. Jon Corzine, a Democrat, took just 33 percent of the independent vote. Independents made up 27 percent of the voters in New Jersey race.
With Daggett only receiving 9% of the Independent vote, a late exodus of Daggett supporters to Christie may spell real trouble for Corzine. Damn it.
Update 1: On the plus side, AP says the campaign is too close to call.
Update 24: I’m going to start a new update thread and put some of the ones from earlier in the night in the extended entry in this thread.
Update 23: We won Bangor, 54-46%, third largest city in Maine.
Update 22: Campaign manager Jesse Connolly is live now on Maddow (9:19 PM).
Update 21: Let me do an overall roundup- we are getting the base vote numbers in that we need from Portland, its suburbs, and the college areas of Orono and Farmington. Bad news so far is losing Lewiston 60-40%, but not horrible. Still waiting on a lot of Region 1 precincts- where our other base votes are- and rural areas.
Update 20: State Representative Mike Casey, who represents downtown Lewiston, just sent me final total numbers- we lost 60-40%. The final reporting turned the tide. Again, that’s a heavily Catholic area, but the percentages aren’t great.
Update 19: Final numbers are in from UM-Orono campus- 81% No, 19% yes. In town of Orono itself, we won 73-27%.
Update 18: We won Kennebunkport, home of the Bushes, 61-39%.
Update 17: We won Bar Harbor, a town in “downeast” Maine- very small coastal town- 71-29%!
Update 16: We won Yarmouth, another suburb north of here, 66-34%.
Update 15: A huge cheer just went up in the room- we won Brunswick, a coastal town 20 minutes north of Portland with Bowdoin College in it, 63-37%. What we’re looking for.
Update 14: Marc Mutty is live on the local news talking about the silent majority coming out. Right.
Update 13: I just took a look at all the final numbers in from every Portland precinct. Portland is the largest city in the state. We’re winning each precinct by a touchdown or two. Portland is the uber-base of base precincts in the state, and we needed to do huge there, and we have. Mid-70s and mid-80s in terms of % No votes which is great in many places.
This is a thread for election results from Maine. I will be updating this thread from the boiler room headquarters as numbers come in. You can also follow updates on my Twitter feed. The earlier updates from the night are in the extended entry.
